Shane

[michigancat]

If we had a full possession, I'd put our chances of scoring out of a timeout higher than 50% since we average 1.08 PPP. (That would be about a 54% chance of tying, perhaps). I'd still rather have Nigel take the open 3.

[Mr Bread]

Rusty just hit Tonya in the lips with his math stick. 

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

if there was 3 seconds left, then id agree with that logic. i know you put "for discussions sake" on there but with so much time left you've gotta account for the fact that ISU would score to win or tie after a nigel 3, to lessen our percentage. shane scoring does the same thing. calling a TO lets us run some clock down and gets the chance they score after we make a bucket down. also we could have gotten a 3 out of the TO. so the percentages are still way more complicated than were making them out to be and i definitely made them more complicated to prove a point, but 30% chance of winning from a nigel 3 just isn't right. i still go with the TO.

also a TO lets weber tell the guys who to foul if we don't get a bucket. we fouled a pretty good FT shooter after the turnover.

[kslim]

I enjoyed watching everyone on twitter being pissed at Shane, to everyone on twitter being pissed at the people who were pissed at Shane.

Looking back, that was a fun stretch on twitter. I wish I would have stepped back and just watched.

me too :(

[michigancat]

Yeah, I forgot how much time was left.

[EllRobersonisInnocent]

Hey guys, I pulled a number out of my ass like michigancat just did and it says that if we would have called a timeout our chances of winning was at 85%. Math.

[420seriouscat69]

Hey guys, I pulled a number out of my ass like michigancat just did and it says that if we would have called a timeout our chances of winning was at 85%. Math.

Who cares? You bet your farm again against the cats. 'Grats!

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

Yeah, I forgot how much time was left.

yeah. i kind of do too. oh well.

fwiw, Self called a TO in a tie game and theyre about to score.

[Lucas Scoopsalot]

Hey guys, I pulled a number out of my ass like michigancat just did and it says that if we would have called a timeout our chances of winning was at 85%. Math.

i would put it more at 87%, but that's just me

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

Yeah, I forgot how much time was left.

yeah. i kind of do too. oh well.

fwiw, Self called a TO in a tie game and theyre about to score.

man, just mushed myself. got a terrible shot out of that TO.

[michigancat]

This is interesting, feel free to adjust/debate my assumptions:


Nigel shoots with 20 seconds left:

30% it goes in, 50% chance we stop them - 15% chance of victory


Call a timeout, we try to shoot with 5-10 seconds left? Because we're trying to score in a small window, I'd lower the chances of scoring. Let's say 40% chance of a tie, which leaves us with two scenarios:

40% tie, 70% chance we stop them, which leads to overtime, where it's 50% chance of victory. 14% chance of victory


Shane shooting was clearly the worst option and I won't bother calculating. But even in this scenario,

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

yeah, ill give you that theyre pretty much very similar situations. i just like the idea of the coach having more control over the game more than a freshman who plays medium minutes taking control. a senior had the ball and made a terrible play. if nigel shoots and misses were all blaming him for not pulling it out.

but sure, rusty, probably equally likely scenarios if we go for a 2 out of the TO. if theres a 30%? chance we shoot a 3 out of the TO and 35% chance we make it (sprads/foster), our chance of winning goes up a bit.

also the chance we foul them and they make 1 FT to force OT is somewhere in there...

either way, chances of winning after shane turns it over are much much worse. he should know better.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Really, we should all be pissed at oscar for not having Foster on the floor in the first place. WTF, oscar?

[sonofdaxjones]

Really, we should all be pissed at oscar for not having Foster on the floor in the first place. WTF, oscar?

[michigancat]

but sure, rusty, probably equally likely scenarios if we go for a 2 out of the TO. if theres a 30%? chance we shoot a 3 out of the TO and 35% chance we make it (sprads/foster), our chance of winning goes up a bit.

also the chance we foul them and they make 1 FT to force OT is somewhere in there...

Yeah, I'm over-simplifying for sure - a 40% chance of a tie could be changed to like 50% chance of a tie to keep it simple but maybe do a better job of incorporating the possibilities of 3's. I think there's some tradeoff here - as you run down the clock, you make it harder to do, but you're definitely reducing your chances of scoring at the same time, because you're trying to score in a small time window. Obviously the NBA is different, but you can see how much efficiency decreases the later you go in the shot clock here:

http://www.82games.com/clock.htm

For comparison purposes, here are the "Pts per 100 Poss" NBA league wide averages:
0-10 Secs: 112.3
11-15 Secs: 102.3
16-20 Secs: 100.6
21+ Secs: 91.8
...it gets tough in the waning seconds of the shot clock!

[Rage Against the McKee]

You guys are completely disregarding the possibility that we pull in an offensive rebound in your percentages.

[michigancat]

You guys are completely disregarding the possibility that we pull in an offensive rebound in your percentages.

no, I'm purely including that as chance we score based on our PPP and the unique situation. At least in the timeout scenario.

But you're right I didn't in the Shane and Nigel shooting scenarios. An OR oppy may have been pretty high because of the defensive entropy.

[MakeItRain]

Curtis Kitchen ?@curtiskitchen  6m
Shane Southwell owned it on last turnover: "I had total tunnel vision, I'm not going to lie to you." #kstate #big12mbb

Their is a difference between being AGGRESSIVE and being FOOLISH.   Don't care if he got caught up in the action.  He had plenty of time to realize.... wooooah, maybe I should back it out (after he pushed it up the court and saw we didn't have numbers)

man you've posted this same thing like 4 times, and you're wrong

No I am not.  Shane never had any intention of kicking the ball out to anyone.  He even said, he had tunnel vision.  As soon as he crossed halfcourt, I could tell he was probably going to try to drive right to the lane and shoot or try to draw a foul.

What the hell does Shane saying he had tunnel vision have to do with whether or not a timeout should have been called? Is the coach supposed to be a mind reader too, get a grip.

[wiley]

Really, we should all be pissed at oscar for not having Foster on the floor in the first place. WTF, oscar?

Wait....so what your saying is (did not get to view and not overly paying attention at the end) Shane has ball, dribbles 1/3 of the court into 3+ defenders(?).  1.) Foster is not in and 2.) oscar didn't try to call a timeout?
 if that's the case me =

[MakeItRain]

Also, he worked the refs the second half and got the calls on our side for once. I thought that was impressive.

That was the Bruciest thing ever, he yelled at the referee while walking away, sitting down, and looking at the floor, it was a sight to behold

[MakeItRain]

Really, we should all be pissed at oscar for not having Foster on the floor in the first place. WTF, oscar?

Wait....so what your saying is (did not get to view and not overly paying attention at the end) Shane has ball, dribbles 1/3 of the court into 3+ defenders(?).  1.) Foster is not in and 2.) oscar didn't try to call a timeout?
 if that's the case me =

People, generally, are very poor at nuance and detail. This is a great example.

[420seriouscat69]

Also, he worked the refs the second half and got the calls on our side for once. I thought that was impressive.

That was the Bruciest thing ever, he yelled at the referee while walking away, sitting down, and looking at the floor, it was a sight to behold

He is so goofy, but man can it be entertaining at times.

[star seed 7]

Also, he worked the refs the second half and got the calls on our side for once. I thought that was impressive.

That was the Bruciest thing ever, he yelled at the referee while walking away, sitting down, and looking at the floor, it was a sight to behold

He is so goofy, but man can it be entertaining at times.

i wish he would entertain us with wins

[420seriouscat69]

He has. He's 47-20 as a cat. 

[wiley]

Really, we should all be pissed at oscar for not having Foster on the floor in the first place. WTF, oscar?

Wait....so what your saying is (did not get to view and not overly paying attention at the end) Shane has ball, dribbles 1/3 of the court into 3+ defenders(?).  1.) Foster is not in and 2.) oscar didn't try to call a timeout?
 if that's the case me =

People, generally, are very poor at nuance and detail. This is a great example.

Why?

sent from my phone while in the crapper