The War of 1812 trade embargo by Britain turned the United States in to a manufacturing giant for 150 years.
It was and is pure folly to try and bully/dictate everything to China. Hope we see that this has not been effective.
Elaborate on your application of this to AI. You thinking we need to let ‘em have the fast chips?
Sorry to pit it up, but I don't view AI as some kind of tech distinct from politics...
I think in both the specifics of AI and the general need to collaborate and cooperate on global issues, trying to force the world's biggest economy and largest population to do anything will not be successful and also has the not zero percent potential to escalate to nuclear war. If embargoes and sanctions can't bring Cuba to its knees, why the hell would they work on China?
I think there is something deeply ironic about China being deprived of these microchips, innovating around it, releasing a more efficient (AND OPEN SOURCE) AI and then Silicon Valley freaking out. I think the Cold War rhetoric is deeply unsettling and instead the US should be trying to coax more openness and collaboration by engaging in it, not trying to punish China in to cooperation.
Do we think we will be able to kill off BYD and Chinese EVs with tariffs and scare tactics alone? I'll take the other side of that bet.
As far as AI changing the world this decade or even next, I am skeptical.
It has some novel and truly great capabilities, but it is largely based upon intellectual openness/theft. Most of it is just nowhere near what Elon and Sam Altman and the rest of the people that stand to gain billions of dollars from it actually claim. We are not on the cusp of creating the machine that will enslave us.
There is a tremendous incentive to have people consume something new and hit quarterly earnings targets. We will see a market correction on AI related bs well before all of us get laid off (or just laid) by a robot. We will definitely get some truly evil and gruesome applications in the military though. Of that I have no doubt.
