Author Topic: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)  (Read 12214 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 16154
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #25 on: November 17, 2014, 11:26:57 AM »
Prisoner's dilemma is the simplest explanation (obviously this was not drawn up for a murder):



If they both confess and betray, they both probably serve life sentences so that is out. 

Jay is already linked to it by Adnan, his own statements and once he is in, it makes sense for him to pin as much of it on Adnan as possible, minimize his role as much as possible, and provide mitigating circumstances (the threat to himself and Stephanie) to help explain why he helped hide the body.  Because Jay has something to offer the prosecution and is able to spin a plausible theory for the prosecution it makes more sense for the prosecution to hang on to him as a witness and get him for the minor role than it does to try and construct an entirely new theory and attempt to charge them as full co-conspirators.

As soon as Jay "confesses & betrays" it is too late for Adnan and so he maintained his stance that he is innocent as re-canting and attempting to sling the mud against Jay is a high risk/low reward, whereas shutting up is high risk/high reward.
@bentren

Offline ChiCat

  • Chawbacon
  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 14459
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #26 on: November 17, 2014, 11:32:28 AM »
I agree with you KK, but I just can't see an 18 year old Adnan not trying to take Jay down with him.  He would have to be pretty calm to say "This likely won't benefit me, so I'm better off playing dumb and letting Jay basically get off free."  Though to be fair, he may have thought there wasn't near enough to convict to him anyway and once he was convicted, there was no reason to change his story.

Offline CNS

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 34425
  • I'm Athletes
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #27 on: November 17, 2014, 11:34:39 AM »
Adnan has a 20 or 30 yr sentence as it is.  Trying to take Jay down with him does nothing to minimize that after his initial conviction.  Changing his story now only guarantees that he never wins an appeal.  Maintaining his story keeps his chance of getting out early or getting overturned. 

Offline Mikeyis4dcats

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5030
  • pogonophobia: n. a fear of beards
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #28 on: November 17, 2014, 11:39:55 AM »
a little better explanation of events (from the defense standpoint)

https://pdf.yt/d/PUUcby-AZWfEhcuW

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

  • smelly poor
  • Katpak'r
  • ***
  • Posts: 1419
  • slide rule enthusiast
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #29 on: November 17, 2014, 12:00:47 PM »
I'm still hung up on how the flasher guy found the body.  Sounds like the chances of someone just stumbling upon that body while looking for a place to discreetly take a pee are about as likely as someone just happening to start listening to dark side of the moon right as the MGM lion is roaring in the opening credits of the wizard of oz.

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 16154
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #30 on: November 17, 2014, 12:13:17 PM »
I agree with you KK, but I just can't see an 18 year old Adnan not trying to take Jay down with him.  He would have to be pretty calm to say "This likely won't benefit me, so I'm better off playing dumb and letting Jay basically get off free."  Though to be fair, he may have thought there wasn't near enough to convict to him anyway and once he was convicted, there was no reason to change his story.
I agree, but it is helpful to remember the order of events and the motivations of each party:

1) Adnan gives the rough outlines of his alibi to police the day of the disappearance
2) Jay is questioned later, giving him opportunity and motive to confess & betray

Jay: Once he pins Adnan, he implicates himself, but he sets and controls the narrative. This is the prisoner's dilemma.  It is all about risk and reward.  Jay had to assume that Adnan was going to set him up for this, and he pretty much uses this reasoning in the police interviews.  It provides a nice bow on his own motivations as escaping being the patsy for Hae's murder.  With the details Jay provides the prosecution fixes its eyes on Adnan using the motive of a lover's quarrel.  Jay plays his strong hand and wins. 

Adnan: Either he was innocent and gave a completely truthful denial he was involved, or he denied he was involved to prompt increased scrutiny of Jay. Remember, he doesn't know Jay was going to blame him for everything when he gives his first statements to the cops.  He would have to re-cant at that point and admit involvement.  The benefit of doing that just seems so obviously skewed against him.  It is really hard to tell the level of each party's involvement, but it seems like Adnan was involved enough to realize that admitting to his involvement means that he is going to jail for life with only the possibility of parole. He had a weak hand to play, but raising the stakes of admitting he lied and attempting to implicate Jay seems like a sure loser.
@bentren

Offline pissclams

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 41163
  • (worst non-premium poster at goEMAW.com)
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #31 on: November 17, 2014, 12:36:36 PM »
Adnan has a 20 or 30 yr sentence as it is.  Trying to take Jay down with him does nothing to minimize that after his initial conviction.  Changing his story now only guarantees that he never wins an appeal.  Maintaining his story keeps his chance of getting out early or getting overturned. 
he was sentenced to life + 30, he's not getting out.


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

New warning: Don't get in a fight with someone who doesn't even need to bother to buy ink.

Offline Panjandrum

  • 5 o'clock Shadow Enthusiast
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 11221
  • Amateur magician and certified locksmith.
    • View Profile
    • Bring on the Cats [An SB Nation Blog]
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #32 on: November 17, 2014, 12:43:20 PM »
http://mentalfloss.com/article/60016/10-crazy-and-some-not-so-crazy-serial-theories

^some other ideas

This is what I want to know about Stephanie, and what a weird coincidence for #9.

Quote
8. STEPHANIE AND JENN KILLED HAE

Here’s where things get a little crazy. If you dive deep into the Serial subreddit (again, not recommended), you get some pretty out-there—but then, maybe not so far out-there?—theories. One that crops up again and again is the idea that Stephanie, Jay’s girlfriend and Adnan’s close friend, was involved with Hae’s murder. Despite being close with both Jay and Adnan, no calls were placed to Stephanie on January 13. This is especially strange because January 13 was Stephanie’s birthday, and the whole reason Jay needed to borrow Adnan’s car was to buy Stephanie a birthday present.

To add more fuel to this theory, Adnan did speak to Stephanie twice on the night of January 12. Could it be he told her something about Hae that angered her? Made her angry enough to kill Hae? If Stephanie was Hae’s murderer, it would make perfect sense for her to turn to Jay—her boyfriend—to help her cover it up.

9. SOME DUDE NAMED ROY DAVIS KILLED HAE

Leave it to reddit to hone in on a specific, seemingly unrelated suspect. But maybe the craziest part about this theory is that it might not be so crazy at all. In 2004, DNA evidence helped to convict a 50-year-old man named Roy Sharonnie Davis III of raping and strangling 18-year-old Woodlawn resident Jada Lambert. Lambert’s murder happened in May 1998—just nine months before Hae went missing. Even creepier, Davis lived just six miles away from Woodlawn High School and even closer to Campfield Early Learn Center, the school where Hae was supposed to pick up her cousin. The redditor points out that Davis was also charged in 1996 with possession of marijuana. Could he possibly have purchased said marijuana from … Jay?

Offline ChiCat

  • Chawbacon
  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 14459
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #33 on: November 17, 2014, 01:11:57 PM »
I agree that then and especially now, he has no logical reason to change his story.  At the time he was an 18 year old boy who would likely be very angry at Jay for ratting him out.  I think it would take a lot of self control to keep from trying to take him down with you.  Its a very logical and calculated decision to keep your mouth shut that would be tough to make.  Maybe he doesn't think they have enough to convict him, so he keeps his mouth shut in an effort to get off.  At the point where he is convicted, changing the story only makes sure he never gets an appeal.

I agree that Adnan recanting wouldn't have looked good, but Jay's story constantly changing doesn't look good either (although how much scrutiny this was given in court originally is unclear). 

I guess while I think Adnan did it, I struggle with how cold and calculating he would have to be at a young age to keep his mouth shut the whole time.  IMO, he would have to be sociopathic to murder his ex-GF that he "loved", not get so angry at Jay he tries to take him down too, and continue to lie about it for 15 years/show no remorse.  Granted we are starting from a place where he murdered a girl he "cared" about so its probably not that big of a leap.


Offline bubbles4ksu

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5397
  • Son of Pete
    • View Profile
Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #34 on: November 17, 2014, 01:29:10 PM »
Jay would have gotten a deal for rolling on Adnan so he couldn't really bring him down too. The cops knew Jay was lying about some things but that was small potatoes.

Offline bubbles4ksu

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5397
  • Son of Pete
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #35 on: November 17, 2014, 01:30:13 PM »
Wait, didn't jay serve some time anyway?

Offline Tobias

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27899
  • hypoclique lieutenant
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #36 on: November 17, 2014, 01:30:39 PM »
Wait, didn't jay serve some time anyway?

think he got two years probation but didn't serve any time

Offline Tobias

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27899
  • hypoclique lieutenant
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #37 on: November 17, 2014, 01:31:30 PM »
Quote
The judge sentences Jay to two years probation, no jail time. His lawyer mouths the words ‘thank you’ to the judge. Jay leaves the courtroom with the only person who came with him that day, Stephanie.

Offline Kat Kid

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 16154
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #38 on: November 17, 2014, 01:37:59 PM »
Wait, didn't jay serve some time anyway?

2 years probation.  I saw a theory on the link earlier that says that he was a CI for drugs earlier, which would help explain why the cops scoffed at his talking a big game about being the "criminal element in Woodlawn" and "having a rap sheet."
@bentren

Offline Mikeyis4dcats

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5030
  • pogonophobia: n. a fear of beards
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #39 on: November 17, 2014, 01:42:04 PM »
I've probably missed it, but why did the first trial go awry?

Offline Tobias

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27899
  • hypoclique lieutenant
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #40 on: November 17, 2014, 01:49:48 PM »
I've probably missed it, but why did the first trial go awry?

they've only mentioned the mistrial in passing but never explained it, iirc...

careful googling (hand over eyes, peeking through fingers) makes it sound like the first judge mumbled something about adnan's lawyer being a liar, a juror heard it, and then passed a note like "since you've determined she's a liar, do we have to start over?"

Offline Mikeyis4dcats

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5030
  • pogonophobia: n. a fear of beards
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #41 on: November 17, 2014, 02:50:58 PM »
I've probably missed it, but why did the first trial go awry?

they've only mentioned the mistrial in passing but never explained it, iirc...

careful googling (hand over eyes, peeking through fingers) makes it sound like the first judge mumbled something about adnan's lawyer being a liar, a juror heard it, and then passed a note like "since you've determined she's a liar, do we have to start over?"

seems reasonable...

Online 8manpick

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 15935
  • A top quartile binger, poster, and friend
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #42 on: November 20, 2014, 10:10:49 AM »
No more until Dec 4 :curse:
:adios:

Offline Mikeyis4dcats

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5030
  • pogonophobia: n. a fear of beards
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #43 on: November 20, 2014, 10:26:04 AM »
No more until Dec 4 :curse:

also, SOA.     :bang:

Offline ChiCat

  • Chawbacon
  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 14459
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #44 on: November 20, 2014, 10:38:57 AM »
Sounds like they are getting tips from people.  I'm sure even the best intentioned are terribly unreliable but it makes for the possibility of the truth coming out

Offline pissclams

  • Global Moderator
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 41163
  • (worst non-premium poster at goEMAW.com)
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #45 on: November 20, 2014, 10:48:52 AM »


Cheesy Mustache QB might make an appearance.

New warning: Don't get in a fight with someone who doesn't even need to bother to buy ink.

Offline Tobias

  • Fattyfest Champion
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 27899
  • hypoclique lieutenant
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #46 on: November 20, 2014, 11:21:13 AM »
No more until Dec 4 :curse:

this is some bullshit

Offline CNS

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 34425
  • I'm Athletes
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #47 on: November 20, 2014, 01:48:39 PM »
Yeah, everyone donate.  I will kill someone and blame it on an unsuspecting person, make up a shaky story about how he did it, and make a deal for my own personal freedom so that I can find some other podcast to listen to if there isn't a second season.

Offline Mikeyis4dcats

  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • ****
  • Posts: 5030
  • pogonophobia: n. a fear of beards
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #48 on: November 20, 2014, 02:12:03 PM »
maybe they can do a serial on Marcus Raines, or even on what exactly Venables did.

Offline ChiCat

  • Chawbacon
  • Contributor
  • Pak'r Élitaire
  • *****
  • Posts: 14459
    • View Profile
Re: Better Late Than Never "Serial" Thread (Spoilers?)
« Reply #49 on: November 20, 2014, 02:21:04 PM »
Yeah, everyone donate.  I will kill someone and blame it on an unsuspecting person, make up a shaky story about how he did it, and make a deal for my own personal freedom so that I can find some other podcast to listen to if there isn't a second season.

I'll post from your account while you kill someone to provide inconsistencies