Possible WW3 thread

[Dugout DickStone]

Search engine usage . . . the perpetual challenge for lazy Dug

https://www.businessinsider.com/western-fighters-die-in-ukraine-assume-be-easy-us-veteran-2024-5

beats getting raped by your fellow troops I guess

[Spracne]

https://x.com/GorillaOSINT/status/1787893273698189730

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1796190583632843080

The Dollop podcast has a 3 episode deep dive into Steven Segal's life and it is one of the most interesting, and most bizarre, things I have ever heard. Highly recommend.

I might try to listen, but I can't stand one of the guys--the one who always interrupts the story and tells non-funny high-pitched jokes.

[sonofdaxjones]

Search engine usage . . . the perpetual challenge for lazy Dug

https://www.businessinsider.com/western-fighters-die-in-ukraine-assume-be-easy-us-veteran-2024-5

beats getting raped by your fellow troops I guess

DeflectoDug with the usual lazy response and of course absolutely nothing to say about the actual topic itself.




Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sonofdaxjones]

https://x.com/GorillaOSINT/status/1787893273698189730

https://x.com/maxseddon/status/1796190583632843080

The Dollop podcast has a 3 episode deep dive into Steven Segal's life and it is one of the most interesting, and most bizarre, things I have ever heard. Highly recommend.

I might try to listen, but I can't stand one of the guys--the one who always interrupts the story and tells non-funny high-pitched jokes.

Relative?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sys]

in general, the use of drones in the ukraine war has featured a lot of twists and turns that i, for one, would have had a hard time predicting.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1805158287693808090

[Kat Kid]

in general, the use of drones in the ukraine war has featured a lot of twists and turns that i, for one, would have had a hard time predicting.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1805158287693808090

I think asymmetrical drone warfare is something that western countries should prepare for. I am very, very cynical that our military-industrial complex is going to be on its toes to catch up to the masses of cheap drones that will easily overwhelm expensive legacy air defense systems and cause a quick battle of economic attrition because a patriot missile battery costs $1.1 billion and each missile costs $4 million.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297

But why would American aero-space engineers want to design cheap systems when expensive ones are more profitable?

[sonofdaxjones]

The DOD has cancelled billions in new weapons programs (with collective billions already spent on RD) because Ukraine has rendered them obsolete before they even got deployed.

The same with attempting to mass forces. Which is a sure fire path to mass casualty events.

This is why #neocongE doesn’t get that this is not 1st world fighting Toyotas and RPG’s on a pile of rocks.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[sys]

I think asymmetrical drone warfare is something that western countries should prepare for. I am very, very cynical that our military-industrial complex is going to be on its toes to catch up to the masses of cheap drones that will easily overwhelm expensive legacy air defense systems and cause a quick battle of economic attrition because a patriot missile battery costs $1.1 billion and each missile costs $4 million.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297

But why would American aero-space engineers want to design cheap systems when expensive ones are more profitable?

take or leave the thesis expressed by the french guy, what i found interesting in this was the observation that, unlike artillery ammo or missiles, you can't stockpile drones, because they're likely to be obsolete before ever used.

https://x.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1805239407500259567

[Pete]

in general, the use of drones in the ukraine war has featured a lot of twists and turns that i, for one, would have had a hard time predicting.

https://x.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1805158287693808090

I think asymmetrical drone warfare is something that western countries should prepare for. I am very, very cynical that our military-industrial complex is going to be on its toes to catch up to the masses of cheap drones that will easily overwhelm expensive legacy air defense systems and cause a quick battle of economic attrition because a patriot missile battery costs $1.1 billion and each missile costs $4 million.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297

But why would American aero-space engineers want to design cheap systems when expensive ones are more profitable?

Maybe they make it up in volume?

Or in exceptionally pricy jammer proof drones and ground based robots?

Subs would be handy too.

[MadCat]

Stick, drone, tank is the new paper, rock, scissors

[sonofdaxjones]

While tossing out super expensive weapon systems by the bushel basket, programs that collectively the US has already spent billions on. The U.S. is also testing things like drone swarms, for example pods full of killer drones that get dropped from fight planes near battle areas.  We'll be seeing (more) assassinations by drone, terrorist attacks by drone etc. etc soon as well. It's only a matter of time.

Major props to James Cameron for absolutely nailing it 40 years ago, not sure about the time travel piece, but the rest is on a screaming train to reality.

The most armed conflict in the world since the end of World War II - The Biden Years 

[Kat Kid]

I think asymmetrical drone warfare is something that western countries should prepare for. I am very, very cynical that our military-industrial complex is going to be on its toes to catch up to the masses of cheap drones that will easily overwhelm expensive legacy air defense systems and cause a quick battle of economic attrition because a patriot missile battery costs $1.1 billion and each missile costs $4 million.

https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12297

But why would American aero-space engineers want to design cheap systems when expensive ones are more profitable?

take or leave the thesis expressed by the french guy, what i found interesting in this was the observation that, unlike artillery ammo or missiles, you can't stockpile drones, because they're likely to be obsolete before ever used.

https://x.com/ElbridgeColby/status/1805239407500259567

I saw something recently about a very effective jammer being rolled out that could down drone swarms etc. But that was in a year or so.
The fundamental asymmetry of an enormous defense budget and an army under budget constraints will always be forced to innovate more quickly. I just fundamentally doubt that there is a long future in the real world of combat for manned aircraft. Why would any military want to sacrifice maneuverability and the potential for loss of life by putting up a new round of fighters/bombers when an unmanned drone could do it?

See this recommendation:

For the US, those recommendations include prioritizing the development of “good enough” long-range drones that are cheaply priced to be acquired and replaced in mass quantities. That’s sharp reversal for the Defense Department, whose current suite of long- and medium-range drones are expensive, exquisite assets like the RQ-4 Global Hawk and MQ-9 Reaper — two in-demand platforms that could provide valuable tracking and strike capabilities against China but would likely be shot down over time.

“The United States’ current slate of drones does not suit a China fight,” the report states. “The DoD must develop and procure drones with the range to perform useful missions in this theater that can be purchased in sufficient quantities to make up for the many that will inevitably be lost in combat.”

https://breakingdefense.com/2024/06/us-needs-to-invest-in-cheaper-long-range-drones-for-taiwan-scenario-report-says/

But defense contractors and the airforce will fight kicking and screaming for manned aircraft going forward because they are the most expensive, most complicated systems and they require the most flight hours/training. Look at this joke. $1 billion for drone innovation in the Navy (1.)! Compare that to $2 Trillion for the F-35 system (which they are cutting back flight hours by 45% in the Navy to meet their budgetary targets which have already been obliterated) (2.)

1. https://www.newsweek.com/us-navy-drones-investment-department-defense-1914441
2. https://www.gao.gov/blog/f-35-will-now-exceed-2-trillion-military-plans-fly-it-less#:~:text=the%20Federal%20Dollar-,The%20F%2D35%20Will%20Now%20Exceed%20%242%20Trillion%20As%20the,Plans%20to%20Fly%20It%20Less

I say all this as someone that has been disgusted by the use of US drones to double and triple tap weddings in Afghanistan and the way in which assassinations and bombings are just taken for granted as the main mode of warfare that we will engage in. I fear that removing even the threat of an american pilot dying on a bombing mission and/or the use of AI (as Israel has used to compile kill lists: https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/05/02/israel-military-artificial-intelligence-targeting-hamas-gaza-deaths-lavender/) is the marker of new hellscape for humanity. We as citizens of the most powerful democracy on Earth should be raising our voices about this and demanding new arms control treaties as we embark on a new era that is as terrifying and potentially destructive to humanity as the nuclear age. Instead, we are passively allowing for the discrediting and dismantling of international law, international institutions, arms control, and peace treaties in the name of our own sovereign will to exercise maximalist control over those we deem unfit to govern themselves.

[sys]

I just fundamentally doubt that there is a long future in the real world of combat for manned aircraft. Why would any military want to sacrifice maneuverability and the potential for loss of life by putting up a new round of fighters/bombers when an unmanned drone could do it?

i take no position on how the tech will evolve, but right now the answer to that question is that it's because communication btwn the drone and the drone operator is the equipment's weak link.  maybe it will evolve to a manned command center aircraft carrying operator(s) in close proximity to a drone fleet they maneuver (my understanding is the f35 is already sort of along this path).  or maybe it will go to autonomously capable drones using some sort of ai to function without an operator.  or maybe someone will come up with communication avenues that are less vulnerable.

But defense contractors and the airforce will fight kicking and screaming for manned aircraft going forward because they are the most expensive, most complicated systems and they require the most flight hours/training.

as stated, i don't think this is a legitimate concern.  just typical conspiratorial hand-wringing about the "military industrial complex".  defense contractors will make what they're told to make.  you don't see any of them turning down contracts to manufacture cheap ass ammo or shells.

oth, i think it is very legitimate to be concerned about our ability to manufacture anything as cheaply or prolifically as china.

[Kat Kid]

I just fundamentally doubt that there is a long future in the real world of combat for manned aircraft. Why would any military want to sacrifice maneuverability and the potential for loss of life by putting up a new round of fighters/bombers when an unmanned drone could do it?

i take no position on how the tech will evolve, but right now the answer to that question is that it's because communication btwn the drone and the drone operator is the equipment's weak link.  maybe it will evolve to a manned command center aircraft carrying operator(s) in close proximity to a drone fleet they maneuver (my understanding is the f35 is already sort of along this path).  or maybe it will go to autonomously capable drones using some sort of ai to function without an operator.  or maybe someone will come up with communication avenues that are less vulnerable.

But defense contractors and the airforce will fight kicking and screaming for manned aircraft going forward because they are the most expensive, most complicated systems and they require the most flight hours/training.

as stated, i don't think this is a legitimate concern.  just typical conspiratorial hand-wringing about the "military industrial complex".  defense contractors will make what they're told to make.  you don't see any of them turning down contracts to manufacture cheap ass ammo or shells.

oth, i think it is very legitimate to be concerned about our ability to manufacture anything as cheaply or prolifically as china.

They are companies that are looking to extract profit and deliver returns for shareholders, everything is secondary to that.

[Kat Kid]

And I know it is mostly just an accounting ploy to try and make the F 35 not seem so expensive, but it is supposed to be de commissioned in 2088.

“But as retired Gen. Mark A. Milley, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, recently asked, “Do we really think a manned aircraft is going to be winning the skies in 2088?”

That’s from an article today that I swear I did not see before proclaiming the beginning of the AI era from the palantir ceo who I find loathsome but finds a quote we can agree on here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/06/25/ai-weapon-us-tech-companies/

[sys]

i think companies trying to make a profit will make more money if they make products that their only* customer wants them to build and less money if they make products that the customer doesn't want.



* - or at least a customer that has veto power over them selling to anyone else.

[Kat Kid]

i think companies trying to make a profit will make more money if they make products that their only* customer wants them to build and less money if they make products that the customer doesn't want.



* - or at least a customer that has veto power over them selling to anyone else.

I don’t want to continue to argue too much about this, but it is not my contention that the defense companies would rather go out of business than make something that the military brass want.

On the contrary, they both mostly want expensive things. I know we both have different opinions on the F 35 but a procurement process that led to each branch getting their own distinct version seems like evidence that there is lots of opportunity for defense contractors to work this angle and both sides to be happy while the defense budget balloons.

[sonofdaxjones]

You need to include Congress . . . who forces production lines and weapons programs that are not wanted to continue.

The sad thing is, we've spent collective trillions on weapons systems that are being rendered obsolete by the day.

[sonofdaxjones]

https://twitter.com/kenklippenstein/status/1805763876203495437

[Kat Kid]

Worth remembering how Fallujah started….

[Pete]

You need to include Congress . . . who forces production lines and weapons programs that are not wanted to continue.

The sad thing is, we've spent collective trillions on weapons systems that are being rendered obsolete by the day.

The entire world has the same problem with soon-to-be obsolete weapons.

Maybe a big assumption here, but assuming they can solve the connectivity challenges (eg if remote controlled then how, if autonomous then how to oversee/monitor), then I expect robot infantry in our lifetime.

[Sandstone Outcropping]

Putin targets Children's Hospital with guided missile strike after sleazebag Orban visits. Incredibly depraved even by Russian standards.

https://x.com/yarotrof/status/1810243668130910610

[sonofdaxjones]

#bluenonneocon/#neocongE gets very  when people start talking about peace.

[star seed 7]

The time honored diplomatic practice of bombing children's hospitals

[sonofdaxjones]

Or just regular old hospitals

https://www.msf.org/kunduz-hospital-attack-depth