2020 General Election Thread

[steve dave]

He’s also going to end up getting PA and about a 5m vote advantage overall

https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1324130040414720001


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[chum1]

https://twitter.com/jpeebles/status/1324128893687767042

[MakeItRain]

You dumb moderate dems will keep focusing on trump instead of the fact that republicans are hugely reliably conservative. You incrementalists are far more harmful than conservatives.

I think this is the type of zeal that could one day lead to a strong progressive reliable voting coalition that pulls out Ws.

I know I'm losing my crap here but I'm frustrated because we keep doing the same crap over and over again and the democrats keep making excuses instead of fixing their party. Trump made gains with black men and hispanics because they are being completely left behind by democrats. Now I know trump and the republicans aren't actually interested in helping anyone out, the rhetoric is just for votes, but at this point a lot of people are in the place where they are saying, well, at least he's talking to us. Black men are leaving because democrats aren't giving them a reason to stay. Once republicans figure out the patriarchy thing, which I do think there is some movement there, dems will start to lose black women too. We've been warned about this for several cycles, this isn't new crap.

What frustrates me the most is that this isn't only a thing for black men and latin x, there is a large segment of poor and middle class white people out there voting trump who can be had if we gave people health care and a higher minimum wage. The democrats are rough ridin' cowards being led by people who are primarily interested in holding on to some modicum of the status quo. People were still voting yesterday when Nancy announced she's going to make deals with the pubs. I'm frustrated and tired of the dumb bullshit.

[kim carnes]

You dumb moderate dems will keep focusing on trump instead of the fact that republicans are hugely reliably conservative. You incrementalists are far more harmful than conservatives.

I think this is the type of zeal that could one day lead to a strong progressive reliable voting coalition that pulls out Ws.

I know I'm losing my crap here but I'm frustrated because we keep doing the same crap over and over again and the democrats keep making excuses instead of fixing their party. Trump made gains with black men and hispanics because they are being completely left behind by democrats. Now I know trump and the republicans aren't actually interested in helping anyone out, the rhetoric is just for votes, but at this point a lot of people are in the place where they are saying, well, at least he's talking to us. Black men are leaving because democrats aren't giving them a reason to stay. Once republicans figure out the patriarchy thing, which I do think there is some movement there, dems will start to lose black women too. We've been warned about this for several cycles, this isn't new crap.

What frustrates me the most is that this isn't only a thing for black men and latin x, there is a large segment of poor and middle class white people out there voting trump who can be had if we gave people health care and a higher minimum wage. The democrats are rough ridin' cowards being led by people who are primarily interested in holding on to some modicum of the status quo. People were still voting yesterday when Nancy announced she's going to make deals with the pubs. I'm frustrated and tired of the dumb bullshit.

Unfortunately you’re a little out of touch with reality, but fight on.

[steve dave]

Also a chance he ends with 306 which is more than Trumps 304 over Clinton and that is going to ENRAGE trump.


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[sys]

It seems any Dem candidate would garner huge numbers of anti-Trump voters, but someone who isn't speaking primarily to moderate republicans could garner more.

only if you make the (rather odd) assumptions that 1) few anti-trump conservatives and moderates would change their vote or decline to vote for a candidate more at odds with them ideologically, and 2) many progressive voters are not also anti-trump.


fundamentally, i think the diagnosis that the race was closer than expected because a candidate that garnered the most votes in the country's history in an election with the highest turnout % in over a century because that candidate didn't turn out voters is probably off the mark.

[sys]

I mean I literally addressed that with the rest of that post. Attempting to win national and statewide elections without motivating and exciting parts of your base is a fools errand

yeah, i understand that you believed this prior to the election and would like to apply that belief to the current situation, but unfortunately the facts of the most recent election are at odds with this hypothesis.

[steve dave]

Trump team just called GA for Biden too. This election result is going to be reasonably close to what the forecast maps called for

https://twitter.com/courtneydbryant/status/1324139665285328899


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[michigancat]

It seems any Dem candidate would garner huge numbers of anti-Trump voters, but someone who isn't speaking primarily to moderate republicans could garner more.

only if you make the (rather odd) assumptions that 1) few anti-trump conservatives and moderates would change their vote or decline to vote for a candidate more at odds with them ideologically, and 2) many progressive voters are not also anti-trump.


fundamentally, i think the diagnosis that the race was closer than expected because a candidate that garnered the most votes in the country's history in an election with the highest turnout % in over a century because that candidate didn't turn out voters is probably off the mark.

yeah I hear ya, although I think the dem candidate could have been slightly more progressive and lost very few never-trump moderates

[sonofdaxjones]

Just never could have imagined these kinds of problems in multi-generation LibBot strongholds.

All that uptick in minority voting for Trump really must have spooked the, "the most extensive and inclusive voter fraud organization in the history of American politics."  (Direct Quote)

[chum1]

Trump team just called GA for Biden too. This election result is going to be reasonably close to what the forecast maps called for

https://twitter.com/courtneydbryant/status/1324139665285328899


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I like to imagine Trump seeing his lead dwindle on television and being like, "MAKE IT STOP! STOP THE COUNTING!!! DO SOMETHING!!!"

[cfbandyman]

Drumpf team just called GA for Biden too. This election result is going to be reasonably close to what the forecast maps called for

https://twitter.com/courtneydbryant/status/1324139665285328899


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I like to imagine Drumpf seeing his lead dwindle on television and being like, "MAKE IT STOP! STOP THE COUNTING!!! DO SOMETHING!!!"

Lol it is that 100%. Him losing his crap is like half this fun

[mocat]

Way more fun than when he wanted to stop counting covid cases

[cfbandyman]

Way more fun than when he wanted to stop counting covid cases

Goes without saying. In general, if Biden does indeed pull it off, which it looks like, his meltdown will be epic and I will be there for every minute of it.

[wiley]

So far i feel like his twitter has been a dud though.

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[kstater]

Also a chance he ends with 306 which is more than Trumps 304 over Clinton and that is going to ENRAGE trump.


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I need this to happen now.

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[catastrophe]

Oh yeah it would be an all time melt down and Dax would be HERE FOR IT.

[treysolid]

Looking again at the PA maps, Biden is likely to flip at least two of Bucks, Monroe and Lehigh counties, while finishing strong in Allegheny, Chester, Delaware, Montgomery, and Philadelpia. Biden carries the state by ~2%.

[treysolid]

Trump team just called GA for Biden too. This election result is going to be reasonably close to what the forecast maps called for

https://twitter.com/courtneydbryant/status/1324139665285328899


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Trump's lead is 40k and there are still ~168k ballots to be counted between Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, Richmond, Bibb, Muscogee, Dougherty, and Chatham counties. All those are blue with Joe getting ~69-70% of the vote. Conservatively, that points to Joe picking up an additional 64k votes.

So, I wouldn't be shocked to see GA turn blue.

[MakeItRain]

I mean I literally addressed that with the rest of that post. Attempting to win national and statewide elections without motivating and exciting parts of your base is a fools errand

yeah, i understand that you believed this prior to the election and would like to apply that belief to the current situation, but unfortunately the facts of the most recent election are at odds with this hypothesis.

NO! YOUR BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA IS WRONG, NOT MY BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA

[MakeItRain]

Trump team just called GA for Biden too. This election result is going to be reasonably close to what the forecast maps called for

https://twitter.com/courtneydbryant/status/1324139665285328899


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Trump's lead is 40k and there are still ~168k ballots to be counted between Fulton, DeKalb, Clayton, Richmond, Bibb, Muscogee, Dougherty, and Chatham counties. All those are blue with Joe getting ~69-70% of the vote. Conservatively, that points to Joe picking up an additional 64k votes.

So, I wouldn't be shocked to see GA turn blue.

Me and my buddy @ChiComCat have been telling all of you for the last 24 hours that Biden would win Georgia.

[star seed 7]

Need a legal beagle to vet this big brain strat

https://twitter.com/NikkiMcR/status/1324147954710650881

[sys]

NO! YOUR BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA IS WRONG, NOT MY BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA

i don't believe i've offered an interpretation (other than a critique of yours).

are you asking me to believe that if bernie sanders had won the nomination and defeated trump with the highest turnout in a century you would look at that result and say "well eff, i really thought voters would turn out to support a clear-voiced candidate offering bold progressive solutions.  guess i was wrong."

[MakeItRain]

NO! YOUR BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA IS WRONG, NOT MY BIASED INTERPRETATION OF THE DATA

i don't believe i've offered an interpretation (other than a critique of yours).

are you asking me to believe that if bernie sanders had won the nomination and defeated trump with the highest turnout in a century you would look at that result and say "well eff, i really thought voters would turn out to support a clear-voiced candidate offering bold progressive solutions.  guess i was wrong."

I mean you have offered an opinion on it, you've argued against every point I've made.

I actually have never said a word about Bernie, I'm not willing to say with any conviction that he would have beaten trump. I'm pretty sure he could have, I think almost anybody could have but I'm not certain.

Anyway bringing up Bernie here is precisely my point. Democrats need to stop thinking that if we don't get someone who is an extension of Obama/Bush/Clinton then the alternative has to be Bernie Sanders. There is a wide gulf between do nothing and doing the most. Like I said in the President Biden thread, I'll hold out hope that he'll try to do something other than keeping the line moving, but his work will need to start on capitol hill.

[sys]

prescient tweet

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1319972981804859394