Read a pretty good article today.
link?
http://www.burntorangenation.com/2014/1/2/5263272/inside-the-numbers-big-12-hoops-preview-kansas-state-texas-tech-and
What worries me: Shooting, both that of Kansas State and its opponents. The K-State offense has not been particularly good this year. Among Big 12 teams, only TCU ranks lower in the Pomeroy offensive ratings. The reason is poor shooting. Kansas State has made only 30 percent of their three point attempts and 63 percent of their free throws. Both of those totals are costing the Wildcats.
Last year, Shane Southwell connected on 48-110 of his three point attempts; so far this season he is 15-52. Will Spradling, another solid shooter last year, is currently 18-57 from long range. The only Wildcat currently shooting a decent percentage from long range is freshman guard Marcus Foster, who has hit 35 percent of his threes.
Now, I think the shooting of Southwell and Spradling is likely to turn around. But even if it does, Kansas State doesn't seem to have enough fire-power. Weber's team will have to win with their D.
Which brings us to the following concern. Kansas State has held opponents to 0.90 points per possession so far this year. That is an outstanding number. But much of their success comes from the fact that opponents have made only 26 percent of their three pointers and have only hit 62 percent of their free throws; both of these totals fall in the bottom ten of D-I.
And both aren't likely to persist. Over the long haul, opponent three point percentage and free throw percentage tend to revert towards the mean. If these numbers do reach the mean, K-State will give up roughly 7 more points per 100 possessions.
I'm not sure if where he got his numbers, but I don't think he gave the full picture by just saying we'd give up 7 more points per 100 possessions.
If both our shooting and our opponents' 3PT and FT shooting settle to NCAA average in Big 12 play (34% 3PT, 69% FT), then the Cats will give up 2.6 (net) more pts per 100, or 1.7 points per game, at our current 64.5 possession pace. This could mean the difference in a couple more wins/losses.
However, its pretty much impossible (yet) to account for the addition of Jevon Thomas, and my guess is that his addition will lead to net improvements in both our offense and defensive numbers.
