CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[michigancat]

here's another CDC source

NYC:



National:



https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

https://public.tableau.com/shared/DNQX8DCJD?:toolbar=n&:tabs=n&:display_count=n&:origin=viz_share_link&:embed=y

[sys]

It's also possible that all cause deaths take a long time to get reported.

it's this.

although if you look at the graph by age, i bet that dip in mortality among young people holds up.  the old people number will just go up more.

[sys]

Touch away at stuff!

https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/cdc-coronavirus-mainly-spreads-through-persontoperson-contact-and-does-not-spread-easily-on-contaminated-surfaces-153317029.html

Would like to see a more sciency confirmation of this, but yeah the data seems to really bolster this.

can't wait to touch the eff out of my face.

[Trim]

https://twitter.com/wadepthealth/status/1263204118212104194

[DQ12]

We're shooting for <1600 today.

1402.   

7 day avg down to 1304.  Down 23% compared to last week, and down 37% from the peak on 4/21.  Sorry, coronabros!  Wacky and I are whipping this thing's ass.

[DQ12]

It's also possible that all cause deaths take a long time to get reported.

it's this.

although if you look at the graph by age, i bet that dip in mortality among young people holds up.  the old people number will just go up more.

I like my other theories more though.

[michigancat]

We're shooting for <1600 today.

1402.   

7 day avg down to 1304.  Down 23% compared to last week, and down 37% from the peak on 4/21.  Sorry, coronabros!  Wacky and I are whipping this thing's ass.

why do you think it's falling like that?

[DQ12]

We're shooting for <1600 today.

1402.   

7 day avg down to 1304.  Down 23% compared to last week, and down 37% from the peak on 4/21.  Sorry, coronabros!  Wacky and I are whipping this thing's ass.

why do you think it's falling like that?

Hydroxycholoroquine and bleach.

Probably a combination of extra precautions (testing, distancing, masks), doctors wrapping their arms around optimal treatments, and maybe weather.  Why do you think it's falling like that?  BTW, the coronabros thing was a joke between us guys ITT who have built a level of rapport in thinking about the numbers and so forth. 

[Phil Titola]

Obviously two months of lockdowns help and we are still seeing the impacts of that. Better treatment protocols have to be helping too.

Given that, I'd like to see hospitalization number tends.

[michigancat]

Why do you think it's falling like that?

NY/NJ/CT/MI/LA no longer have overwhelmed hospital systems + the lockdowns and travel restrictions keep everything in a fairly steady state everywhere else. And I'm sure treatment is improved, but I don't think that's making a huge dent in deaths yet.

Obviously two months of lockdowns help and we are still seeing the impacts of that. Better treatment protocols have to be helping too.

Given that, I'd like to see hospitalization number tends.

I don't think the hospitalization data are very good in every state. But I think this is interesting:



https://public.tableau.com/views/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/0_HomeNY?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link

[sys]

brazil is gonna have the second worst case numbers in two days and the second worst death numbers in less that two weeks.  mexico is trending very poorly too.

[sys]

that's virginia, texas and georgia now that have admitted to mixing antibody tests into their their testing totals.

https://twitter.com/hshaban/status/1263299326362750977

[nicname]

that's virginia, texas and georgia now that have admitted to mixing antibody tests into their their testing totals.

https://twitter.com/hshaban/status/1263299326362750977

Have you seen anything looking into why states may have been doing this? Apologies if already mentioned. Aside from looking better/ saving face, I'd imagine states doing this if higher testing numbers were required from some sort of assistance.

[sys]

i assumed just to look better; i dunno if there is some other incentive.

[420seriouscat69]

If Sys and Mich lose their jobs tomorrow, how quickly do they change their tune? How far does $1100 go a week in Oakland and shitty Fresno?

[michigancat]

If Sys and Mich lose their jobs tomorrow, how quickly do they change their tune? How far does $1100 go a week in Oakland and shitty Fresno?

Wacks I don't have an issue with states re-opening at all as long as they limit large indoor gatherings. The current shelter in place orders still remaining aren't doing much good on their own IMO.

I worry that the re-openings won't do enough economically because people won't be confident enough to go on with their pre-covid lives. Need more contact tracing and isolation to stamp it out.

[michigancat]

Also like half my office got laid off so don't act like I don't get the economic impact

[Kat Kid]

I don't know why we gave up on testing, but it seems way more possible than contact tracing 1 million+ contacts a day.  I think getting to 1 million+ tests / day has to be easier than contact tracing that many.

my rough math:
.5% death rate of COVID and a daily death rate of 1500
means
150,000 cases/day
x ~10 contacts/day with light reopening

[michigancat]

I don't know why we gave up on testing, but it seems way more possible than contact tracing 1 million+ contacts a day.  I think getting to 1 million+ tests / day has to be easier than contact tracing that many.

my rough math:
.5% death rate of COVID and a daily death rate of 1500
means
150,000 cases/day
x ~10 contacts/day with light reopening

Contact tracing vs testing isn't really an either/or proposition, but you don't need to wait for test capacity to start contact tracing. Also I don't think your math is quite right.
And have we given up on testing? I actually think our testing capacity is pretty good but we aren't doing enough with it.

[sys]

.5% death rate of COVID and a daily death rate of 1500
means 150,000 cases/day

I don't think your math is quite right.

can confirm.

[sys]

unbelievable.

https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1263329713688215552

[Kat Kid]

.5% death rate of COVID and a daily death rate of 1500
means 150,000 cases/day

I don't think your math is quite right.

can confirm.

are we quibbling about rounding here?

[michigancat]

.5% death rate of COVID and a daily death rate of 1500
means 150,000 cases/day

I don't think your math is quite right.

can confirm.

are we quibbling about rounding here?

I should have said your inputs are wrong

[michigancat]

unbelievable.

https://twitter.com/alexismadrigal/status/1263329713688215552

They've really mumped up about every step of the way.

[michigancat]

And maybe I was wrong about having adequate testing capacity