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General Discussion => The New Joe Montgomery Birther Pit => Topic started by: sys on May 06, 2022, 07:29:55 PM
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i think i know how the board leans, but who knows.
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I believe Ukraine is winning, but they won't restore pre-2014 borders.
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I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.
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russia is without question losing compared to whatever their initial goal was. ukraine is clearly losing based on their people being massacred by russians for whatever goal vlad is trying to accomplish. giant loserfest basically.
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Everyone is losing except for the companies supplying military equipment to the United States Military
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I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.
why would they undersell civilian deaths? they should be motivated to oversell them, if anything.
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I believe Ukraine is winning, but they won't restore pre-2014 borders.
I think this is right.
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I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.
why would they undersell civilian deaths? they should be motivated to oversell them, if anything.
Seriously? They're underselling the casualties for morale purposes. The mission seems like it has more purpose, better results, and the leadership looks more effective if you don't have tens of thousands of deaths to talk about.
There are still nearly 40 million people living in Ukraine. There was a report earlier this week of 3000 Ukraine civilian deaths but the Ukraine is saying they've killed 20,000 Russian soldiers, that doesn't make the least bit of sense to me.
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I'm very skeptical of the pro Ukraine propaganda. I know they've had some isolated successes, but I'm certain they're greatly underselling the number of civilian deaths, Russia is using missiles ffs.
why would they undersell civilian deaths? they should be motivated to oversell them, if anything.
why do football teams publish rosters where they inflate their players’ height and weight? They should be motivated to undersell them, if anything.
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They should be motivated to undersell military deaths and oversell civilian deaths.
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They should be motivated to undersell military deaths and oversell civilian deaths.
exactly. they rely on foreign aid to continue the war. that aid is easier to come by when the world sees russia as a mindless butcher committing war crimes and killing civilians.
incidentally, i've seen estimates of like 20k civilians killed in just mariupol, so i'm not sure that number (3k) is what ukraine is saying for civilian deaths. it sounds in the neighborhood of what they're claiming as military deaths (which i do suspect is substantially higher).
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They should be motivated to undersell military deaths and oversell civilian deaths.
exactly. they rely on foreign aid to continue the war. that aid is easier to come by when the world sees russia as a mindless butcher committing war crimes and killing civilians.
incidentally, i've seen estimates of like 20k civilians killed in just mariupol, so i'm not sure that number (3k) is what ukraine is saying for civilian deaths. it sounds in the neighborhood of what they're claiming as military deaths (which i do suspect is substantially higher).
It's civilian deaths but it's a UN estimate, not from the Ukrainians
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dereksaul/2022/05/02/over-3000-civilians-killed-in-ukraine-since-russia-invaded-un-says/?sh=1f1e4e6e649e
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The talking heads.
. If they're former military . . . they've never been in a war like this. 2. Arm chair neo-cons . . . they've never been in a war. They've only covered wars against countries or factions who at best could only muster small to medium arms that were in most cases old and dated. The U.S. military hasn't been in combat against a standing army of thousands upon thousands of soldiers, armor, artillery and air power since Korea . . . a stalemate. So much of a stalemate that Le May et. al. started talking about using . . . nuclear weapons.
So at the end of the day, these "experts" are mainly just pulling stuff straight out of their ass.
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I can’t see the poll on Tapatalk but I won’t pretend to have any idea what is going on in this war. I was completely wrong about the war yo start, expected a short war and now think the war goes on quite a while. But I have been wrong before and I am just as likely to be wrong now.
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I can’t see the poll on Tapatalk
60% of the respondents think Ukraine is winning the war. I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.
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It's civilian deaths but it's a UN estimate, not from the Ukrainians
oh. well, the un has different incentives that ukraine and i agree with you that 3k is almost certainly way, way below the actual number (tbf to the un, it isn't clear in that story that 3k is an estimate. it may be 3k verified and who knows how many more unverified).
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I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.
i'm curious on this. what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?
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Ukraine has also exposed to the entire world that Russia is a paper tiger. That alone counts as a W.
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I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.
i'm curious on this. what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?
Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.
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I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.
i'm curious on this. what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?
Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.
That is territory that was already occupied or lost before this whole war started, though.
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I have no idea how one could think that given they've lost territory that they'll likely never get back. They've already lost, at this point it's just mitigating the amount of loss.
i'm curious on this. what makes you think ukraine will not be capable of retaking lost territory?
Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.
That is territory that was already occupied or lost before this whole war started, though.
You're talking about Crimea, I'm talking about parts, if not all of Donbas
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60506682
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Yeah, Russia could have taken Donbas just like Crimea without firing a single shot. They would have been sanctioned, but that's it.
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This was a war of regime change in Ukraine and that has failed. It's also galvanized NATO and "The West", it's also made Russia show it's ass with regards to their military getting mushed by Ukraine + NATO weapons/intelligence.
They can pivot and say that they wanted to secure Donbas or whatever but that clearly wasn't their aim.
I don't think that Ukraine knows how many of it's citizens have been killed and we probably won't know for a long time. Russia isn't' going to announce it, it will come when people just are unaccounted for in the coming years.
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Do they want it back? While the Russian army hasn't bathed itself in glory, I do think they ultimately have the resources to outlast Ukraine. I think this ends in a treaty with Ukraine giving up territory in the east that was Russian sympathetic anyway.
they say they want it back, and with respect to eastern ukraine i certainly believe them. with respect to crimea, they say they want it back but i think it's fair to question if they are willing to bleed and die to retake it (and also fair to question if the majority of crimeans wish to rejoin ukraine.
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Looks like the realists have entered the polls.
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Looks like the realists have entered the polls.
I don't think it's realistic at all to believe that Ukraine is going to end up with a puppet government under the Russian sphere of influence. And I don't see how you could define a Russian victory as anything less than that.
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yeah, "winning" is kind of a vague term. i think russia's military will (and has been) outclassing Ukraine's to some degree, and I think the overtures at nukes will keep the west from getting too involved (i.e. significant boots on the ground). I don't think either side will be able to realistically claim a total victory or anything.
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yeah, "winning" is kind of a vague term. i think russia's military will (and has been) outclassing Ukraine's to some degree, and I think the overtures at nukes will keep the west from getting too involved (i.e. significant boots on the ground). I don't think either side will be able to realistically claim a total victory or anything.
I agree with this. I do think that winning for Ukraine has a specific look to it and that's the countries boarders returning to what they were in February, and I don't that's going to happen. I think Russia has suffered two measurable losses; the first is an actual loss of troops and equipment. That loss is a very real thing, I just don't think that Putin cares about it in the least. The second is the often mentioned loss of prestige in the Russian army. I don't think that matters at all, not even a little bit. Ukraine is and was always the most powerful country that they could reasonably fight a ground war with. Even if they out and out lost this war, it's not like Estonia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, etc., could feel like they could take Russia if they needed to. All of the other former Soviet republics would have no chance without significant help. Also, they have lots of nukes.
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With NATO intelligence and weapons support and enough warning, I don't think Russia would fare much better in any other offensive war. They were running out of food and fuel less than a month into this war. I'm sure they would fare better in a defensive war, but nobody is threatening them.
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I would also like to point out that Russian military rations are gross af. Like, inedible.
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With NATO intelligence and weapons support and enough warning, I don't think Russia would fare much better in any other offensive war. They were running out of food and fuel less than a month into this war. I'm sure they would fare better in a defensive war, but nobody is threatening them.
Come on man, that's doing a severe disservice to Ukraine. The other former soviet republics have a fraction of the weaponry and troops of Ukraine. They would absolutely steamroll the others. It would be akin to Belize and Guatemala trying to hold off Mexico. Russia may not have the best army, but look at all of the other countries that they could invade, woof. Belarus would give them the best run, but luckily for Russia, I guess, they don't have to worry about that.
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I would also like to point out that Russian military rations are food is gross af. Like, inedible.
I agree, friend :cheers:
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On the other hand, Ukrainian military rations are surprisingly decent. Advantage: Ukraine.
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How would Russia even get its armies into Moldova?
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i think russia's military will (and has been) outclassing Ukraine's to some degree.
i didn't want to debate this too much before the poll closes, but i'm very curious about the information you are using to make this determination, because i don't think it can be the same information that i've been consuming.
i also don't think the fairly concrete facts (russian offensive on kiev, stalled and retreated; regrouped and launched new offensive in donbas, progress very slow and concurrently retreating in the northeast) would suggest this conclusion.
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i guess one could argue that russia pretty unquestionably has the advantage in the air and at sea.
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i guess one could argue that russia pretty unquestionably has the advantage in the air and at sea.
I think Russia fighting an invasion and gaining (some territory) is a testament to them having the stronger military. Along with having superior air and naval forces.
I also haven’t been paying any attention for the last month or so.
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They've been mostly retreating and regrouping over the past month or so. Or as dax puts it, they are abandoning cities because a military simply doesn't stay in one place and Ukraine is taking back these empty cities at great cost.
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the poll has closed.
many more posters think russia is doing well, or soon will be doing well, than i would have guessed. my impression from the ww3 thread was that it was mostly just dax (and i guess still katkid) carrying that opinion.
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I don’t really expect Putin to capture Kyiv. I do think he keeps the east and a southern passage to crimea.
I think the $40 billion will definitely prolong things.
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A Ukrainian invasion? A Ukrainian invasion, you say!
https://youtu.be/85XTrpsfkkU
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I do think he keeps the east and a southern passage to crimea.
it seems like a hard ask to me. russia has better equipment, but fewer men and ukraine is getting more and better equipment every day.
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https://twitter.com/chriso_wiki/status/1524448245539393539?s=21&t=lftjg8somYcV5AraTljhzw
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Putin 4d chess to expand NATO so he can invade more former Soviet states in order to prevent them from joining NATO too.
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the poll has closed.
many more posters think russia is doing well, or soon will be doing well, than i would have guessed. my impression from the ww3 thread was that it was mostly just dax (and i guess still katkid) carrying that opinion.
I am one who believes that Russia will keep some Ukrainian territory, ultimately. Merely due to their willingness to throw numbers at this. I do think Russia will suffer horribly (monetary cost, lives, and loss of prestige) as a result, but this qualifier was not in your poll.
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the poll has closed.
many more posters think russia is doing well, or soon will be doing well, than i would have guessed. my impression from the ww3 thread was that it was mostly just dax (and i guess still katkid) carrying that opinion.
I am one who believes that Russia will keep some Ukrainian territory, ultimately. Merely due to their willingness to throw numbers at this. I do think Russia will suffer horribly (monetary cost, lives, and loss of prestige) as a result, but this qualifier was not in your poll.
yeah wtf, sys.
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yeah wtf, sys.
wtf what?
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yeah wtf, sys.
wtf what?
why were the poll options so restrictive? why are you putting words in our mouth? "doing well" wasn't even one of the options!
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i didn't want to define winning and polling becomes less useful when too many options are provided.
if i could go back and reword it, i'd try to change options 1 & 2 so that some respondents that chose 2 would feel that 1 better captured their views. otherwise, i'm pretty happy with the options i provided.
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I do think he keeps the east and a southern passage to crimea.
it seems like a hard ask to me. russia has better equipment, but fewer men and ukraine is getting more and better equipment every day.
NYT coverage has turned significantly more negative, hard to know what the state of things is but I think this is looking likelier
Restoring Rail Links and Canal, Russia Seeks to Cement ‘Land Bridge’ in South
Moscow claimed that its military had repaired hundreds of miles of track, and a key freshwater source was flowing again to Russian-occupied Crimea. Connecting Russia to territory captured in southern Ukraine would accomplish one of Moscow’s major objectives in the war.
https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news#as-russia-tries-to-solidify-its-land-bridge-ukraine-attempts-to-push-back-in-the-south (https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/06/08/world/russia-ukraine-war-news#as-russia-tries-to-solidify-its-land-bridge-ukraine-attempts-to-push-back-in-the-south)
“How much do we really know about how Ukraine is doing?” said Beth Sanner, a former senior intelligence official. “Can you find a person who will tell you with confidence how many troops has Ukraine lost, how many pieces of equipment has Ukraine lost?”
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But there may be a potential cost if the intelligence community cannot present a fuller picture to the public or Congress about Ukraine’s military prospects, Ms. Sanner said. If Russia advances further, the failure to understand the state of the Ukrainian military could open the intelligence community to accusations that it failed to deliver a full picture of Ukraine’s prospects in the war to policymakers.
“Everything is about Russia’s goals and Russia’s prospects for meeting their goals,” Ms. Sanner said. “We do not talk about whether Ukraine might be able to defeat them. And to me, I feel that we are setting ourselves up for another intel failure by not talking about that publicly.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html (https://www.nytimes.com/2022/06/08/us/politics/ukraine-war-us-intelligence.html)
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i do think ukraine is taking a crap-load of casualties these days (they don't report totals, but if you take zelensky's 60-100 + 500/day, it's obvious that it's a lot). and russia does seem to have learned from some mistakes.
but most of the military/intel types i follow on twitter (as well as inferences from the us and uk briefings) seem to think the basic story is still the same. ukraine has a manpower advantage and as they bring nato weaponry online, russia's equipment advantage gets smaller all the time.