2020 General Election Thread

[steve dave]

Biden is going to win PA by like 3%


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[steve dave]

Lmao, this is the single state the late votes WILL go for Trump

https://twitter.com/kyunglahcnn/status/1324188580642607110


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[catastrophe]

Need a legal beagle to vet this big brain strat

https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1324147954710650881

Well not knowing anything about the law I can tell you what she’s saying don’t make no got damn sense.

[waks]

So, verdict on whether or not to be worried about Arizona?

[wiley]

So, verdict on whether or not to be worried about Arizona?

I mean if they seige the facility and burn it to the ground Biden wins.

But from my small amount of research Trump would have to win 59-41(%) of the remaining votes and alot of them come from Democrat leaning counties.

But until it's counted, hard to tell, but i assume it'll be close.

I think another update is coming in the next 30 mins.

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[Trim]

https://twitter.com/KimPowellTV/status/1324185235743932419

[Gooch]

Instead of Brooks Brothers this time its jorts and crocs.

[kim carnes]

NO! YOUR BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA IS WRONG, NOT MY BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA

i don't believe i've offered an interpretation (other than a critique of yours).

are you asking me to believe that if bernie sanders had won the nomination and defeated trump with the highest turnout in a century you would look at that result and say "well eff, i really thought voters would turn out to support a clear-voiced candidate offering bold progressive solutions.  guess i was wrong."

I mean you have offered an opinion on it, you've argued against every point I've made.

I actually have never said a word about Bernie, I'm not willing to say with any conviction that he would have beaten trump. I'm pretty sure he could have, I think almost anybody could have but I'm not certain.

Anyway bringing up Bernie here is precisely my point. Democrats need to stop thinking that if we don't get someone who is an extension of Obama/Bush/Clinton then the alternative has to be Bernie Sanders. There is a wide gulf between do nothing and doing the most. Like I said in the President Biden thread, I'll hold out hope that he'll try to do something other than keeping the line moving, but his work will need to start on capitol hill.

Dude you aren’t even a democrat and you’re here losing your mind that the entire democratic party isn’t allowing itself to be co-opted by a small percentage of people like yourself. 

[MakeItRain]

NO! YOUR BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA IS WRONG, NOT MY BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA

i don't believe i've offered an interpretation (other than a critique of yours).

are you asking me to believe that if bernie sanders had won the nomination and defeated trump with the highest turnout in a century you would look at that result and say "well eff, i really thought voters would turn out to support a clear-voiced candidate offering bold progressive solutions.  guess i was wrong."

I mean you have offered an opinion on it, you've argued against every point I've made.

I actually have never said a word about Bernie, I'm not willing to say with any conviction that he would have beaten trump. I'm pretty sure he could have, I think almost anybody could have but I'm not certain.

Anyway bringing up Bernie here is precisely my point. Democrats need to stop thinking that if we don't get someone who is an extension of Obama/Bush/Clinton then the alternative has to be Bernie Sanders. There is a wide gulf between do nothing and doing the most. Like I said in the President Biden thread, I'll hold out hope that he'll try to do something other than keeping the line moving, but his work will need to start on capitol hill.

Dude you aren’t even a democrat and you’re here losing your mind that the entire democratic party isn’t allowing itself to be co-opted by a small percentage of people like yourself.

You don't know how to rough ridin' read, stop quoting me, dude.

[MakeItRain]

Need a legal beagle to vet this big brain strat

https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1324147954710650881

Well not knowing anything about the law I can tell you what she’s saying don’t make no got damn sense.

FWIW, Pennsylvania are counting these votes that arrive on the 4th-6th, but they are keeping them split out, just in case they lose a legal challenge.

[MakeItRain]

Yeah, being the party of the white moderate is definitely the path the dems should keep strolling down.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/04/opinion/election-2020-exit-polls.html#click=https://t.co/zxEICoIszb

A larger percentage of every racial minority voted for Trump this year than in 2016. Among Blacks and Hispanics, this percentage grew among both men and women, although men were more likely to vote for Trump than women.

The fascinating story and movement are in the Black vote. Black people vote overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates. Black women vote more reliably Democratic than Black men — only 3 or 4 percent of Black women voted for the Republican candidate in 2008, 2012 and 2016. However, Donald Trump doubled that number this year, winning 8 percent of Black women’s votes.

Black men on the other hand have been inching away from the Democrats in recent elections, and continued that drift in this election. In 2008, 5 percent of Black men voted for John McCain; in 2012, 11 percent voted for Mitt Romney; in 2016, 13 percent voted for Trump; and, this year 18 percent voted for Trump.

These men were specifically targeted by the Trump campaign, and that targeting may well have worked. Democrats are going to have to pour some energy into specifics listening to and understanding these Black men. They are still the least likely group of men to vote Republican, but this trend away from Democrats is undeniable at this point.

Who cares about all that when there's so many kim carnes' out there.

Not only did a majority of white men vote for Trump, so did a majority of white women. In 2016, exit polls also showed that a majority of white women had done so, but later an analysis of validated voters by the Pew Research Center found that a plurality of white women voted for Trump, not a majority.

In any case, white women vote for Trump at higher rates than all other women, despite the fact that Trump has spent his first term, indeed his whole life, denigrating women.

This one pushed me back on my heels: the percentage of L.G.B.T. people voting for Trump doubled from 2016, moving from 14 percent to 28 percent. In Georgia the number was 33 percent.

Keep shrinking that base, I'm sure The Lincoln Project will always be there to bail the dems out.

[WildcatNkilt]

AZ going to be tight!  Trump has a great chance of getting this state.

[MakeItRain]

Well he can have it because he's definitely losing Georgia.

[michigancat]

Why did Biden do so poorly with blacks compared to past elections? The narrative during the primaries was centered on how well he did with them. Did he just give up on them after the primaries?

[Katpappy]

Dead man walking. 

[WildcatNkilt]

Why did Biden do so poorly with blacks compared to past elections? The narrative during the primaries was centered on how well he did with them. Did he just give up on them after the primaries?

Didn’t Biden put a lot of black dudes in jail for drug crimes?

[michigancat]

Why did Biden do so poorly with blacks compared to past elections? The narrative during the primaries was centered on how well he did with them. Did he just give up on them after the primaries?

Didn’t Biden put a lot of black dudes in jail for drug crimes?

Yes, but it didn't seem to hurt him in the primaries at all

[puniraptor]

Thought experiment for algo/map nerds:

What would this election look like if every state followed Nebraska rules?

[cfbandyman]

Thought experiment for algo/map nerds:

What would this election look like if every state followed Nebraska rules?

This is probably easier to calculate than you think (if you make the assumption each representative won by each party equals the prez vote in a district as well, which is fairly true, just not always):

House of Reps Seats won by a party + 2*States won by that party.

So at last count I see for examples dems won 208 seats in the house (still not done there) and 22 states + DC

Meaning 208 + 2*23 = .... 254. Right more or less where we are

[cfbandyman]

Biggest caveat being in that case, (most) likely Biden wins no matter what in the sense that they are expected to hold the house, and would only need to win 16 seats for that. They currently hold 232 (though looks like they might lose a few) but winning 20 more doesn't seem all that far off to easily win it.

Pf course, if Biden wins any state overall (NV, GA, AZ, NC, etc) that shrinks it by 2 each time.

I'm sure it changes it some, and it definitely would made district races much more interesting as hardly any state is lockstep one or the other, and you'd at least feel like you got the power over a national election in more local ways.

[sonofdaxjones]

Straight up LOL’ing at BidenVoter having the vapors over some protesters. 

[sonofdaxjones]

Why did Biden do so poorly with blacks compared to past elections? The narrative during the primaries was centered on how well he did with them. Did he just give up on them after the primaries?

Didn’t Biden put a lot of black dudes in jail for drug crimes?

Joe Biden is the poster boy for incarceration nation (and by proxy deportation nation).   Dems have now put two old white mega racists on the presidential ballot in 4 years. Joe was in lockstep with Hillary “dog whistle” Clinton aka Mrs. We Will Bring Them to Heel.

[Phil Titola]

Straight up LOL’ing at BidenVoter having the vapors over some protesters.

Everybody is literally laughing at them and how idiotic their protest is.

[sonofdaxjones]

Straight up LOL’ing at BidenVoter having the vapors over some protesters.

Everybody is literally laughing at them and how idiotic their protest is.

That wasn’t the point, dummy.  With that said,  it’s really no different then making fun of white upper middle class kids hiding behind their mommies on the mean streets of Portland.

[Phil Titola]

Straight up LOL’ing at BidenVoter having the vapors over some protesters.

Everybody is literally laughing at them and how idiotic their protest is.

That wasn’t the point, dummy.  With that said,  it’s really no different then making fun of white upper middle class kids hiding behind their mommies on the mean streets of Portland.

STOP COUNTING...wait KEEP COUNTING. 

It's not amazing at all that Trump voters that would actually go out to where votes are being counted don't understand voting at all.  Can't wait to see them banished back to the back halls of the internet without their leader to give them the oxygen.