Author Topic: 2020 General Election Thread  (Read 129051 times)

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Offline Trim

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Offline sys

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #876 on: September 27, 2020, 09:36:31 PM »
On Medicare 4 All Biden has been explicit about this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/biden-says-he-wouldd-veto-medicare-for-all-as-coronavirus-focuses-attention-on-health.html

The green new deal claim is more of a stretch but Biden wants to keep fracking and expands the time horizon for zero emissions by 20 years from the GND and eliminate a lot of the jobs programs and other elements to get the cost down. Make of that what you will.

if you open the link that you provide, you'll see that biden is not at all explicit about vetoing m4a.  in fact he completely dodges that question and instead responds exactly as you'd expect a candidate not campaigning on m4a in a primary against an opponent who is - by outlining the reasons why he doesn't support it and instead has a different plan.

biden's climate change plan is both very good and far more radical than anything that could conceivably pass the senate.  if they get a crippled version through with a quarter of what's in biden's plan it will be the most significant legislation of the 21st century thus far.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #877 on: September 27, 2020, 09:41:13 PM »
The problem of course is that any “big” policy agenda is going to have enormous opposition and so if the base case is that you want to build consensus first, you will basically not get much of anything done.

The ACA began with quite a few people including Obama wanting a public option, and that was basically impossible because the Obama admin decided it was very important to court Max Baucus and Chuck Grassley and take them seriously, instead of just telling their conference what was going to happen and nut cutting.

It is worth comparing what McConnell did. He threatened pulling Chuck Grassley’s seniority, his prime committee appointments, access to the Republican Senate funds all because he was NEGOTIATING with Dems. Not even that he was going to vote for the bill, just for inserting republican friendly amendments (THAT THE DEMS MOSTLY KEPT IN ANYWAYS EVEN THOUGH THEY GOT ZERO REPUBLICAN VOTES)

So to review, McConell was going to torch any republican senators entire bloodline for talking to Dems, and Dems were actively reaching out to try and get 1-2 republican votes. In the end? Not even Susan Collins or Olympia Snow came on board because intense pressure from your own party is always more effective than goodies from the other side.

1.  obamacare was negotiated down to get 60 dem votes, not to get any 'pub votes.
2.  the reason the pub caucus votes together more than the dem caucus is because there are very few pub senators in blue states and not many more from purple states while there are quite a few dem senators from red and purple states.  in 2008 that was much more the case.  you can look back at that 60 senator majority and it is filled with senators from states that are now inconceivable.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #878 on: September 27, 2020, 09:49:46 PM »

This gets it backwards. Biden says he would veto a GND or Medicare 4 All so of course they don’t have 2/3rds majority.

They also aren’t going to suddenly turn Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi in to Mitch McConnel ramming through the Obamacare repeal in regards to these big new programs. Saying this is all Manchin’s fault or whatever and leftists are dumb is just an excuse. If they have 53 or 54 votes they could tell Manchin to eff off. The problem is none of the major figures want to do anything big even if they do have the votes! Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer are not going to whip votes for Medicare 4 All or really much of anything worth a crap.

All that is on offer for now and forever is “we’re not republicans.” It will probably be enough to hold off a very unpopular president and party but they will get crushed in the midterms.

m4a wouldn't get 40 votes.  the gnd is a non-binding resolution that the senate republicans brought to a vote because they thought they could trap dems into voting for it (and dems refused to).

you still need 60 votes in the senate, not 50 or 54 and i don't share your optimism that the dems are likely to get 53 or 54.  and if they do, manchin isn't the only red state dem that will be leary of voting against his constituents' policy preferences.

the idea that you just need leadership or the president to push senators harder and you can magically get them to vote with you is just so fundamentally wrong.  even the pubs, whose leadership you laud, got essentially nothing out of unified control of the federal government.  not a single thing they campaigned on or wanted in two years of control except a tax cut that will be reversed if the dems take the senate.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #879 on: September 27, 2020, 10:07:18 PM »
if they get a crippled version through with a quarter of what's in biden's plan it will be the most significant legislation of the 21st century thus far.

depending on your pov, p.r. statehood might be more significant legislation, i guess.  and it might have a chance.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #880 on: September 28, 2020, 07:43:37 AM »
On Medicare 4 All Biden has been explicit about this.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/10/biden-says-he-wouldd-veto-medicare-for-all-as-coronavirus-focuses-attention-on-health.html

The green new deal claim is more of a stretch but Biden wants to keep fracking and expands the time horizon for zero emissions by 20 years from the GND and eliminate a lot of the jobs programs and other elements to get the cost down. Make of that what you will.

if you open the link that you provide, you'll see that biden is not at all explicit about vetoing m4a.  in fact he completely dodges that question and instead responds exactly as you'd expect a candidate not campaigning on m4a in a primary against an opponent who is - by outlining the reasons why he doesn't support it and instead has a different plan.

biden's climate change plan is both very good and far more radical than anything that could conceivably pass the senate.  if they get a crippled version through with a quarter of what's in biden's plan it will be the most significant legislation of the 21st century thus far.

Come on man! That's just a load of malarkey! If you want me to sign Medicare 4 All with a big tax increase for the middle class you should've voted for the socialist, WHO I BEAT!

but seriously how much more clear can a politician get?

“Nancy Pelosi gets a version of it through the House of Representatives. It comes to your desk. Do you veto it?” MSNBC host Lawrence O’Donnell asked Biden during an interview Monday night.

I would veto anything that delays providing the security and the certainty of health care being available now,” Biden responded. “If they got that through in by some miracle or there’s an epiphany that occurred and some miracle occurred that said, ‘OK, it’s passed,’ then you got to look at the cost.”

Biden added: “I want to know, how did they find $35 trillion? What is that doing? Is it going to significantly raise taxes on the middle class, which it will? What’s going to happen?”



Offline Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #881 on: September 28, 2020, 07:57:57 AM »

This gets it backwards. Biden says he would veto a GND or Medicare 4 All so of course they don’t have 2/3rds majority.

They also aren’t going to suddenly turn Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi in to Mitch McConnel ramming through the Obamacare repeal in regards to these big new programs. Saying this is all Manchin’s fault or whatever and leftists are dumb is just an excuse. If they have 53 or 54 votes they could tell Manchin to eff off. The problem is none of the major figures want to do anything big even if they do have the votes! Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, and Chuck Schumer are not going to whip votes for Medicare 4 All or really much of anything worth a crap.

All that is on offer for now and forever is “we’re not republicans.” It will probably be enough to hold off a very unpopular president and party but they will get crushed in the midterms.

m4a wouldn't get 40 votes.  the gnd is a non-binding resolution that the senate republicans brought to a vote because they thought they could trap dems into voting for it (and dems refused to).

you still need 60 votes in the senate, not 50 or 54 and i don't share your optimism that the dems are likely to get 53 or 54.  and if they do, manchin isn't the only red state dem that will be leary of voting against his constituents' policy preferences.

the idea that you just need leadership or the president to push senators harder and you can magically get them to vote with you is just so fundamentally wrong.  even the pubs, whose leadership you laud, got essentially nothing out of unified control of the federal government.  not a single thing they campaigned on or wanted in two years of control except a tax cut that will be reversed if the dems take the senate.

It isn't going to happen because none of the leadership wants it so there is no reason to worry about it, but fine.

As to your point about "not being able to get anything done without 60 votes" The Republicans almost rammed through an insanely unpopular repeal of Obamacare in the face of huge opposition and protests with 52 votes and almost did it if not for John McCain basically deciding to vote no to piss off Trump.

So yes, GND and M4A are completely "unrealistic" because of the Dem leadership, and the average Senator's politics, and Biden. So, no it won't happen.

My question back, is how could the Republicans have been willing to expend that much political capital for their failed Obamacare repeal with no replacement and almost succeed if the Democrats couldn't, if they were similarly ideologically motivated do the same to pass a very popular M4A proposal?

Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #882 on: September 28, 2020, 08:06:09 AM »
MFA is where we will eventually be but man, it's a gigantic undertaking and a billion times more complex than ACA. it's going to take pretty universal acceptance before that is ever going to happen. having a slim advantage in dem votes is certainly not going to get it done, even if almost every dem was on board with doing it and right now very few are. the health insurance industry, the new federal replacement for the health insurance industry, the lobbyists to axe, the investor impact, the list can go on for a long time. it's kind of like guns, we are so far past where we should have drawn the line there is just no good way to go back. we're going to have to at some point, but it's going to need to be very baby steps.

Offline ChiComCat

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #883 on: September 28, 2020, 08:11:48 AM »
Man, the left must really think the American people are slow witted dumb fucks by naming their signature plans Medicare for all and the green new deal. 

Have you seen the Platinum Plan?

Offline kim carnes

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #884 on: September 28, 2020, 12:13:55 PM »
MFA is where we will eventually be but man, it's a gigantic undertaking and a billion times more complex than ACA. it's going to take pretty universal acceptance before that is ever going to happen. having a slim advantage in dem votes is certainly not going to get it done, even if almost every dem was on board with doing it and right now very few are. the health insurance industry, the new federal replacement for the health insurance industry, the lobbyists to axe, the investor impact, the list can go on for a long time. it's kind of like guns, we are so far past where we should have drawn the line there is just no good way to go back. we're going to have to at some point, but it's going to need to be very baby steps.

There are things that should be changed but that doesn’t mean we should nationalize our healthcare system.

Offline sys

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #885 on: September 28, 2020, 11:56:12 PM »
amazing that there are people paid to share their opinions on politics that don't get this.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310804319118200833
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #886 on: September 29, 2020, 08:56:14 AM »

Offline cfbandyman

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #887 on: September 29, 2020, 09:01:33 AM »
there's no way, but lmao if so

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1310932352965791745

538 has Ohio as a tossup as well. Not Iowa.

They have Ohio, NC, and Maine's 2nd as toss ups.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
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Offline chum1

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #888 on: September 29, 2020, 11:23:30 AM »
This is why some of us celebrated Biden's win in the Democrat candidate thread.

https://twitter.com/HotlineJosh/status/1310974258923950080

Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #889 on: September 29, 2020, 01:27:18 PM »

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #890 on: September 29, 2020, 04:02:59 PM »
amazing that there are people paid to share their opinions on politics that don't get this.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1310804319118200833

Exactly, very few people are enthusiastic about voting for a 78 year old for president, but we're sure as hell enthusiastic to vote or asses off.

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #891 on: September 29, 2020, 04:16:11 PM »
there's no way, but lmao if so

https://twitter.com/CookPolitical/status/1310932352965791745

538 has Ohio as a tossup as well. Not Iowa.

They have Ohio, NC, and Maine's 2nd as toss ups.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

Of course Iowa is a toss up, it's weird to think otherwise. Obama won in '08 by 9 percent, in '12 by 6. Michael Dukakis and Al Gore won Iowa. GWB only won his second term by 9000 votes. Three out of the four representatives (The three that have the largest cities) are democrats. The Senate race is a toss up, in which the dem has lead since she won the nomination. Any historical data, or current polling point to a toss up, trump's win was about Clinton, not him. The dem turnout was wayyy down and trump got barely more votes than Romney.

The Iowa electorate is much more Wisconsin and Minnesota, and much less Nebraska and Kansas.

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #892 on: September 29, 2020, 04:23:42 PM »
If Southern Illinois was a state, Trump would win. I've never seen so many Trump signs and cornfields.

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Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #893 on: September 30, 2020, 08:21:57 AM »
mrs. dave and I are dropping off our mail in votes today

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1310591993697964037

Offline bucket

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #894 on: September 30, 2020, 08:39:46 AM »
If Southern Illinois was a state, Trump would win. I've never seen so many Trump signs and cornfields.

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I-72?!  :excited:

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #895 on: September 30, 2020, 09:51:05 AM »
If Southern Illinois was a state, Trump would win. I've never seen so many Trump signs and cornfields.

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I-72?!  :excited:
Olney and surrounding areas that are just north of I64.

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Offline Kat Kid

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #896 on: September 30, 2020, 09:51:43 AM »
I am planning to vote Oct. 29th or 30th

Offline MakeItRain

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #897 on: September 30, 2020, 11:27:20 AM »
mrs. dave and I are dropping off our mail in votes today

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1310591993697964037

You and nate need to stop trying to make fetch happen

Offline chum1

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #898 on: September 30, 2020, 11:38:31 AM »
Pretty sure it's basically impossible both for NE-02 to be a close race and also have a close electoral count. The district too far left relative to other states for that to happen.

Offline steve dave

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Re: 2020 General Election Thread
« Reply #899 on: September 30, 2020, 12:31:33 PM »
I will personally be the deciding vote in this election. I hold that power.


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