There are nine "bubble" teams (defined here as any team No. 35 or lower in the NET rankings) with 5 or more Q1 wins: No. 35 Clemson (5-5), No. 37 Colorado St. (5-7), No. 41 TCU (5-10), No. 43 Washington St (6-3), No. 47 Texas A&M (5-6), No. 51 Northwestern (5-6), No. 62 Providence (5-8), No. 64 Seton Hall (5-7) and No. 68 K-State (5-7).
Of that group, only Clemson and Providence do NOT have a Q3 or Q4 loss.
I think it's 99.9% likely that we need to win tonight in order to get in and I'm not sure that makes us an automatic given that the computers hate us for some reason.