That sounds very pie in the sky.
All you're assuming is that Fox can get a dollar from everyone in those states. Yes, that's probably high, but that's roughly how folks have estimated the BTN's subscriber fees. If you get the Big 12 Network in your most basic tier like the Big Ten Network, and you can charge a dollar in each of those states for that channel, per month, that's what it equals. You then get a nickle or so from everyone in every other state. That doesn't include advertising.
Being able to charge that money in Texas and Florida account for almost $120 million a year alone. Connecticut is actually the #1 state in the country for % of cable subscribers per total TV Households.
Again, maybe on the high side, but you're hoping that the sheer volume of USF/UCF fans/alumni get that carriage across Florida. If not, just take their # of cable subscribers per DMA and multiply that by 12.
Because I've been criticized for long posts, I won't go into why I think we'd follow the Big Ten model, but because Fox owns all of our football cable rights and vast majority of T3 rights, they'd probably do the 51/49 owner split, too. So, I'm estimating using their model.
This assumes people want cable right?
Yes. But the demise of cable as we know it is hazy in terms of time frame. No one knows that that runway looks like. We just know that sports are keeping people tied to cable right now more than anything else, so these companies are still overpaying.
Other consideration...expanding opens a re-negotiation window with the TV partners after the Big Ten resets the market. Bowlsby said our rights are currently undervalued (no idea if that's true...). If they are, expanding gives us a chance to renegotiate existing deals.
Other other consideration...common thought is that Big Ten rights will follow a model that the Big 12 and Pac 12 use to help reduce overall financial burden by Fox and ESPN. If that's the case, Fox only has so many slots for Big Ten, Pac 12, and Big 12 football. A Big 12 Network gives them another slot to push a lot of games that can't fix on Fox and FS1.
Other other other consideration...we have a contractual agreement with ESPN, starting this year, to increase our games on their platform. This means Fox will get less of our good games. Us expanding means less C-USA on FS1.
What Fox wants is the best Big Ten/Big 12/Pac 12 games on broadcast Fox. They want that next tier of great games on FS1. Beyond that, they want to monetize what they've already paid for by shoving it on one network and getting additional subscriber fees for it. Hence, the strong theory that Fox is the one convincing Boren to go all-in on a network.
