we have a lot of leverage. Netanyahu is facing an election he is likely to lose
the us has some leverage, but it's easy to overstate it. we contribute about 0.5% of israel's gdp towards them buying weapons from us. that's not nothing, but israel's not going to be pushed into doing something they're firmly against for 0.5% of gdp. the un has no power, vetoing a un resolution is pr, nothing more. especially given how discredited the un is in israel, i don't think that's meaningful leverage.
my understanding of israeli elections is that netanyahu would only face an election in the next few years if govt dissolved. from all reporting i've seen, that's not likely to happen until the war is over. in fact, if anything, netanyahu's incentive to keep his coalition together decreases our leverage. it's his right flank that might dissolve govt and who would likely benefit from his ouster.
Their confidence is well earned because the US does not really act like the senior partner in this relationship.
every country is the senior partner in their own country and with regard to their own security concerns.
as the election approaches
the next scheduled election is in 2026. it only approaches sooner if netanyahu's govt fails.
I know war crimes are mostly a joke both here and in DC
i think allowing photos of prisoners to be published is technically a war crime, but other than that, i'm not aware of any israeli war crimes. civilians dying in airstrikes is not a war crime as long as they were deliberately not targeted.
as they are further crowded against the Egyptian border.
hmm, that's weird. i wonder why they don't pass through the egyptian border to safety.
so i responded to a few points, but none of what you wrote addresses the question i asked, which is what would the us's plan be in trying to force a ceasefire. a ceasefire at this point would leave hamas in power. for obvious reasons, that is unpalatable to israel and i see no argument that it is in the us's interests either.
grouping the election stuff:
Netanyahu is extremely unpopular. I am not familiar with all the intricacies of Israeli politics, but although Gantz is very right wing too, I think he is less so than the current government. I don't know enough about the other parties to know how much the coalition would change, but Labor being completely out of the Knesset is a pretty good indication of how much Israeli politics have shifted since Oslo.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/poll-finds-netanyahu-would-be-pummeled-by-gantz-were-elections-held-today/I think stories like this:
https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/2023-12-15/ty-article-live/senior-u-s-official-hamas-leader-sinwars-days-are-numbered/0000018c-6b87-db38-a9fc-eba7b5250000 will create an increasing gulf between the right wing government being egged on by politicians openly calling for an ethnic cleansing of Gaza vs. a population that wants the hostages freed. I don't know what the increasing calls for a cease fire by the entire rest of the world will have on the Israeli public, but I imagine it will have some effect.
Which brings us to--the international community. Israel and the US are not signatories to the ICC and the US has a law specifically saying we will send in choppers and Seal Team 6 to liberate any US war criminal being prosecuted by it, but it still has a little influence over even the US. We bother to cite the ICC when they criticize an enemy, we argue with it when it condemns our actions. It holds some moral authority.
The UN security council is way more influential, it can justify military action according to international law. Someone still has to do the shooting, but it can say it is ok. Even in its weakened state now post-Iraq War.
So yes, ultimately international law and institutions don't "matter" if a state can still act unilaterally, but being a complete and total pariah is not something that Israel could really pull off. I don't know what the limits would be, but it would be really tough for the United States to endorse something like the ethnic cleansing of Gaza even if they wanted to and I think we have to consider that being on the table because Israeli government ministers are talking about it.
As far as resettling refugees in Egypt, of course that is a non-starter for Egypt. For one, the Egypt already has some problems with the population in the Sinai being anti-government and some MB/Hamas aligned or outright Hamas operations in the area. They also aren't exactly a rich country and can look at Lebannon's plight just like the rest of us. Most Gazans don't want to leave. If they are left to starve in the rubble for another 6 months to a year maybe that will change, but what is your point there? That Egypt is somehow to blame for this? The entire region would rightly point to Israel's duties as an occupier.
As far as war crimes, I think a full accounting will be difficult but the UN has been pretty clear about the collective punishment of Gazans and there are basically more desperate reports each day about the food, sanitary, and health of the Gazans being at extremely dangerous levels. As far as intent, it is hard to prove to be sure but between the amount of journalists killed and more UN workers have been killed in Gaza than in any conflict in its 78 year history. Hospitals, Schools, UN shelters all have been bombed.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/11/14/middleeast/united-nations-staff-deaths-gaza-intl-hnk/index.html#:~:text=The%20United%20Nations%20has%20recorded,Israel%2DHamas%20conflict%20in%20October.&text=Note%3A%20Data%20as%20of%20Nov,a%20single%20year%20are%20shown.So maybe Israel will be completely exonerated, but a comprehensive investigation determined that that at least one Reuturs journalist filming from Lebannon was specifically targeted by Israeli tanks. The Israel response was:
Reuters presented the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) with its findings that the tank rounds were fired from within Israel and posed additional detailed questions, including whether Israeli troops knew they were firing upon journalists.
Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht, the IDF’s international spokesman, said: “We don’t target journalists.” He did not provide further comment.
https://www.reuters.com/graphics/ISRAEL-LEBANON/JOURNALIST/akveabxrzvr/So you are right that the Israeli military and government officials don't care now, but they may in the future. It will take a concerted effort on the part of the international community to make a difference and perhaps your skepticism is correct and they will never have to account for any of this.
