I'm home on injury leave for a few weeks and I'm already bored out of my mind, soooooo I watched (almost) every Big 10 snap from Nebraska's 2021 season to try to better understand Martinez's strange year, and see what kind of qb we'll be getting this year. WARNING: I am not a football expert, and this does not include advanced stats, mostly just what I can see from tv broadcasts.
Some takeaways:
They were actually a pretty good team last year; some really bad special teams, some really bad coaching decisions, and some bad turnovers probably lost them 4-5 games. I think Martinez's play probably cost them 2 games (michigan fumble with 2 min left during a tie game, and purdue, 4 int) However, he also kept them in some games (ohio sate) they probably wouldn't have been competitive with a lesser qb.
Special teams probably cost them games vs illinois(dumb safety, missed fg, missed xp) and ohio state (2 missed field goals, lost by 6)
End of game play calling was pretty bad, vs Wisconsin down 7 with 1 min to go and one TO they went for the end zone 4 times in a row from the 25 yard line, never tried to get 10-15 yards and get out of bounds. Even when Wisconsin just put their entire secondary on the goal line. Seemed like the coaching staff treated him like a Mahomes-esque qb and expected him to be able to go make plays without much support.
O line play was really bad. Like really really bad.
He really only had 2 receiving targets: FCS Transfer WR Samori Toure and TE Austin Allen. Those 2 players accounted for over 50% of his yardage. Their 3rd option had 380 yds.
Some stats:
Martinez completed 62% of his passes for 2863 yds (9.4 y/a) 14 td, 10 int (Skylar was 69.5% completion 2100 yds (9.1 y/a) 12 td, 4 int)
He also rushed for 525 yds and 13 td.
Their best RB rushed for less than 500 yds and only 4 td
Martinez strengths:
Rolling out and throwing on the run: Maybe it was just because the o line play was so atrocious, but he rarely stayed in the pocket. they almost always moved him around the field and forced him to throw on the run.
Scrambling: He's pretty good at getting away from pressure and getting the first down or at least 5+ yards. He had to do that a lot as we all know the o line was bad.
Short Yardage: they basically used him as a short yardage back most of the year. They'd often line him up in an empty set and run him straight at the line on 3rd and 3 or less.
Option: He's pretty great at running the option, they used is pretty effectively last year despite not having much of a running back. They often ran a jet option with their #1 WR Toure.
Martinez Weaknesses:
It's obvious here but, Turnovers: A lot of his Ints stemmed from trying to make a play out of nothing. His worst game vs Purdue he tried a shovel pass while getting sacked and a DE stepped right in front of it and picked it off. His only other multi Int game was vs Wisconsin. He had one puzzling throw where there was not a single WR in a 15 yard radius. Maybe someone ran the wrong route or something. On the bright side, he was pressured A TON and in general handled it pretty well. It seemed like the staff there didn't do much to try to help him out, he rarely had a RB safety valve to dump to despite the frequent pressure (granted they usually needed the RB to help block) By my count, 3 of his ints should be attributed to WRs dropping the ball or tipping it to a defender.
I think I only remember 2 or 3 fumbles and they were mostly strip sacks while he was running from pressure with the ball in one hand. The one that sticks out is a short 2 yard run up the middle vs Mich where he was stripped and essentially handed the win to Michigan. I'm hoping he won't be doing much, if any, running the ball straight into the line at K-State.
Accuracy: When he doesn't get his feet set he tends to throw off his back foot and the ball sails on him. He missed several open receivers like this and it attributed to 3 or 4 of his Ints
Ending thoughts:
I think his TO problem was mainly a product of the team he played on. He had little time to throw the ball, and he knew he was going to be the one to have to make a play. If the coaching staff can give him some easier options, and his receivers can get a little bit of separation I think that number comes down to that 4-5 number.
I expect Deuce is going to get a lot of catches out of the backfield again (shocking)
His running ability combined with Deuce is going to be frustrating for defenses.
My prediction is he throws for 2700 yards and 12 td with 5 int. Gains probably 350 on the ground and another 5 td.