CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[sonofdaxjones]

And maybe I was wrong about having adequate testing capacity

Whats "adequate" cRusty??

[MakeItRain]

So Iowa is starting high school sports June 1, with spectators June 15. I'd assume they will be the first in the nation running school activities. Of course there isn't school now nor have there been any decisions about school in the fall, but yay sports

[michigancat]

And maybe I was wrong about having adequate testing capacity

Whats "adequate" cRusty??

Enough for contact tracing to be effective. I've seen 5% and 3% positivity rate thrown around but I don't think you need to be that low if you're good at isolating contacts of confirmed positives.

[michigancat]

So Iowa is starting high school sports June 1, with spectators June 15. I'd assume they will be the first in the nation running school activities. Of course there isn't school now nor have there been any decisions about school in the fall, but yay sports

What high school sports are happening in Iowa in June? Are they trying to make up spring sports?

[MakeItRain]

So Iowa is starting high school sports June 1, with spectators June 15. I'd assume they will be the first in the nation running school activities. Of course there isn't school now nor have there been any decisions about school in the fall, but yay sports

What high school sports are happening in Iowa in June? Are they trying to make up spring sports?

Baseball and Softball are late spring/early summer sports.

[sys]

are we quibbling about rounding here?

1500/0.005 = 300k, katkid.

[sys]

https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/1263250031978651648

[Phil Titola]

unbelievable.

https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1263329713688215552

They've really mumped up about every step of the way.

This is easy.  Blame the state reporting.  It's a simple formula.  Blame someone else when things are effed up but when things start looking better, immediately take credit.  You can see this in action right now with signage behind Trump/Kelly in their meeting bragging regarding all the PPE delivered.  Remember when it was the state's job to go obtain that and the fact they didn't have that was the governors fault?

[Kat Kid]

are we quibbling about rounding here?

1500/0.005 = 300k, katkid.

Thanks, I heard Romer talk about this calculation but didn’t think much about how he did it.

[michigancat]

are we quibbling about rounding here?

1500/0.005 = 300k, katkid.

Thanks, I heard Romer talk about this calculation but didn’t think much about how he did it.

It was late and I had a couple cocktails and didn't feel like doing the math

[Kat Kid]

are we quibbling about rounding here?

1500/0.005 = 300k, katkid.

Thanks, I heard Romer talk about this calculation but didn’t think much about how he did it.

It was late and I had a couple cocktails and didn't feel like doing the math

me too

[michigancat]

unbelievable.

https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1263329713688215552

They've really mumped up about every step of the way.

This is easy.  Blame the state reporting.  It's a simple formula.  Blame someone else when things are effed up but when things start looking better, immediately take credit.  You can see this in action right now with signage behind Trump/Kelly in their meeting bragging regarding all the PPE delivered.  Remember when it was the state's job to go obtain that and the fact they didn't have that was the governors fault?

I think the actual CDC should have been competent enough to avoid this and the administration is too incompetent to care as long as we're still #1 in testing if you only count PCR tests.

[catastrophe]

If you’re not contact tracing or enforcing quarantine, does it actually matter? Who is being misled by combining the two and how?

[michigancat]

If you’re not contact tracing or enforcing quarantine, does it actually matter? Who is being misled by combining the two and how?

in terms of actually slowing the spread of the disease, probably not.

But it definitely makes states look more ready to reopen than they actually are by inflating test capacity and lowering positivity rate.

[sys]

If you’re not contact tracing or enforcing quarantine, does it actually matter? Who is being misled by combining the two and how?

a lot of people are using the % positive as a metric to intuit roughly how many new infections are occurring.  if you include antibody tests, that number will likely be lower (and certainly not directly comparable to earlier data that didn't include them).

people are also tracking how many tests are performed as a metric of testing capacity.  fairly obvious how that misleads.


bottom line, they're different tests that do different things and if you combine them then you don't have good data on either.

[catastrophe]

Well I mean it’s obvious why statisticians don’t like it. I was just asking whether it matters for some other reason.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Well I mean it’s obvious why statisticians don’t like it. I was just asking whether it matters for some other reason.

Members of the public use the stats to inform their decisions.

[8manpick]

Well I mean it’s obvious why statisticians don’t like it. I was just asking whether it matters for some other reason.

Members of the public use the stats to inform their decisions.

Not only that, but politicians are likely also using those stats to inform or justify their decisions, whether knowing that they aren't representative or not.

[8manpick]

I don't put much if any stock in this, but lol 
https://twitter.com/WISN12News/status/1262948715624574976?

[michigancat]

Well I mean it’s obvious why statisticians don’t like it. I was just asking whether it matters for some other reason.

Members of the public use the stats to inform their decisions.

you can see it happening in this thread w/ DQ saying we can't definitively say Texas's number of positive cases as rising because they're testing more and the positivity rate is dropping. When testing for antibodies would almost definitely get lower positivity rate than PCR tests.

[CHONGS]

https://www.wsfa.com/2020/05/20/montgomery-leaders-give-update-covid-/



Let's hope things improve quickly there.

[DaBigTrain]

I don't put much if any stock in this, but lol 
https://twitter.com/WISN12News/status/1262948715624574976?

Pfft to work as a preventative you just need to take a 2 week cycle.

[catastrophe]

Well I mean it’s obvious why statisticians don’t like it. I was just asking whether it matters for some other reason.

Members of the public use the stats to inform their decisions.

Not only that, but politicians are likely also using those stats to inform or justify their decisions, whether knowing that they aren't representative or not.

Whereas they can rely on the testing numbers if not combined with antibody tests? Do you think that would be good policy?

Most of the public only cares about how widespread infection is, in which case I don’t see a downside to combining.

[michigancat]

Most of the public only cares about how widespread infection is, in which case I don’t see a downside to combining.

PCR = how widespread infection is currently (active infections, people that can spread the disease)
Antibody = how widespread infection may have been over time (people that have been infected at some point, they can't necessarily spread it if positive)

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/15/834497497/antibody-tests-for-coronavirus-can-miss-the-mark

[michigancat]

https://www.wsfa.com/2020/05/20/montgomery-leaders-give-update-covid-/



Let's hope things improve quickly there.

yeah that seems bad. is there meat packing or something there driving the outbreak? @sonofdaxjones?