Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1089540 times)

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Offline Kat Kid

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alright, go ahead and judge me.

I have been quarantined with only trips to grocery/food + grandma quarantining since second week of march.

Now, I let my kids ride bikes and play outside with 3 different neighborhood kids. Mostly riding bikes, but some football/rough housing and only outside.

I also let stevesie give me a fist bump today.

Thoughts?

Offline cfbandyman

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alright, go ahead and judge me.

I have been quarantined with only trips to grocery/food + grandma quarantining since second week of march.

Now, I let my kids ride bikes and play outside with 3 different neighborhood kids. Mostly riding bikes, but some football/rough housing and only outside.

I also let stevesie give me a fist bump today.

Thoughts?

:rage:
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Offline cfbandyman

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But seriously, small groups/limited contact is alright (I think). There should be a balance between compete isolation and saying eff it and going off the deep end.

I still don't like that we've set up all these "guidelines" that practically no one has met and just are doing reopening, but I also think there is benefit is getting a lot of places going in limited, phased openings. I think as long as people are doing their best to distance and reduce contact the best they can, wear masks and limit time in high volume areas, that is better than nothing, and letting your kids see their friends is important at some point. A few meet up in a small group, and not done often I don't think that's wholly terrible. I also think people should also keep track if they are getting sick, keep themselves limited if they do is important as well. It goes back to testing again, this whole thing is a giant crap shoot without real accurate info (both who has it and who has had it).
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The art of the deal with it poors

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Offline DaBigTrain

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alright, go ahead and judge me.

I have been quarantined with only trips to grocery/food + grandma quarantining since second week of march.

Now, I let my kids ride bikes and play outside with 3 different neighborhood kids. Mostly riding bikes, but some football/rough housing and only outside.

I also let stevesie give me a fist bump today.

Thoughts?

My biggest issue is the stevesie fist bump....
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

https://blockstream.info/block/000000000019d6689c085ae165831e934ff763ae46a2a6c172b3f1b60a8ce26f

Online michigancat

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oh guess i was wrong, all these states are clearly on the path to zero
I assume you're being glib (maybe you're not?), but acting like new cases is an indicator of relative change doesn't make sense if you ignore testing growth. 

If Texas started testing at the rate it was testing 3 weeks ago, I bet we'd see a pretty significant case drop.  If Texas expanded testing two-fold tomorrow, I bet we'd see a pretty significant uptick.

It all depends on who's getting the expanded test capacity. Assuming Texas had the capacity to test everyone symptomatic 3 weeks ago, you probably wouldn't see much of a spike in cases, because your new tests were coming from a mostly healthy population. when you're seeing an increase in tests + increase in positives + a decrease in positivity rate as Texas has shown, you could definitely have an increase in real cases (tested and untested).

Estimated R may also be useful.

https://rt.live/

0.8 seems to be about the floor across the country.


Offline 420seriouscat69

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We’ve literally been in our houses since mid March to flatten the curve. We got there and now it’s time to get back to work. I said it was a bad day for “CoronaBros”, because our major states for professional sports are ready to make a move to bring them back. If you took that as a slight towards someone on this board, it wasn’t. Just shaming the shutdown and hide in our dungeons until further notice, dorks. Like I said from day 1, the economic outcome of this will greater harm this country vs what this virus has become. There is definitely a line in the sand when it comes to this talking point and the people who act like it’s not a thing on here, While still having their jobs. Sorry @MIR, if that seems “hypocritical” or “irrational”, I’m guilty.

Offline DQ12

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when you're seeing an increase in tests + increase in positives + a decrease in positivity rate as Texas has shown, you could definitely have an increase in real cases (tested and untested).
That's true, but you could also have a decrease in real cases under those circumstances.  That's my point.


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Offline sys

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with respect to texas specifically, i don't think we really have any useful data on the current trajectory of transmission rate.  testing has increased, but they're also reporting antibody tests mixed in with pcr tests, so we have no idea how much pcr testing has increased.  meanwhile, the spike in cases a few days back was, i believe, mostly driven by minor outbreaks in meat packing plants around amarillo.  so it doesn't really tell you much about community transmission in major population centers.
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when you're seeing an increase in tests + increase in positives + a decrease in positivity rate as Texas has shown, you could definitely have an increase in real cases (tested and untested).
That's true, but you could also have a decrease in real cases under those circumstances.  That's my point.

so why don't we look at hospitalizations?

https://txdshs.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/ed483ecd702b4298ab01e8b9cafc8b83

about flat over the last three weeks, which was my point. Open like Texas/Florida/Georgia and you can be pretty steady. Need something more aggressive than California to bring it down past that.

Online michigancat

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alright, go ahead and judge me.

I have been quarantined with only trips to grocery/food + grandma quarantining since second week of march.

Now, I let my kids ride bikes and play outside with 3 different neighborhood kids. Mostly riding bikes, but some football/rough housing and only outside.

I also let stevesie give me a fist bump today.

Thoughts?

I'd worry about your mom and the roughhousing. remove those from the equation and meh.



Offline catastrophe

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with respect to texas specifically, i don't think we really have any useful data on the current trajectory of transmission rate.  testing has increased, but they're also reporting antibody tests mixed in with pcr tests, so we have no idea how much pcr testing has increased.  meanwhile, the spike in cases a few days back was, i believe, mostly driven by minor outbreaks in meat packing plants around amarillo.  so it doesn't really tell you much about community transmission in major population centers.
This seems pretty useful for DFW: https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/covid-19/about-virus-donate-plasma/forecasting-model.html

Offline sonofdaxjones

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[youtube]https://youtu.be/2SdUmsMLW0o[/youtube]

Offline sys

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Old dude said, eff my dead mother

man.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline sys

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with respect to texas specifically, i don't think we really have any useful data on the current trajectory of transmission rate.  testing has increased, but they're also reporting antibody tests mixed in with pcr tests, so we have no idea how much pcr testing has increased.  meanwhile, the spike in cases a few days back was, i believe, mostly driven by minor outbreaks in meat packing plants around amarillo.  so it doesn't really tell you much about community transmission in major population centers.
This seems pretty useful for DFW: https://www.utsouthwestern.edu/covid-19/about-virus-donate-plasma/forecasting-model.html

those are awesome, although i wonder at the quality of the underlying data.  still, that is exactly the kind of output we should be getting from the cdc.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline DQ12

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Crossing my fingers that we're below 1500 today.


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

Offline sys

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things obviously got way out of hand in those countries, but the way france and especially spain crushed their curves has been kinda impressive.  it looked like a sure thing that spain was going to outpace italy, and instead their curve down has been fairly rapid while italy sits on this long ass tail.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=esp&areas=ita&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=cases
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline nicname

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I wonder how much of the difference in number has been/ will be due to variance.
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Offline Spracne

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[youtube]https://youtu.be/2SdUmsMLW0o[/youtube]

MAGA af.

Offline DQ12

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Crossing my fingers that we're below 1500 today.
1430 :thumbs:


"You want to stand next to someone and not be able to hear them, walk your ass into Manhattan, Kansas." - [REDACTED]

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things obviously got way out of hand in those countries, but the way france and especially spain crushed their curves has been kinda impressive.  it looked like a sure thing that spain was going to outpace italy, and instead their curve down has been fairly rapid while italy sits on this long ass tail.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=esp&areas=ita&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&cumulative=0&logScale=1&perMillion=0&values=cases


It would be interesting to see how like Lombardy compared with Madrid and New York, which I thought FT used to have.

and another way of looking at it is western countries with major outbreaks are kind of converging on a pretty similar steady state.


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[youtube]https://youtu.be/2SdUmsMLW0o[/youtube]

MAGA af.

was that like aussie fox & friends?

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[youtube]https://youtu.be/2SdUmsMLW0o[/youtube]

MAGA af.

was that like aussie fox & friends?

lol

Quote
The format was designed as a response to the long-running ABC program Insiders, which many conservatives see as aimed towards the "inner-city leftist class".[2] The hosting trio described themselves as "Trump's Aussie mates"[9] and proudly boasted "absolutely no balance whatsoever", intending to "do the opposite of [Insiders host] Barrie Cassidy".[2] In 2017, the program aired at 10am AEDT, beginning as Insiders concluded, but in 2018, the program added a second hour, beginning at the same time as Insiders and competing with it directly.[1]

Quote
The show debuted with three co-hosts, two of whom were fired for separate controversial comments. Former Labor leader Mark Latham was the show's primary host until his employment was terminated by Sky News on 29 March 2017, following several controversial statements made on the show.[7] On 2 November 2018, former Liberal MP Ross Cameron became the second co-host to be sacked, after making supposedly racist remarks on the program, which were in fact NOT racist when taken in context.[8]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outsiders_(Australian_TV_program)