Let's do Colorado state and Utah state
Utah State is likely the worst of the schools being tossed around. Colorado State wouldn't be bad, tho.
Colorado State is an interesting candidate, but they screw up the potential divisions and balance.
In the 12 team model, everyone wants competitive balance. But you have to make sure a few things happen:
1) You can't break rivalry games
2) Texas and OU don't want to play certain teams twice. OU and UT only want the RRR, OU only wants Bedlam once.
3) You most likely need a format where all of the Texas schools play each other, for the most part
If we went to the 12 team model, my guess is that we'd do the Pac-12 zipper where we split the Texas schools in half and then play nine conference games with two protected cross-division. That means the following. Let's just say we take Memphis instead of Houston...
West:
Texas
Texas Tech
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Kansas
Kansas State
East:
Baylor
TCU
West Virginia
Cincinnati
Memphis
Iowa State
From a competitive standpoint, these would be "balanced" divisions. Baylor, TCU, and WVU will keep this division competitive while Cincy and Memphis could potentially provide depth. You split Kansas and ISU so you have one bottom feeder on each side. In the west, OU/UT provide the marquee names while KSU/OSU/Tech provide the competitive middle. That sets up potential Texas/OU games with WVU or TCU/Baylor in the title game.
If you employ the zipper, you can have Texas/Tech play Baylor/TCU every year. OU can play WVU every year, ISU can get Kansas and Kansas State, and KU/KSU can both get ISU. Essentially, for the power teams like UT and OU, through the protected scheduling of seven games in this model, can potentially have the same schedule we do now if we expand. The last two games would flex every year based on matchups that the conference and schools can decide upon. If we want to match up good teams that may produce higher ratings, we can do that. If we want better teams to have an easier path to an undefeated season (i.e. what the SEC does), we can do that, too.
Now, Colorado State kind of screws that up because you have to put them in the West. So, does that mean KU or KSU goes East? The same question could be asked of BYU. No matter what, we won't go back to North/South divisions. There will be no Texoma division again. TV partners won't want it, half of the conference won't want it, etc.
Also, by taking two eastern teams, and extending the GOR out past 2025, there is a chance you can outlast the ACC GOR, and if FSU gets jumpy, you have options. You can put them in the East with another ACC team that may want to leave (i.e. Louisville), and move Iowa State back to the West, or you can get FSU, lump them in the East, and then go extend an invitation to BYU, Colorado State, Houston, etc. and put them in the West. Or you can move Iowa State back to the West and pull in UCF or something with FSU in the East to give them a closer, regional travel partner, and we could have two schools in Florida.
Going East first gives the Big 12 options going forward. Whatever we do, we need to do it with the potential thought/option of easily pulling in and integrating Florida State at some point, because they are really the only school of value that has a realistic chance of jumping to a new conference. As we extend out over the next decade, the financial divide between what they have and what all of the regionally located SEC schools have will be significant, and they're already struggling, financially. Unless some major windfall happens there, they may have no choice but to entertain options about ten years from now. And they definitely have enough of a following that they could get a really, really nice T3 deal via Fox Sports Florida.
