Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[CyberToothCat]

What I think people either forget or don't understand is that if you go to 14 teams and reduce the conference schedule to eight games, you can carve up the divisions in such a way that Texas and Oklahoma would have to play teams like Cincy and Memphis once a decade, if that.

Look at it this way...

West: Texas, Tech, OU, OSU, KU, KSU, BYU
East: Baylor, TCU, Houston, Iowa State, Memphis, Cincy, WVU

That's six teams Texas plays right now (as they've played BYU in the non-con recently).  Create a cross divisional rival for Texas (Baylor) and OU (WVU) that are acceptable based on competition/brand/tradition, and then all you have to do is squeeze in one more game a year against a team that they are good to play.

I just keep getting stuck on BYU, and I don't like having to push ISU to the newbie division.

What about this alternative?
West: UT, TT, OU, OSU, KU, KSU, ISU
East: BU, TCU, HOU, MEM, CIN, WVU, Conn

This keeps us from adding another private, religious, cult school. All the major advantages for UT that you mentioned still exist. And we add ESPN's local darling instead of the weird Mormon problem.

[Panjandrum]

If you threaten ESPN/Fox to fulfill the contract, you can demand the pro rata increase of approximately $80 million a year for four teams whose conferences don't even demand that.  Over the remaining 8 years of the contact, that is worth $2.52B.

If we add two teams at the pro rata, it's $2.16B.  That saves ESPN/Fox $360 million.  Then, if we're probably being smart/conservative, we extend the GOR five more years at the same average payout assuming the bubble is going to burst to ensure consistent payouts.  ESPN/Fox may take that bet assuming they'll get us for less from 2025-2030, and we may sacrifice a little scratch on the back end for added security and predictable cash flow.

Create an extended stair step payout for the new teams so the rest of us can pocket several million over the next 5-7 years, and then all of a sudden, a few things happen:

1) Cash payouts for our 10 teams in the next 5-7 years will be on par with the Big Ten/SEC considering the extra money we pocket from the CCG, added bowl games, NCAA tournament revenues, and distributing the difference between the shares we ultimately steal from BYU/Houston/Cincy as they stair step.

2) GOR extends to the end of the LHN in 2030 which would give us a better opportunity to go to market at the end of the GOR with a consolidated rights strategy (assuming Texas may want that...)

3) Pac-12 TV deal is up in 2024.  It gives us options if any of those schools feel jumpy and our partners are willing to bring them in.

It could be a situation where we make an aggressive statement (14 teams, full pro rata) and negotiate down to 12 teams pro rata with an extension of the GOR for the reasons stated.

[kim carnes]

Why don't u guys just let it play out instead of trying to predict the future?  I mean holy crap, this needs to stop.

[Panjandrum]

Why don't u guys just let it play out instead of trying to predict the future?  I mean holy crap, this needs to stop.

I don't think this is the right thread for you.

[kim carnes]

Why don't u guys just let it play out instead of trying to predict the future?  I mean holy crap, this needs to stop.

I don't think this is the right thread for you.

I agree.  This is a thread for people who are insane.  Unfortunately, I don't have the willpower to ignore the insanity.

[Art Vandelay]

Knowing how Bowlsby completely mishandles this conference, he'll still trudge forward with expansion while simultaneously biting the hand that feeds and we'll be stuck having games broadcast on TruTV

[Emo EMAW]

If we add BYU, it will be a three horse race between them and Baylor and TCU to see who can run the trashiest program.

[RickRampus]

hey panj...


could you bring back the Adventures of the Big 12 series for the new expansion please?  I greatly enjoyed it. 

[Panjandrum]

hey panj...


could you bring back the Adventures of the Big 12 series for the new expansion please?  I greatly enjoyed it.

Appreciate the compliment, but I'm kind of done blogging about sports.

[RickRampus]

Kind of done doesn't mean done, and opportunity is at your doorstep. #16goalsandsuch

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

[Panjandrum]

One of the WVU Twitter Trolls (MHVER3) is saying that ESPN/Fox may pay us off to stay at ten with a 17% increase plus $40m for the championship game that we can dividge amongst ourselves. 

That would be a $7.4m annual increase over what we have now.  That's the best case scenario, IMO.

[BackPayne]

One of the WVU Twitter Trolls (MHVER3) is saying that ESPN/Fox may pay us off to stay at ten with a 17% increase plus $40m for the championship game that we can dividge amongst ourselves. 

That would be a $7.4m annual increase over what we have now.  That's the best case scenario, IMO.

Watching the message boards of the hopeful expansion colleges would be fun if that happens!

[Emo EMAW]

One of the WVU Twitter Trolls (MHVER3) is saying that ESPN/Fox may pay us off to stay at ten with a 17% increase plus $40m for the championship game that we can dividge amongst ourselves. 

That would be a $7.4m annual increase over what we have now.  That's the best case scenario, IMO.

Best case possible scenario or best case likely scenario?

[SdK]

I agree with the sqawk. I wish the conferences would make up their rough ridin' minds and settle in for a fun ride. I don't enjoy all of this speculation and uncertainty as much as some.

[SdK]

If I were one of the four schools that left, I'd be laughing so hard.

[Shooter Jones]

If I were one of the four schools that left, I'd be laughing so hard.

It would take a whole hell of a lot more than a little new logo realignment uncertainty to make Mizzou giggle right now.

[KITNfury]

One of the WVU Twitter Trolls (MHVER3) is saying that ESPN/Fox may pay us off to stay at ten with a 17% increase plus $40m for the championship game that we can dividge amongst ourselves. 

That would be a $7.4m annual increase over what we have now.  That's the best case scenario, IMO.

I don't think that he knows anything more than the average home maker, but that would absolutely be fuckin' sweet. For one, more money duh. But then, our chances of snagging legit schools goes up. How much up? probably not much, but still better.

I like 10 quite a bit. I like 12 a lot too, but only if schools added are legit schools. Fourteen is so gross I can't even describe. Sixteen is good if we're massacring the ACC or PAC to do it and we just have to shove 1 or 2 of our current members to new division formed.

So basically, I won't be happy unless we stay at 10 and make competitive money.

[Panjandrum]

This paints the TV partners being against each other as ESPN (Against) vs. Fox (For).

http://www.bcsnn.com/big-xii/9221-fox-continues-support-for-big-12-expansion-with-g5-teams.html

ESPN has had some issues with Big 12 expansion, but that is mostly due to the targets the Big 12 wants. The league has had discussions with and about Cincinnati and Memphis for months, in addition to Houston, UConn, BYU and others. The first four schools listed are all in the American Athletic Conference, which is under contract with ESPN. BYU is also tied to ESPN through a contract to air home games in Provo. Colorado State is the only team that the Big 12 has seriously considered and isn't tied directly to ESPN.

So the truth is that yes, ESPN would like the Big 12 to avoid poaching its hottest Group of Five property - the AAC - or take away BYU, which has a buyout clause in case a Power Five comes knocking. However, FOX wants, needs and is driving this round of expansion in order to compete with ESPN and avoid continually paying its competitor for content to air.

[Panjandrum]

Folks have been drudging up the old AAC contracts, and there is a provision that says if two Group A members or one Group A and one Group B members of the AAC leave, the media contract is voided.

Group A is UConn, Cincy, Houston, and Temple.  Group B is everyone else.

If we were to expand with two AAC schools, especially Cincy and Houston, it's going to cause a lot of chaos in the AAC, and ESPN has an interest in keeping that content in their stable.  They fill a lot of unattractive time slots on the cheap.  If we poach Cincy and Houston, a lot of those games will end up on Tier 2 for us, which means they'll be on FS1 or FSN.

BYU also plays a lot of unattractive late night games on ESPN that would need to be filled by a Pac-12 school or go unaired, so the other article does have some logical merit.

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/9071683/big-east-media-rights-deal-terminated-two-more-school-exits-according-sources

[Panjandrum]

So, long story short, (allegedly) Fox is good with us expanding with four, especially east, because it gives them more property in that area for early kickoffs, which would make CTZ Big 12 schools (i.e. Oklahoma) much happier.

If we take BYU, that gives FS1 a lot of options for late night programming during the football season, and that takes away from ESPN's ability to put them on ESPN2 on a Friday night after 9 PM.

[WildcatNkilt]

I would love to eff ESPN/Disney over as much as possible.  #imwithfox

[DOD Take 2]

This BCSNN has no other posts indicating they know anything - why should we think he has any inside knowledge on this?

[TheHamburglar]

So, long story short, (allegedly) Fox is good with us expanding with four, especially east, because it gives them more property in that area for early kickoffs, which would make CTZ Big 12 schools (i.e. Oklahoma) much happier.

If we take BYU, that gives FS1 a lot of options for late night programming during the football season, and that takes away from ESPN's ability to put them on ESPN2 on a Friday night after 9 PM.

Here's the part about that article that bugs me.  It starts out by laying the groundwork that Fox wants more tier 1 east of the Mississippi.  The potential eastern adds would rarely be tier 1 broadcasts.  I understand the Fox wanting more eastern context for FS1 point in the rest of the article.  The beginning just doesn't add up.  Maybe they can strike a deal where Fox pays a majority of the increase for 2 more and who can air the extra game in a certain time slot.

On the tier 1 thing, assuming the article is correct.  Maybe they're thinking some east coast viewers would be more likely to watch current Big12 games on big Fox due to increased interest associated with the local school's conference.

[MadCat]

I like the idea of people paying us to stay at 10.

[Trim]

I like the idea of people paying us to stay at 10.

Makes you wonder what we could get if we kicked out ames.