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TITLETOWN - A Decade Long Celebration Of The Greatest Achievement In College Athletics History => Kansas State Football => Topic started by: CHONGS on September 21, 2021, 11:51:32 AM

Title: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 21, 2021, 11:51:32 AM
Everyone, get ready for a meltdown.  That's right it's that time of year again.  Introducing:

Chingon's Efficiency Ratings Now Optimized By Yard Lines

Here is brief summary of the columns:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/NpFaE.png)

So what are "net effective points"?  Essentially this is how many more (or less) points a team would score (or allow) for a whole game against an average team while taking into account field position.  Basically long drives which result in a score count for a bit more than a short drive that results in a score.  And an offense is penalized for not scoring on a drive when starting from good field position.   For example, an average team will score about a 0.9 points for a drive that starts on the 25 yard line (like after a touch back on kickoff), and an average team will score about 4.3 points when starting a drive from the opponent's 25 yard line.  I put actual in quotes because I still give some credit for offense that moves the ball, but doesn't score (that's because in principle in makes it harder for the other offense to score from worse field position).  If a team gives up a pick six when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line, that will result in about -11 points.  If the team makes a FG when starting a drive from the opponents 25 yard line that will result in -1.3 points, and if they miss it results in -2.97.

The adjusted pace gives the average number of offensive (top number) and defensive (bottom number) drives per game.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/BhCkW.png)

It's very early in the season and a lot of teams have only played chumps so they have inflated stats.  These should correct themselves soon. WVU is a good example of an outlier (that game against LIU was stupid) --- and it's skewed numbers are effecting its opponents like Maryland.

But in good news, coming in at 25 is our KSU Cats, jumping up 28 spots.  What is keeping the Cats back is the negative offense, which has cost us about 3 points a game so far.  Luckily our defense is stout at -5.39.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/lXBcZ.png)

In fact, so far only KU and Oklahoma State have worse on offense.  But then again, only WVU has a better defense (and that's pretty suspect IMO based on the skew from the LIU game). 

Based on these numbers we should comfortably beat Oklahoma State.  We have a better offense and a better defense, and even better our strength is directly encountering their weakness.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: mocat on September 21, 2021, 01:42:06 PM
this looks like it took more work than most chingsystems.


lmao at a&m's SoS
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on September 21, 2021, 02:15:58 PM
What does this thing predict the score of the game Saturday will be?
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 21, 2021, 04:18:25 PM
What does this thing predict the score of the game Saturday will be?
Not sure I am doing it right (I am trying a new approach), but right now I get:

Kansas State 24
Oklahoma State 12

:dunno:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on September 21, 2021, 06:01:47 PM
how accurate is it when applied retroactively, to some of the more banner seasons like 2011, 2012, and 2014?
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on September 21, 2021, 06:09:09 PM
What does this thing predict the score of the game Saturday will be?
Not sure I am doing it right (I am trying a new approach), but right now I get:

Kansas State 24
Oklahoma State 12

:dunno:

This thing is perfectly dialed in, time for go live.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on September 22, 2021, 06:37:52 AM
I think we score between 31-38 if Howard doesn't turn the ball over.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Spaces on September 22, 2021, 11:30:43 AM
I've had a weird feeling the Cats would win comfortably on Saturday and the ChERNOBYL numbers just solidified that for me.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 22, 2021, 12:16:40 PM
OK, based on the numbers today by my silly predictor here are predicted scores for this weekend:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/YCI5r.png)
v spread = Vegas spread
v total = Vegas total
upset%  = probability of an upset
spread% = probability to beat Vegas spread 
UA  = upset alert

As you can see, there was an adjustment to the predicted Kansas State vs Oklahoma State score (making it a bit closer, but still likes the Cats to win).
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on September 22, 2021, 12:20:29 PM
Hmmm.... that's a lost closer than I was thinking. Making me a little uncomfortable.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: 8manpick on September 22, 2021, 12:24:50 PM
Does the model appropriately account for ND - Wisconsin being played in Chicago rather than in Madison?  Waiting on a call back from my bookie.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 22, 2021, 12:26:45 PM
Does the model appropriately account for ND - Wisconsin being played in Chicago rather than in Madison?  Waiting on a call back from my bookie.
It doesn't. It's assuming it's a home game for Wisconsin. 
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on September 22, 2021, 02:22:53 PM
Man Arkansas is actually good now, kind of snuck up on me.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: meow meow on September 23, 2021, 08:05:38 AM
Where is the Fun column?  need that
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: john "teach me how to" dougie on September 23, 2021, 11:04:34 AM
Upset Alert and Fun could probably be interchangeable.  Upsets are FUN!
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 23, 2021, 12:31:48 PM
Where is the Fun column?  need that
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/blqQb.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: meow meow on September 24, 2021, 10:03:33 AM
chernobyl is so flexible  :ksu:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Katpappy on September 24, 2021, 10:13:49 AM
 :love: that  :excited: meter.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: DaBigTrain on September 24, 2021, 10:56:15 AM
Hawks are no fun :frown:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on September 24, 2021, 11:21:42 AM
arguably ching's best rankine system to date
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: 8manpick on September 27, 2021, 09:56:48 AM
Chernobyl did a decent job for me in my CFB pickem pool. 12-8 ATS
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 27, 2021, 10:42:07 AM
Week 4
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/vGX4y.png)
You will notice some inconsistencies in relative ranking as compared to last week.  My data source is pretty erratic this year and they just now changed some stats from last week.
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/rxoIp.png)
Anyway...the Cats take a bit of a tumble, but not as big as it felt it would be during the first half.  Still it sucks to see that Cats once again in the bottom half of the league.  Of course only time will tell, but when the year is done I suspect that Oklahoma State loss will be one we especially regret losing.

Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: ChiComCat on September 27, 2021, 10:48:43 AM
Tech moved up?
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 27, 2021, 11:06:44 AM
Tech moved up?
Could be due to more teams falling further... But I need to check the status from that game to make sure my source didn't eff something up (as it has been).
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 27, 2021, 01:54:10 PM
Predicted scores for the weekend:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/2xuoR.png)
I am really not sure about these....it's picking some rather large upsets this week.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wiley on September 27, 2021, 02:19:25 PM
Texas Tech is without Tyler Shoughfor a bit.  I don't know if your predictor takes that into account.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: DaBigTrain on September 27, 2021, 02:20:13 PM
ChERNOBYL predicts the KU game will be TWICE as fun as this last game  :excited:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on September 27, 2021, 02:30:01 PM
Texas Tech is without Tyler Shoughfor a bit.  I don't know if your predictor takes that into account.
It doesn't. It only uses the adjusted efficiency stats (offense, defense, possessions) from ChERNOBYL.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 01, 2021, 12:31:59 PM
Well my data source made some more updates, so here is a revised prediction set:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/Hh0sZ.png)

and a Big 12 ranking:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/k8uVN.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 04, 2021, 10:43:26 AM
Week 5:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/5TFat.png)

Big 12:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/LhgJg.png)

Cat actually move up a bit despite falling to second to last in the Big 12.  Overall the conference looks pretty solid (outside of KU of course), with a bunch of teams clustered between 29 and 41.

Oklahoma State keeps on winning despite having only a 47% predicted win percentage (which has them as the "luckiest" team in all of CFB --- closely behind is Oklahoma).

I thought it might be fun to track the Nu Big 12:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/vYhKC.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on October 04, 2021, 01:05:10 PM
Chernobyl hates the crap out of BYU
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 04, 2021, 01:22:16 PM
Chernobyl hates the crap out of BYU

As it should.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on October 04, 2021, 04:41:10 PM
Week 5 is really late in the year for these ratings to be as volatile as they are. Some of these are completely nonsensical starting with Rutgers. I didn't even notice they were 10th last week. A 13 place drop is crazy, but they're still way over valued.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 05, 2021, 07:52:12 AM
Volatility is a feature not a bug for this system. Teams like Rutgers et al will fall off if they keep losing, but they have good numbers (if we assume my feed is not rough ridin' stuff up still --- such I haven't found any obvious errors).
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wiley on October 05, 2021, 03:55:53 PM


is a feature not a bug.

How to say you're a developer without saying "I'm a developer"
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: DaBigTrain on October 05, 2021, 04:11:49 PM


is a feature not a bug.

How to say you're a developer without saying "I'm a developer"

 :love: :love: :love:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: mocat on October 06, 2021, 09:15:12 AM
Week 5 is really late in the year for these ratings to be as volatile as they are. Some of these are completely nonsensical starting with Rutgers. I didn't even notice they were 10th last week. A 13 place drop is crazy, but they're still way over valued.

it's what happens when the data is purely based on this year. if you don't include priors, things will be volatile for a while
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 07, 2021, 09:57:52 AM
Picks for Week 6:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/mdESr.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on October 07, 2021, 11:00:49 AM
UT winning the RRR by more than a TD! Bold and daring predicto.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on October 07, 2021, 12:38:18 PM
my favorite thing about ChERNOBYL is the volatility. It has correctly picked some upsets, and has also picked some upsets that did not end up being even close. What i'm saying is, take all the upset picks, and bet all of them. probably around 1/2 will lose but the other 1/2 will more than cover the losses.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 11, 2021, 10:03:00 AM
Week 6:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/aJFlk.png)
Big year so far for the Big Ten.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/fuFeo.png)


Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on October 11, 2021, 10:08:51 AM
my favorite thing about ChERNOBYL is the volatility. It has correctly picked some upsets, and has also picked some upsets that did not end up being even close. What i'm saying is, take all the upset picks, and bet all of them. probably around 1/2 will lose but the other 1/2 will more than cover the losses.

I too like the volatility. It helps keep things interesting in my opinion.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on October 11, 2021, 10:10:06 AM
Big 10 East!
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: meow meow on October 11, 2021, 10:14:18 AM
Nebraska higher than Okie State is interesting
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on October 11, 2021, 10:15:11 AM
I swear to god if Chernobyl picks Iowa state to win on Saturday I’m going to burn this place to the ground
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 11, 2021, 10:18:38 AM
Picks:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/5O2Pc.png)
:frown: but that's without the computers knowing that Skylar is QB again...

(sorry @wetwillie)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on October 11, 2021, 10:47:24 AM
Oh if it’s a flawed model without Skylar I’m Gucci.  He’s good for more than 2 points.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on October 11, 2021, 12:09:15 PM
If we hold Iowa State to 19 points, then I like our chances
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on October 11, 2021, 01:05:18 PM
I think we blow them out.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 14, 2021, 03:19:20 PM
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/d3C8v.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: ChiComCat on October 15, 2021, 11:08:45 AM
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/d3C8v.png)

KU is a horrendous anchor on this conference
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on October 15, 2021, 11:34:36 AM
DAMN... I mean, every conference has one, but the divide between them and everyone else... wow
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MadCat on October 15, 2021, 04:53:27 PM
They are the junk in our trunk
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 18, 2021, 10:19:34 AM
Week 7:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/X6VYt.png)

Oklahoma State keeps spitting in ChERNOBYL's face and just wins.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/hCB62.png)

On a neutral field, the Cats would only be favored against Tech and KU in the rest of our games.  Perhaps not coincidentally, Tech and KU are the only Big 12 teams with a worse defense at this point in the year.


Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 18, 2021, 10:23:34 AM
KSU in *bold*.

Ranking
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/aB8AH.png)

Offense
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/iaHFn.png)

Defense
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/tpLb2.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: michigancat on October 18, 2021, 10:30:43 AM
Week 7:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/X6VYt.png)

Oklahoma State keeps spitting in ChERNOBYL's face and just wins.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/hCB62.png)

On a neutral field, the Cats would only be favored against Tech and KU in the rest of our games.  Perhaps not coincidentally, Tech and KU are the only Big 12 teams with a worse defense at this point in the year.




how is WVU lower than us but still favored on a neutral field?
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 18, 2021, 10:36:08 AM
KSU has better wins and losses than WVU which gives us a higher accomplishment component, but their offensive and defensive stats are better than ours and say they've been rather "unlucky"  and should have won more. 
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 18, 2021, 01:55:17 PM
For fun, the colors of college football:

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/VLbEA.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: michigancat on October 18, 2021, 02:34:05 PM
KSU has better wins and losses than WVU which gives us a higher accomplishment component, but their offensive and defensive stats are better than ours and say they've been rather "unlucky"  and should have won more. 

that seems like they should be ranked ahead of us then
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 18, 2021, 02:49:50 PM
KSU has better wins and losses than WVU which gives us a higher accomplishment component, but their offensive and defensive stats are better than ours and say they've been rather "unlucky"  and should have won more. 

that seems like they should be ranked ahead of us then
But that's not how I made it.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on October 18, 2021, 02:51:11 PM
Week 7:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/X6VYt.png)

Oklahoma State keeps spitting in ChERNOBYL's face and just wins.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/hCB62.png)

On a neutral field, the Cats would only be favored against Tech and KU in the rest of our games.  Perhaps not coincidentally, Tech and KU are the only Big 12 teams with a worse defense at this point in the year.

Guess it's a good thing none of these games will be played on a neutral field then and we'll also be favored against West Virginia.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 18, 2021, 03:17:30 PM
Week 8 Pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/ZV2uB.png)

It we were at home, it would have picked us. 
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on October 18, 2021, 03:59:56 PM
A rough ridin' tie? Take that thing out back.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 25, 2021, 09:59:14 AM
Week 8:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/fHoLI.png)

Right now there is a pretty big gap between UGA and everyone else.  Cincinnati's schedule is starting to cost them a bit, but if they keep winning they might creep back up again (yes it seems weird that ND is ranked ahead of them --- but comes down to ND having better wins right now and head-to-head isn't given extra weight).

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/VPbaN.png)

KSU is firmly part of the middle group of WVU, TCU, and Tech (Texas miiiight slide down there eventually too, we'll see) --- where each team could easily beat the other.

KSU is really trying to limit possessions, we easily play the slowest pace of any Big 12 team.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 25, 2021, 11:13:32 AM
Ranking:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/9l4oA.png)

Offense:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/XoHJW.png)

Defense:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/mEbBZ.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on October 25, 2021, 11:25:00 AM
Week 9 pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/4w7YP.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on October 25, 2021, 11:57:23 AM
Pull off a 4 game win streak against the bottom half and get 7 wins and call it a day. 
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on October 26, 2021, 10:31:13 AM
I could be very wrong, but I think TCU is going to be a tougher opponent for us than Tech was. Their rushing attack averages more yards per game than Tech, their offense averages more yards per game than Tech, their TOP is greater than Tech, their 3rd down conversion rate is higher than Tech (which is already an issue for us), they allow fewer sacks, and have a higher touchdown percentage when they get into the red zone.

We may still come out on top, and I hope we do, but I could also see us losing this one as well. We won't be able to play the sloppy game we did in Lubbock and win.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 01, 2021, 12:18:37 PM
Week 9:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/VvJ5U.png)

I can't imagine how bad that Bowling Green loss feels for Gopher fans.

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/UtbMn.png)
Cats are climbing back up!
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Shooter Jones on November 01, 2021, 12:21:44 PM
So we haven't beat anyone worth a crap, but have only lost to quality teams.

Any of Baylor, WVU, and Texas would be by far our best 3 wins of the year. Hope we can snag one of them (2 would be p. cool)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: 420seriouscat69 on November 01, 2021, 12:23:34 PM
Nevada is worth a crap.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 01, 2021, 12:24:44 PM
Ranking:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/U1cRG.png)

Offense:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/0d1gv.png)

Defense:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/uXb5H.png)

Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 01, 2021, 12:28:11 PM
Week 10 pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/1LME0.png)
I bet we beat KU by more than two scores.  Or rather maybe I really hope we do?  Surely we will.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on November 01, 2021, 12:35:09 PM
@Chingon is it possible to apply these metrics to the previous winners of the CFB to see how they stack up to Georgia?
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Shooter Jones on November 01, 2021, 12:35:43 PM
Nevada is worth a crap.

Hey now, I'm just going off ChERNOBYL rankings. They're our 4th best win at 74
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 01, 2021, 01:10:25 PM
Nevada is worth a crap.

Hey now, I'm just going off ChERNOBYL rankings. They're our 4th best win at 74

I think beating anyone with Will Howard at QB has to count for something.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on November 01, 2021, 04:01:57 PM
I really hope we score more than 30 against that joke of a team. Hell, even Will Howard got us to 55 last year.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on November 02, 2021, 02:05:41 AM
I really hope we score more than 30 against that joke of a team. Hell, even Will Howard Philip Brooks got us to 55 last year.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 02, 2021, 09:42:13 AM
Projecting out the rest of the year (pre bowl season):

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/pGyCC.png)

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/9PiNj.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: ChiComCat on November 02, 2021, 09:43:28 AM
Is the OU/Baylor thing due to the Dr Pepper?
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 02, 2021, 09:46:42 AM
Is the OU/Baylor thing due to the Dr Pepper?
Yeah, it has a split.  Baylor wins regular season and OU the championship game.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on November 02, 2021, 09:48:33 AM
Chernobyl loves the crap out of the cats wow.   Also William Howard had to face the big 12’s best defense on the road, this poor bastard has had some tough luck haha.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: mocat on November 02, 2021, 10:00:10 AM
big game for oSu this weekend
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on November 02, 2021, 12:39:37 PM
Chernobyl loves the crap out of the cats wow.   Also William Howard had to face the big 12’s best defense on the road, this poor bastard has had some tough luck haha.

Not as much as it loves the Big 10. Christ alive, talk about grossly overrated.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: muqluk on November 02, 2021, 04:49:03 PM
Projecting out the rest of the year (pre bowl season):

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/pGyCC.png)

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/9PiNj.png)

Would very much take this outcome
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Shooter Jones on November 02, 2021, 05:18:44 PM
In what world would anyone have Notre Dame 6 w/ Cincy 7.

Computers, man.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 08, 2021, 10:54:27 AM
Week 10:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/zIXGB.png)
I don't see Cinci having the juice to move up much more in my rating system.

Poor Nebraska.  Just the unluckiest team I've seen in a while (but is it bad luck or the fact that they make catastrophic mistakes during critical times?)
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/NMyTI.png)

On the flip side, Oklahoma (and Oklahoma State) are both getting better results than the offense and defense numbers would suggest:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/7I9Bu.png)




(https://i.stack.imgur.com/lsUZV.png)
Cats are on the cusp of the Top 25.  A win against WVU might be the difference between a successful and failed season.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 08, 2021, 10:57:59 AM
Week 11 pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/FUxC7.png)
A nail-biter for the Cats at home, but I suspect we pull away by more.  Will Baylor hand OU it's first loss of the season this week?

(There's something funked up with Toledo betting listed twice, but I didn't care enough to fix it).
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 08, 2021, 11:19:17 AM
Projecting out the rest of the year (with Week 10 updates):
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/nUdOk.png)

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/pMTnH.png)
With the update, it has the Cats now losing to Baylor (barely --- 22-21).
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on November 08, 2021, 11:51:33 AM
8-4 would be really solid, 9-3 would be Herculean.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: cfbandyman on November 08, 2021, 12:20:28 PM
Cats are on the cusp of the Top 25.  A win against WVU might be the difference between a successful and failed season.

I think that's a fairly fair statement. At least in my mind if we win vs WV and then lose vs Baylor and Texas I'm not going to really be upset, and feel like while it was a season of some missed opportunities we beat teams we should beat, lost against those who were better, got lucky in some spots, and unlucky in others.

I'd still like to think we can pull off 8-4 somehow, I don't think Baylor nor Texas are unwinnable and especially being at home v Baylor and Texas looking like they are doing their normal collapse it could be in play to steal one of those games.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: cfbandyman on November 08, 2021, 12:22:15 PM
8-4 would be really solid, 9-3 would be Herculean.

9-3 feels like it right now but i would be tap dancingly happy if we did it. Like, we can make another Texas State Champs shirt again if we pull it off, but I'd give it like a 10% chance of happening
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on November 08, 2021, 12:35:35 PM
8-4 would be really solid, 9-3 would be Herculean.

9-3 feels like it right now but i would be tap dancingly happy if we did it. Like, we can make another Texas State Champs shirt again if we pull it off, but I'd give it like a 10% chance of happening

Yes, 9-3 is doable, but will be a fight to get to. However, all 3 teams left on the schedule are very beatable if we bring our A game.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: nicname on November 08, 2021, 12:51:49 PM
8-4 would be really solid, 9-3 would be Herculean.

9-3 feels like it right now but i would be tap dancingly happy if we did it. Like, we can make another Texas State Champs shirt again if we pull it off, but I'd give it like a 10% chance of happening

Yes, 9-3 is doable, but will be a fight to get to. However, all 3 teams left on the schedule are very beatable if we bring our A game.

Texas once seemed like an insurmountable task. If they keep losing they'll likely have given up on Sark and each other by our game. Could be the easiest game left on the schedule now.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: michigancat on November 08, 2021, 01:04:38 PM
8-4 would be really solid, 9-3 would be Herculean.

9-3 feels like it right now but i would be tap dancingly happy if we did it. Like, we can make another Texas State Champs shirt again if we pull it off, but I'd give it like a 10% chance of happening

Yes, 9-3 is doable, but will be a fight to get to. However, all 3 teams left on the schedule are very beatable if we bring our A game.

Texas once seemed like an insurmountable task. If they keep losing they'll likely have given up on Sark and each other by our game. Could be the easiest game left on the schedule now.

wishful thinking, it will be most difficult game by far. a "given up" team still has Bijan Robinson who can just absolutely destroy us
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: nicname on November 08, 2021, 01:13:26 PM
8-4 would be really solid, 9-3 would be Herculean.

9-3 feels like it right now but i would be tap dancingly happy if we did it. Like, we can make another Texas State Champs shirt again if we pull it off, but I'd give it like a 10% chance of happening

Yes, 9-3 is doable, but will be a fight to get to. However, all 3 teams left on the schedule are very beatable if we bring our A game.

Texas once seemed like an insurmountable task. If they keep losing they'll likely have given up on Sark and each other by our game. Could be the easiest game left on the schedule now.

wishful thinking, it will be most difficult game by far. a "given up" team still has Bijan Robinson who can just absolutely destroy us

Woof. Just checked their schedule. They faced basically the same murderers row we did, except they threw @Baylor into the mix. They'll get right vs KU and WVU just in time for senior day vs our Cats!! hooray!!
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 08, 2021, 01:17:00 PM
Baylor is better than Texas. They aren't a lot better, but they are clearly the better team.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on November 08, 2021, 02:15:02 PM
8-4 would be really solid, 9-3 would be Herculean.

9-3 feels like it right now but i would be tap dancingly happy if we did it. Like, we can make another Texas State Champs shirt again if we pull it off, but I'd give it like a 10% chance of happening

Yes, 9-3 is doable, but will be a fight to get to. However, all 3 teams left on the schedule are very beatable if we bring our A game.

Texas once seemed like an insurmountable task. If they keep losing they'll likely have given up on Sark and each other by our game. Could be the easiest game left on the schedule now.

I disagree. Texas is the guy who just got fired from his job, and the cats will be the dog he comes home and kicks.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 09, 2021, 09:55:33 AM
Maybe we will be the dog that comes up to him and pees on him while he's sitting on the curb crying.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on November 09, 2021, 10:44:28 AM
Maybe we will be the dog that comes up to him and pees on him while he's sitting on the curb crying.

 :lol:


But seriously, senior day in Austin... it'll all depend on whether the Texas team holds together or not. I don't know if we have the defense necessary to stop Bijan Robinson.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 15, 2021, 11:09:26 AM
Week 11:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/s7xx3.png)

We're BACK BABY!
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/dzozy.png)

A win against Baylor this weekend would be huge.


Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: nicname on November 15, 2021, 11:25:37 AM
 :emawkid:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 15, 2021, 11:27:38 AM
Nebraska at 24...
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 15, 2021, 11:37:33 AM
Nebraska at 24...
Catastrophically unlucky (or perhaps undisciplined and sloppy).  Stats-wise they should have at least twice as many wins.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: meow meow on November 15, 2021, 11:46:33 AM
having nebraska in the top 25 is a glaring black eye for chernobyl that you just hate to see.  i was starting to believe in this too so pretty sad rn  :cry:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 15, 2021, 11:51:47 AM
Imagine 2012 KSU, but every mental decision was wrong and every bounce went the wrong way.  That's this year's Nub team.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 15, 2021, 11:57:59 AM
Imagine 2012 KSU, but every mental decision was wrong and every bounce went the wrong way.  That's this year's Nub team.

2012 KSU could have spotted every team they played 20 points and been 5-5 at this point in the season.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: meow meow on November 15, 2021, 12:02:30 PM
you are what your record says you are

chernobyl:  lmao, luck
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on November 15, 2021, 12:35:16 PM
Losing to ISU still pisses me off but beating Baylor would certainly soothe the pain.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on November 15, 2021, 01:17:51 PM
Losing to ISU still pisses me off but beating Baylor would certainly soothe the pain.

This is very much where I am right now. I thought ISU would be much better than they are, and now, that loss isn't looking so good. However, if we win out, I'll be alright with a 9 win regular season.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 15, 2021, 01:19:27 PM
Week 12 pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/SDsIl.png)
:excited: but also :ohno:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 15, 2021, 02:04:05 PM
Projections (updated):
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/8s4oz.png)

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/LcChc.png)
ChERNOBYL has us losing a squeaker at Texas (27-28), but it also doesn't know about Bijan's status....
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on November 15, 2021, 02:21:23 PM
OSU’s defense is barely outside top 5 nationally right according to this? Man they put together a really nice unit, didn’t see that coming.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 15, 2021, 02:23:23 PM
Now Nebraska is 19...
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on November 15, 2021, 10:40:34 PM
Imagine 2012 KSU, but every mental decision was wrong and every bounce went the wrong way.  That's this year's Nub team.

(https://i1.sndcdn.com/artworks-000254163806-15q9xn-t500x500.jpg)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 22, 2021, 10:51:27 AM
Week 12:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/mxgDL.png)
We're back out again baby!

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/vky10.png)
I know I said previously that beating WVU was a marker (for me at least) for a successful season --- but now I really think beating Texas is necessary.  I know we won't have Skylar so that sucks... but finishing out the year on losses never feels good (especially to a team that has looked as bad as Texas).

 
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 22, 2021, 10:59:53 AM
Week 13 pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/cT2g2.png)
:frown:

I don't know man --- I still think we find a way to win somehow.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: BIG APPLE CAT on November 22, 2021, 11:09:44 AM
if sky was healthy i think good chance texas just rolls over since their season is over and morale is in the dirt. but now that they know we are injured i could see them being like lol lets do this
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 22, 2021, 11:14:17 AM
Projections:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/XvE20.png)

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/me4Eb.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on November 22, 2021, 10:45:24 PM
I know I said previously that beating WVU was a marker (for me at least) for a successful season --- but now I really think beating Texas is necessary.  I know we won't have Skylar so that sucks... but finishing out the year on losses never feels good (especially to a team that has looked as bad as Texas).

Not shy about moving those goalposts, huh?
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 23, 2021, 07:38:53 AM


I know I said previously that beating WVU was a marker (for me at least) for a successful season --- but now I really think beating Texas is necessary.  I know we won't have Skylar so that sucks... but finishing out the year on losses never feels good (especially to a team that has looked as bad as Texas).

Not shy about moving those goalposts, huh?
Oh no I've been exposed!
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Rage Against the McKee on November 23, 2021, 11:40:41 AM
Losing to Texas would be incredibly disappointing. Kansas is better than they are right now.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on November 23, 2021, 11:44:11 AM
Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily "moving goalposts" to now say that we need to beat Texas. They've completely fallen apart and we've looked like a better team then them all year.

However, if Sky doesn't take the field, then automatically spot Texas 14 points.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: wetwillie on November 23, 2021, 01:57:20 PM
Yeah, I don't think it's necessarily "moving goalposts" to now say that we need to beat Texas. They've completely fallen apart and we've looked like a better team then them all year.

However, if Sky doesn't take the field, then automatically spot Texas 14 points.

They don’t have their QB either, it’s going to be a slap and tickle fight in Austin
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: michigancat on November 23, 2021, 03:06:08 PM
Vegas has Texas favored
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on November 23, 2021, 05:53:36 PM
Don't get me wrong, we absolutely need to beat Texas but I think if you are constantly changing the game that you're using to extract something larger about the season, you're really just looking for a let down that means something more than a one game lots. *Okay you proved it here, but what about here." Win or lose this is a middle class Big 12 program with lots of room to improve in all aspects of the program.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: cfbandyman on November 23, 2021, 09:47:40 PM
Win, I'll be happy, lose, I'll be a little disappointed.

Regardless a decent bounce back from last year, though a lot of question marks for next year. At least we didn't absolutely crap the bed like Texas or fall super shot of expectations like ISU.

Total side note, I hope OSU waxes OU, but OU somehow always wins that game, so who knows.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: MakeItRain on November 23, 2021, 09:55:11 PM
Yeah, Saturday is a real "if not now, when" moment for OSU. They don't have many chances left and this is probably the last chance with a championship game appearance and possible CFP on the line
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: Sandstone Outcropping on November 24, 2021, 08:55:40 AM
Win, I'll be happy, lose, I'll be a little disappointed.

Regardless a decent bounce back from last year, though a lot of question marks for next year. At least we didn't absolutely crap the bed like Texas or fall super shot of expectations like ISU.

Total side note, I hope OSU waxes OU, but OU somehow always wins that game, so who knows.
I hope the game on Friday turns into a weird and delightful romp for the Cats. Something like 2010.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: PurpleOil on November 24, 2021, 10:59:23 AM
Win, I'll be happy, lose, I'll be a little disappointed.

Regardless a decent bounce back from last year, though a lot of question marks for next year. At least we didn't absolutely crap the bed like Texas or fall super shot of expectations like ISU.

Total side note, I hope OSU waxes OU, but OU somehow always wins that game, so who knows.
I hope the game on Friday turns into a weird and delightful romp for the Cats. Something like 2010.

That would make my Thanksgiving.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 29, 2021, 02:40:46 PM
Week 13 (end of regular season):
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/zi1qf.png)

Big 12:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/b5VGo.png)

The cats end up where they likely deserved, in the middle.  We didn't beat any teams ahead of us, but unfortunately lost to a Texas team behind us.   Who would have guessed that the best win of the year would have been against West Virginia?

Various ranks
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/xm7bf.png)

Offense:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/WIpfp.png)

Defense:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/DfLbI.png)



Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 29, 2021, 02:42:03 PM
Champ Week Pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/v5n0h.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on November 29, 2021, 02:52:44 PM
Projected:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/jnUXJ.png)

(https://i.stack.imgur.com/bVrEf.png)
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on December 06, 2021, 10:20:08 AM
Final Standings:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/tpRqX.png)

Big 12:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/82Td5.png)

Mini preview of Texas Bowl:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/tNjWz.png)
On paper, these are two evenly matched teams.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on December 07, 2021, 02:42:01 PM
Bowl Pix:
(https://i.stack.imgur.com/Hdu8f.png)
 :ksu: :ksu: :ksu: :ksu:
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: kim carnes on December 07, 2021, 02:53:16 PM
I have some constructive criticism, this thing puts too much weight in who a team loses to.
Title: Re: ChERNOBYL
Post by: CHONGS on December 07, 2021, 03:21:13 PM
I have some constructive criticism, this thing puts too much weight in who a team loses to.
Yeah I know.  I've vacillated many times on that.  "Good losses vs bad losses" is concept I don't really like.  I want focus on earning wins. Next year I'll probably change it up.