Author Topic: ChERNOBYL  (Read 3010 times)

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Online wiley

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #25 on: September 27, 2021, 02:19:25 PM »
Texas Tech is without Tyler Shoughfor a bit.  I don't know if your predictor takes that into account.
it's easy to be emaw when EMAW is at your doorstep - FFF

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #26 on: September 27, 2021, 02:20:13 PM »
ChERNOBYL predicts the KU game will be TWICE as fun as this last game  :excited:
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

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Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #27 on: September 27, 2021, 02:30:01 PM »
Texas Tech is without Tyler Shoughfor a bit.  I don't know if your predictor takes that into account.
It doesn't. It only uses the adjusted efficiency stats (offense, defense, possessions) from ChERNOBYL.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2021, 12:31:59 PM »
Well my data source made some more updates, so here is a revised prediction set:


and a Big 12 ranking:

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #29 on: October 04, 2021, 10:43:26 AM »
Week 5:


Big 12:


Cat actually move up a bit despite falling to second to last in the Big 12.  Overall the conference looks pretty solid (outside of KU of course), with a bunch of teams clustered between 29 and 41.

Oklahoma State keeps on winning despite having only a 47% predicted win percentage (which has them as the "luckiest" team in all of CFB --- closely behind is Oklahoma).

I thought it might be fun to track the Nu Big 12:

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #30 on: October 04, 2021, 01:05:10 PM »
Chernobyl hates the crap out of BYU
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #31 on: October 04, 2021, 01:22:16 PM »
Chernobyl hates the crap out of BYU

As it should.

Online MakeItRain

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #32 on: October 04, 2021, 04:41:10 PM »
Week 5 is really late in the year for these ratings to be as volatile as they are. Some of these are completely nonsensical starting with Rutgers. I didn't even notice they were 10th last week. A 13 place drop is crazy, but they're still way over valued.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #33 on: October 05, 2021, 07:52:12 AM »
Volatility is a feature not a bug for this system. Teams like Rutgers et al will fall off if they keep losing, but they have good numbers (if we assume my feed is not rough ridin' stuff up still --- such I haven't found any obvious errors).

Online wiley

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #34 on: October 05, 2021, 03:55:53 PM »


is a feature not a bug.

How to say you're a developer without saying "I'm a developer"
it's easy to be emaw when EMAW is at your doorstep - FFF

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #35 on: October 05, 2021, 04:11:49 PM »


is a feature not a bug.

How to say you're a developer without saying "I'm a developer"

 :love: :love: :love:
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Online mocat

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #36 on: October 06, 2021, 09:15:12 AM »
Week 5 is really late in the year for these ratings to be as volatile as they are. Some of these are completely nonsensical starting with Rutgers. I didn't even notice they were 10th last week. A 13 place drop is crazy, but they're still way over valued.

it's what happens when the data is purely based on this year. if you don't include priors, things will be volatile for a while

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #37 on: October 07, 2021, 09:57:52 AM »
Picks for Week 6:

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #38 on: October 07, 2021, 11:00:49 AM »
UT winning the RRR by more than a TD! Bold and daring predicto.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline BIG APPLE CAT

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #39 on: October 07, 2021, 12:38:18 PM »
my favorite thing about ChERNOBYL is the volatility. It has correctly picked some upsets, and has also picked some upsets that did not end up being even close. What i'm saying is, take all the upset picks, and bet all of them. probably around 1/2 will lose but the other 1/2 will more than cover the losses.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #40 on: October 11, 2021, 10:03:00 AM »
Week 6:

Big year so far for the Big Ten.





Offline PurpleOil

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #41 on: October 11, 2021, 10:08:51 AM »
my favorite thing about ChERNOBYL is the volatility. It has correctly picked some upsets, and has also picked some upsets that did not end up being even close. What i'm saying is, take all the upset picks, and bet all of them. probably around 1/2 will lose but the other 1/2 will more than cover the losses.

I too like the volatility. It helps keep things interesting in my opinion.

Online MakeItRain

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #42 on: October 11, 2021, 10:10:06 AM »
Big 10 East!

Offline meow meow

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #43 on: October 11, 2021, 10:14:18 AM »
Nebraska higher than Okie State is interesting

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #44 on: October 11, 2021, 10:15:11 AM »
I swear to god if Chernobyl picks Iowa state to win on Saturday I’m going to burn this place to the ground
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #45 on: October 11, 2021, 10:18:38 AM »
Picks:

:frown: but that's without the computers knowing that Skylar is QB again...

(sorry @wetwillie)

Offline wetwillie

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #46 on: October 11, 2021, 10:47:24 AM »
Oh if it’s a flawed model without Skylar I’m Gucci.  He’s good for more than 2 points.
When the bullets are flying, that's when I'm at my best

Offline PurpleOil

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #47 on: October 11, 2021, 12:09:15 PM »
If we hold Iowa State to 19 points, then I like our chances

Offline Rage Against the McKee

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #48 on: October 11, 2021, 01:05:18 PM »
I think we blow them out.

Offline Chingon

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Re: ChERNOBYL
« Reply #49 on: October 14, 2021, 03:19:20 PM »