I think osu and/or ou still need to win out for scenario two to hit
If either of them lose they are out at 3 losses. If one wins out they would be in a three way tie with us and UT, both four way tie. We would have a better record against common opponents than anyone in a 3 or 4 way tie. The only scenario in which we win out and don't get to Arlington is UT wins out, OU loses another, and OSU wins out.