Poll

which statement best represents your view

ukraine has already won the war, it's just a matter of time before they restore pre-2014 borders.
0 (0%)
ukraine is winning the war, but russia could reverse course with extraordinary measures (tactical nukes, full mobilization, etc)
13 (39.4%)
ukraine is winning the war, but at any time fortune could switch sides and russia could win
6 (18.2%)
ukraine has fought surprisingly well, but over time russia's size and military might will prevail
12 (36.4%)
russia is winning the war, it's just a matter of time before ukraine surrenders
2 (6.1%)

Total Members Voted: 33

Voting closed: May 10, 2022, 07:29:55 PM

Author Topic: ukraine invasion poll  (Read 962 times)

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Offline sys

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ukraine invasion poll
« on: May 06, 2022, 07:29:55 PM »
i think i know how the board leans, but who knows.


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Offline bucket

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2022, 07:41:56 PM »
I believe Ukraine is winning, but they won't restore pre-2014 borders.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2022, 09:08:45 PM »
I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.

Online steve dave

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2022, 09:37:20 PM »
russia is without question losing compared to whatever their initial goal was. ukraine is clearly losing based on their people being massacred by russians for whatever goal vlad is trying to accomplish. giant loserfest basically.

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2022, 09:39:13 PM »
Everyone is losing except for the companies supplying military equipment to the United States Military
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2022, 10:09:27 PM »
I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.

why would they undersell civilian deaths?  they should be motivated to oversell them, if anything.
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Offline Sandstone Outcropping

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2022, 10:18:56 PM »
I believe Ukraine is winning, but they won't restore pre-2014 borders.
I think this is right.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2022, 10:58:44 PM »
I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.

why would they undersell civilian deaths?  they should be motivated to oversell them, if anything.

Seriously? They're underselling the casualties for morale purposes. The mission seems like it has more purpose, better results, and the leadership looks more effective if you don't have tens of thousands of deaths to talk about.

There are still nearly 40 million people living in Ukraine. There was a report earlier this week of 3000 Ukraine civilian deaths but the Ukraine is saying they've killed 20,000 Russian soldiers, that doesn't make the least bit of sense to me.

Offline SkinnyBenny

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #8 on: May 06, 2022, 11:04:03 PM »
I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.

why would they undersell civilian deaths?  they should be motivated to oversell them, if anything.

why do football teams publish rosters where they inflate their players’ height and weight? They should be motivated to undersell them, if anything.
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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #9 on: May 06, 2022, 11:10:15 PM »
They should be motivated to undersell military deaths and oversell civilian deaths.

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2022, 12:01:26 AM »
They should be motivated to undersell military deaths and oversell civilian deaths.

exactly.  they rely on foreign aid to continue the war.  that aid is easier to come by when the world sees russia as a mindless butcher committing war crimes and killing civilians.

incidentally, i've seen estimates of like 20k civilians killed in just mariupol, so i'm not sure that number (3k) is what ukraine is saying for civilian deaths.  it sounds in the neighborhood of what they're claiming as military deaths (which i do suspect is substantially higher).
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2022, 02:15:49 AM »
They should be motivated to undersell military deaths and oversell civilian deaths.

exactly.  they rely on foreign aid to continue the war.  that aid is easier to come by when the world sees russia as a mindless butcher committing war crimes and killing civilians.

incidentally, i've seen estimates of like 20k civilians killed in just mariupol, so i'm not sure that number (3k) is what ukraine is saying for civilian deaths.  it sounds in the neighborhood of what they're claiming as military deaths (which i do suspect is substantially higher).

It's civilian deaths but it's a UN estimate, not from the Ukrainians
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/05/02/over-3000-civilians-killed-in-ukraine-since-russia-invaded-un-says/?sh=1f1e4e6e649e

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2022, 01:32:51 PM »
The talking heads. 

.  If they're former military . . . they've never been in a war like this.   2.  Arm chair neo-cons . . . they've never been in a war.   They've only covered wars against countries or factions who at best could only muster small to medium arms that were in most cases old and dated.    The U.S. military hasn't been in combat against a standing army of thousands upon thousands of soldiers, armor, artillery and air power since Korea . . . a stalemate.   So much of a stalemate that Le May et. al. started talking about using . . . nuclear weapons.

So at the end of the day, these "experts" are mainly just pulling stuff straight out of their ass.

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Online Kat Kid

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2022, 01:40:16 PM »
I can’t see the poll on Tapatalk but I won’t pretend to have any idea what is going on in this war. I was completely wrong about the war yo start, expected a short war and now think the war goes on quite a while. But I have been wrong before and I am just as likely to be wrong now.


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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2022, 01:46:50 PM »
I can’t see the poll on Tapatalk

60% of the respondents think Ukraine is winning the war. I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #15 on: May 08, 2022, 06:59:24 PM »
It's civilian deaths but it's a UN estimate, not from the Ukrainians

oh.  well, the un has different incentives that ukraine and i agree with you that 3k is almost certainly way, way below the actual number (tbf to the un, it isn't clear in that story that 3k is an estimate.  it may be 3k verified and who knows how many more unverified).
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Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #16 on: May 08, 2022, 07:01:10 PM »
I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.

i'm curious on this.  what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?

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Offline SkinnyBenny

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #17 on: May 08, 2022, 08:21:41 PM »
Ukraine has also exposed to the entire world that Russia is a paper tiger. That alone counts as a W.
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Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #18 on: May 09, 2022, 12:15:06 AM »
I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.

i'm curious on this.  what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?

Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #19 on: May 09, 2022, 08:17:34 AM »
I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.

i'm curious on this.  what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?

Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.

That is territory that was already occupied or lost before this whole war started, though.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #20 on: May 09, 2022, 09:03:55 AM »
I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.

i'm curious on this.  what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?

Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.

That is territory that was already occupied or lost before this whole war started, though.

You're talking about Crimea, I'm talking about parts, if not all of Donbas
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #21 on: May 09, 2022, 09:15:32 AM »
Yeah, Russia could have taken Donbas just like Crimea without firing a single shot. They would have been sanctioned, but that's it.

Offline Cire

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #22 on: May 09, 2022, 09:47:38 AM »
This was a war of regime change in Ukraine and that has failed.  It's also galvanized NATO and "The West", it's also made Russia show it's ass with regards to their military getting mushed by Ukraine + NATO weapons/intelligence.

They can pivot and say that they wanted to secure Donbas or whatever but that clearly wasn't their aim.

I don't think that Ukraine knows how many of it's citizens have been killed and we probably won't know for a long time.  Russia isn't' going to announce it, it will come when people just are unaccounted for in the coming years.

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #23 on: May 09, 2022, 01:24:59 PM »
Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.

they say they want it back, and with respect to eastern ukraine i certainly believe them.  with respect to crimea, they say they want it back but i think it's fair to question if they are willing to bleed and die to retake it (and also fair to question if the majority of crimeans wish to rejoin ukraine.
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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #24 on: May 09, 2022, 02:41:38 PM »
Looks like the realists have entered the polls.
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