Author Topic: ChERNOBYL  (Read 3009 times)

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Offline Chingon

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ChERNOBYL
« on: September 21, 2021, 11:51:32 AM »
Everyone, get ready for a meltdown.  That's right it's that time of year again.  Introducing:

Chingon's Efficiency Ratings Now Optimized By Yard Lines

Here is brief summary of the columns:


So what are "net effective points"?  Essentially this is how many more (or less) points a team would score (or allow) for a whole game against an average team while taking into account field position.  Basically long drives which result in a score count for a bit more than a short drive that results in a score.  And an offense is penalized for not scoring on a drive when starting from good field position.   For example, an average team will score about a 0.9 points for a drive that starts on the 25 yard line (like after a touch back on kickoff), and an average team will score about 4.3 points when starting a drive from the opponent's 25 yard line.  I put actual in quotes because I still give some credit for offense that moves the ball, but doesn't score (that's because in principle in makes it harder for the other offense to score from worse field position).  If a team gives up a pick six when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line, that will result in about -11 points.  If the team makes a FG when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line that will result in -1.3 points, and if they miss it results in -2.97.

The adjusted pace gives the average number of offensive (top number) and defensive (bottom number) drives per game.



It's very early in the season and a lot of teams have only played chumps so they have inflated stats.  These should correct themselves soon. WVU is a good example of an outlier (that game against LIU was stupid) --- and it's skewed numbers are effecting its opponents like Maryland.

But in good news, coming in at 25 is our KSU Cats, jumping up 28 spots.  What is keeping the Cats back is the negative offense, which has cost us about 3 points a game so far.  Luckily our defense is stout at -5.39.



In fact, so far only KU and Oklahoma State have worse on offense.  But then again, only WVU has a better defense (and that's pretty suspect IMO based on the skew from the LIU game). 

Based on these numbers we should comfortably beat Oklahoma State.  We have a better offense and a better defense, and even better our strength is directly encountering their weakness.


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Online mocat

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #1 on: September 21, 2021, 01:42:06 PM »
this looks like it took more work than most chingsystems.


lmao at a&m's SoS

Online wetwillie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #2 on: September 21, 2021, 02:15:58 PM »
What does this thing predict the score of the game Saturday will be?
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #3 on: September 21, 2021, 04:18:25 PM »
What does this thing predict the score of the game Saturday will be?
Not sure I am doing it right (I am trying a new approach), but right now I get:

Kansas State 24
Oklahoma State 12

:dunno:

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #4 on: September 21, 2021, 06:01:47 PM »
how accurate is it when applied retroactively, to some of the more banner seasons like 2011, 2012, and 2014?

Online wetwillie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #5 on: September 21, 2021, 06:09:09 PM »
What does this thing predict the score of the game Saturday will be?
Not sure I am doing it right (I am trying a new approach), but right now I get:

Kansas State 24
Oklahoma State 12

:dunno:

This thing is perfectly dialed in, time for go live.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #6 on: September 22, 2021, 06:37:52 AM »
I think we score between 31-38 if Howard doesn't turn the ball over.

Offline Spaces

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #7 on: September 22, 2021, 11:30:43 AM »
I've had a weird feeling the Cats would win comfortably on Saturday and the ChERNOBYL numbers just solidified that for me.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #8 on: September 22, 2021, 12:16:40 PM »
OK, based on the numbers today by my silly predictor here are predicted scores for this weekend:

v spread = Vegas spread
v total = Vegas total
upset%  = probability of an upset
spread% = probability to beat Vegas spread 
UA  = upset alert

As you can see, there was an adjustment to the predicted Kansas State vs Oklahoma State score (making it a bit closer, but still likes the Cats to win).

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #9 on: September 22, 2021, 12:20:29 PM »
Hmmm.... that's a lost closer than I was thinking. Making me a little uncomfortable.

Offline 8manpick

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #10 on: September 22, 2021, 12:24:50 PM »
Does the model appropriately account for ND - Wisconsin being played in Chicago rather than in Madison?  Waiting on a call back from my bookie.
:adios:

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #11 on: September 22, 2021, 12:26:45 PM »
Does the model appropriately account for ND - Wisconsin being played in Chicago rather than in Madison?  Waiting on a call back from my bookie.
It doesn't. It's assuming it's a home game for Wisconsin. 

Online wetwillie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #12 on: September 22, 2021, 02:22:53 PM »
Man Arkansas is actually good now, kind of snuck up on me.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline meow meow

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #13 on: September 23, 2021, 08:05:38 AM »
Where is the Fun column?  need that

Offline john "teach me how to" dougie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #14 on: September 23, 2021, 11:04:34 AM »
Upset Alert and Fun could probably be interchangeable.  Upsets are FUN!

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #15 on: September 23, 2021, 12:31:48 PM »

Offline meow meow

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #16 on: September 24, 2021, 10:03:33 AM »
chernobyl is so flexible  :ksu:

Offline Katpappy

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #17 on: September 24, 2021, 10:13:49 AM »
 :love: that  :excited: meter.
Hot time in Kat town tonight.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #18 on: September 24, 2021, 10:56:15 AM »
Hawks are no fun :frown:
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

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Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #19 on: September 24, 2021, 11:21:42 AM »
arguably ching's best rankine system to date

Offline 8manpick

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #20 on: September 27, 2021, 09:56:48 AM »
Chernobyl did a decent job for me in my CFB pickem pool. 12-8 ATS
:adios:

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #21 on: September 27, 2021, 10:42:07 AM »
Week 4

You will notice some inconsistencies in relative ranking as compared to last week.  My data source is pretty erratic this year and they just now changed some stats from last week.

Anyway...the Cats take a bit of a tumble, but not as big as it felt it would be during the first half.  Still it sucks to see that Cats once again in the bottom half of the league.  Of course only time will tell, but when the year is done I suspect that Oklahoma State loss will be one we especially regret losing.


Online ChiComCat

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #22 on: September 27, 2021, 10:48:43 AM »
Tech moved up?

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #23 on: September 27, 2021, 11:06:44 AM »
Tech moved up?
Could be due to more teams falling further... But I need to check the status from that game to make sure my source didn't eff something up (as it has been).

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #24 on: September 27, 2021, 01:54:10 PM »
Predicted scores for the weekend:

I am really not sure about these....it's picking some rather large upsets this week.