Poll

which statement best represents your view

ukraine has already won the war, it's just a matter of time before they restore pre-2014 borders.
0 (0%)
ukraine is winning the war, but russia could reverse course with extraordinary measures (tactical nukes, full mobilization, etc)
13 (39.4%)
ukraine is winning the war, but at any time fortune could switch sides and russia could win
6 (18.2%)
ukraine has fought surprisingly well, but over time russia's size and military might will prevail
12 (36.4%)
russia is winning the war, it's just a matter of time before ukraine surrenders
2 (6.1%)

Total Members Voted: 33

Voting closed: May 10, 2022, 07:29:55 PM

Author Topic: ukraine invasion poll  (Read 963 times)

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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #25 on: May 09, 2022, 02:52:11 PM »
Looks like the realists have entered the polls.

I don't think it's realistic at all to believe that Ukraine is going to end up with a puppet government under the Russian sphere of influence. And I don't see how you could define a Russian victory as anything less than that.

Offline DQ12

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #26 on: May 09, 2022, 02:58:19 PM »
yeah, "winning" is kind of a vague term.  i think russia's military will (and has been) outclassing Ukraine's to some degree, and I think the overtures at nukes will keep the west from getting too involved (i.e. significant boots on the ground).  I don't think either side will be able to realistically claim a total victory or anything.


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Online MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #27 on: May 09, 2022, 03:20:00 PM »
yeah, "winning" is kind of a vague term.  i think russia's military will (and has been) outclassing Ukraine's to some degree, and I think the overtures at nukes will keep the west from getting too involved (i.e. significant boots on the ground).  I don't think either side will be able to realistically claim a total victory or anything.

I agree with this. I do think that winning for Ukraine has a specific look to it and that's the countries boarders returning to what they were in February, and I don't that's going to happen. I think Russia has suffered two measurable losses; the first is an actual loss of troops and equipment. That loss is a very real thing, I just don't think that Putin cares about it in the least. The second is the often mentioned loss of prestige in the Russian army. I don't think that matters at all, not even a little bit. Ukraine is and was always the most powerful country that they could reasonably fight a ground war with. Even if they out and out lost this war, it's not like Estonia, Moldova, Kazakhstan, etc., could feel like they could take Russia if they needed to. All of the other former Soviet republics would have no chance without significant help. Also, they have lots of nukes.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #28 on: May 09, 2022, 04:06:08 PM »
With NATO intelligence and weapons support and enough warning, I don't think Russia would fare much better in any other offensive war. They were running out of food and fuel less than a month into this war. I'm sure they would fare better in a defensive war, but nobody is threatening them.

Offline Spracne

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #29 on: May 09, 2022, 04:13:42 PM »
I would also like to point out that Russian military rations are gross af. Like, inedible.

Online MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #30 on: May 09, 2022, 04:31:31 PM »
With NATO intelligence and weapons support and enough warning, I don't think Russia would fare much better in any other offensive war. They were running out of food and fuel less than a month into this war. I'm sure they would fare better in a defensive war, but nobody is threatening them.

Come on man, that's doing a severe disservice to Ukraine. The other former soviet republics have a fraction of the weaponry and troops of Ukraine. They would absolutely steamroll the others. It would be akin to Belize and Guatemala trying to hold off Mexico. Russia may not have the best army, but look at all of the other countries that they could invade, woof. Belarus would give them the best run, but luckily for Russia, I guess, they don't have to worry about that.

Online MakeItRain

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #31 on: May 09, 2022, 04:32:08 PM »
I would also like to point out that Russian military rations are food is gross af. Like, inedible.

I agree, friend  :cheers:

Offline Spracne

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #32 on: May 09, 2022, 04:33:03 PM »
On the other hand, Ukrainian military rations are surprisingly decent. Advantage: Ukraine.

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #33 on: May 09, 2022, 04:57:44 PM »
How would Russia even get its armies into Moldova?

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #34 on: May 09, 2022, 06:53:25 PM »
i think russia's military will (and has been) outclassing Ukraine's to some degree.

i didn't want to debate this too much before the poll closes, but i'm very curious about the information you are using to make this determination, because i don't think it can be the same information that i've been consuming.

i also don't think the fairly concrete facts (russian offensive on kiev, stalled and retreated; regrouped and launched new offensive in donbas, progress very slow and concurrently retreating in the northeast) would suggest this conclusion.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #35 on: May 09, 2022, 06:54:53 PM »
i guess one could argue that russia pretty unquestionably has the advantage in the air and at sea.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline DQ12

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #36 on: May 10, 2022, 07:35:59 AM »
i guess one could argue that russia pretty unquestionably has the advantage in the air and at sea.
I think Russia fighting an invasion and gaining (some territory) is a testament to them having the stronger military. Along with having superior air and naval forces.

I also haven’t been paying any attention for the last month or so.


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Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #37 on: May 10, 2022, 07:39:18 AM »
They've been mostly retreating and regrouping over the past month or so. Or as dax puts it, they are abandoning cities because a military simply doesn't stay in one place and Ukraine is taking back these empty cities at great cost.

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #38 on: May 10, 2022, 07:52:23 PM »
the poll has closed.

many more posters think russia is doing well, or soon will be doing well, than i would have guessed.  my impression from the ww3 thread was that it was mostly just dax (and i guess still katkid) carrying that opinion.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #39 on: May 10, 2022, 08:11:35 PM »
I don’t really expect Putin to capture Kyiv. I do think he keeps the east and a southern passage to crimea.

I think the $40 billion will definitely prolong things.
@bentren

Offline Spracne

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #40 on: May 10, 2022, 08:16:27 PM »
A Ukrainian invasion? A Ukrainian invasion, you say!

https://youtu.be/85XTrpsfkkU

Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #41 on: May 10, 2022, 08:54:03 PM »
I do think he keeps the east and a southern passage to crimea.

it seems like a hard ask to me.  russia has better equipment, but fewer men and ukraine is getting more and better equipment every day.
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Offline Cire

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #42 on: May 11, 2022, 07:02:04 PM »
?s=21&t=lftjg8somYcV5AraTljhzw


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Offline Cire

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #43 on: May 12, 2022, 06:32:32 AM »
Putin 4d chess to expand NATO so he can invade more former Soviet states in order to prevent them from joining NATO too.


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Offline Pete

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #44 on: May 12, 2022, 07:26:09 AM »
the poll has closed.

many more posters think russia is doing well, or soon will be doing well, than i would have guessed.  my impression from the ww3 thread was that it was mostly just dax (and i guess still katkid) carrying that opinion.

I am one who believes that Russia will keep some Ukrainian territory, ultimately.  Merely due to their willingness to throw numbers at this. I do think Russia will suffer horribly (monetary cost, lives, and loss of prestige) as a result, but this qualifier was not in your poll.

Offline DQ12

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #45 on: May 12, 2022, 09:49:32 AM »
the poll has closed.

many more posters think russia is doing well, or soon will be doing well, than i would have guessed.  my impression from the ww3 thread was that it was mostly just dax (and i guess still katkid) carrying that opinion.

I am one who believes that Russia will keep some Ukrainian territory, ultimately.  Merely due to their willingness to throw numbers at this. I do think Russia will suffer horribly (monetary cost, lives, and loss of prestige) as a result, but this qualifier was not in your poll.
yeah wtf, sys. 


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Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #46 on: May 12, 2022, 07:45:01 PM »
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."

Offline DQ12

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #47 on: May 13, 2022, 08:36:14 AM »
yeah wtf, sys.

wtf what?
why were the poll options so restrictive?  why are you putting words in our mouth?  "doing well" wasn't even one of the options!


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Offline sys

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Re: ukraine invasion poll
« Reply #48 on: May 13, 2022, 04:11:42 PM »
i didn't want to define winning and polling becomes less useful when too many options are provided.

if i could go back and reword it, i'd try to change options 1 & 2 so that some respondents that chose 2 would feel that 1 better captured their views.  otherwise, i'm pretty happy with the options i provided.
"lol, i understand military logistics quite well, thanks."