CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[Phil Titola]

Some states (Georgia, Oklahoma, ) are into their 4th week of stay at home orders being loosened, many into their third and new cases and positive test % keep dropping, this is great news obviously it's just a little odd given what we heard from everybody saying it was too early.  I know each state didn't loosen their orders the same and many cities were after their states so maybe that's part of it?

state reopening details -> https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/states-reopen-map-coronavirus.html

new cases and positive % data -> https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/05/11/interactive-graphic-coronavirus-cases-and-positive-tests-state-by-state/

we've discussed this a few times and it isn't that odd.

Pretty clear that it's a combination of:

1) very few bars/clubs/large gatherings allowed even in reopened states. I guess churches are the exception, would be interesting to see numbers on this moving forward.
2) masks
3) little air travel
4) the major outbreaks in those states had been in meat packing for the most part which remained open the entire time and therefore likely won't see new spikes
5) people are still modifying behavior - eating out less, working from home more, socially distancing, etc.

Like I said, keep an eye on churches

That makes sense. I'm not saying on here but there is a lot of fest out there of a spike because we opened way too soon.

I agree it was the point to reopen slowly so we didn't get a huge uncontrollable growth.

[MakeItRain]

Bad day for Coronabros.

I'm not sure how your bad trolling is any different than what you're accusing sys and rusty of doing.

[420seriouscat69]

That wasn’t a direct shot at them, but ok. There’s a large group out there that don’t want to see the good in any of the data and if they do, they make excuses for it. They’ve made it completely political. California walking back pro sports in the fall already is hysterical. They got dunked on by teams trying to make plans to play elsewhere and completely went limp. It was awesome!

[CHONGS]

He just needs a bit more liquid courage

[Phil Titola]

That wasn’t a direct shot at them, but ok. There’s a large group out there that don’t want to see the good in any of the data and if they do, they make excuses for it. They’ve made it completely political. California walking back pro sports in the fall already is hysterical. They got dunked on by teams trying to make plans to play elsewhere and completely went limp. It was awesome!

I don't think most that are more pessimistic are coming from a political angle. Are there some? I'm sure there are but most seem to come from a more scientific angle that are just much more risk adverse and see models that enforce that thinking. 

[sys]

it'd be interesting to see how different posters are perceived re. the virus.


like, i don't think of myself as pessimistic in the slightest.  entirely the opposite, i think it has proven far easier to control transmission of the virus than was expected.  compared to what others seem to think, i see hardly anyone on twitter who seems to think that to a similar degree.  people here are a little more in-line with my thoughts, but i still perceive myself as much more optimistic than most.

[michigancat]

I'm optimistic about getting ahold of the virus to not have like ventilator triage but worry it won't be enough for economic recovery. Like I'm totally comfortable with georgia-style reopenings nationwide outside of maybe NY and a few meat packing towns. But I don't think there is any serious motivation in this country to get from 1000 deaths/day to zero.

Without getting the virus deaths down to near zero, I think we'll effectively kill international tourism and make international travel and business for US citizens much more difficult, nearly kill domestic air travel, prevent large gatherings, and see a light restaurant recovery until a vaccine. I would love to be wrong.

[MakeItRain]

That wasn’t a direct shot at them, but ok. There’s a large group out there that don’t want to see the good in any of the data and if they do, they make excuses for it. They’ve made it completely political. California walking back pro sports in the fall already is hysterical. They got dunked on by teams trying to make plans to play elsewhere and completely went limp. It was awesome!

This is irrational and hypocritical, there's nothing anyone can say to convince you that this hasn't been an absolute misery for every single person in this country. It's batshit crazy, you should be given pause knowing that only you, dax, and bookie are literally the only people on this board who thinks anyone's prevailing feelings aren't some combination of fear, anger, and/or anxiety. There isn't a person that any of us know, even those who only seem to get satisfaction from "owning" someone, who wouldn't make this go away this second.

You're actually on a sports message board and you've convinced yourself that there's someone here that doesn't want sports, drinks with friends, picnics, family reunions, awesome dinners, going to the gym to be back immediately. Think about how silly that is.

[Phil Titola]

I'm optimistic about getting ahold of the virus to not have like ventilator triage but worry it won't be enough for economic recovery. Like I'm totally comfortable with georgia-style reopenings nationwide outside of maybe NY and a few meat packing towns. But I don't think there is any serious motivation in this country to get from 1000 deaths/day to zero.

Without getting the virus deaths down to near zero, I think we'll effectively kill international tourism and make international travel and business for US citizens much more difficult, nearly kill domestic air travel, prevent large gatherings, and see a light restaurant recovery until a vaccine. I would love to be wrong.

So you don't think we can have restaurant recovery, domestic travel, or large gatherings until we get deaths down to near zero or is that the part you hope to be wrong about?

I think confidence will come back in all those things if deaths are still occurring if new cleaning processes, new treatments, and maturing contact tracing that give people confidence along with the data to show where these infections are occurring.  Right now that data isn't there and so many are freaked not knowing how it's spreading even though lots are starting to think it's only meat packing plants and nursing homes.

[sys]

I think confidence will come back in all those things if deaths are still occurring if new cleaning processes, new treatments, and maturing contact tracing that give people confidence along with the data to show where these infections are occurring.  Right now that data isn't there and so many are freaked not knowing how it's spreading even though lots are starting to think it's only meat packing plants and nursing homes.

this is a good point.  right now, there are people that think the virus isn't very dangerous, which is empirically false.  and there are people that think it can infect any unmasked person that passes within five feet of an infected person, which is pretty close to also being demonstrably shown to be false.

it's one thing for the data to demonstrate what behaviors actually are and are not risky.  it's another thing for the overwhelming majority of society to believe those data and decide to resume less risky behaviors.

[michigancat]

I'm optimistic about getting ahold of the virus to not have like ventilator triage but worry it won't be enough for economic recovery. Like I'm totally comfortable with georgia-style reopenings nationwide outside of maybe NY and a few meat packing towns. But I don't think there is any serious motivation in this country to get from 1000 deaths/day to zero.

Without getting the virus deaths down to near zero, I think we'll effectively kill international tourism and make international travel and business for US citizens much more difficult, nearly kill domestic air travel, prevent large gatherings, and see a light restaurant recovery until a vaccine. I would love to be wrong.

So you don't think we can have restaurant recovery, domestic travel, or large gatherings until we get deaths down to near zero or is that the part you hope to be wrong about?

pretty much. Kind of a chicken vs. the egg thing. I don't think you can keep the cases going down at the same modest rate you're seeing if you have full on large gatherings, restaurants, and domestic travel. So I don't know if you can turn those things on unless the cases are far more manageable nationwide.

I think confidence will come back in all those things if deaths are still occurring if new cleaning processes, new treatments, and maturing contact tracing that give people confidence along with the data to show where these infections are occurring.  Right now that data isn't there and so many are freaked not knowing how it's spreading even though lots are starting to think it's only meat packing plants and nursing homes.

well I wouldn't hold out hope in a new cleaning process or treatment very soon. (again, would like to be wrong). I think with proper contact tracing and isolation you could just get the case load down to a manageable amount (i.e. deaths near zero daily)

[DQ12]

At the rate cases are dropping week over week, death counts could be pretty low (~350/day) here in the next month or so.  Who knows if they keep dropping at that rate or not, but things have been getting quite a bit better at quite a fast rate.

[sys]

things have been getting quite a bit better at quite a fast rate.

eh, most of the country has been shut down in some form for two months.  china took their outbreak from raging fire to almost eradicated in six weeks.

[michigancat]

At the rate cases are dropping week over week, death counts could be pretty low (~350/day) here in the next month or so.  Who knows if they keep dropping at that rate or not, but things have been getting quite a bit better at quite a fast rate.

I think it depends on if the "hotspots" continue their trend or if they level off, because big states that weren't really "hotspots" aren't driving that drop. Like it's pretty concerning that California basically hasn't had a sustained drop in 6 weeks.



http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-normalized&highlight=California&show=highlight-only&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=cases-daily-7&xaxis=right-8wk&extra=Texas,Florida#states-normalized

for reference, here's New York and New Jersey added to that chart:




here's another way of illustrating what I'm getting at:



https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/Coronavirus-ChangeovertimeintheUSA/0_Home

[michigancat]

^The Florida, TX, and CA chart tells me that "lockdown" isn't accomplishing anything beyond avoiding a disastrous spike in hospitalization, which it looks like you can avoid following the model of Florida and Georgia. Need to get serious about test/trace/isolate to get things closer to zero.

[DQ12]

smh with the raw case numbers without contextualizing for testing growth.

[Spracne]

I'd like to see these kinds of figures normalized against, say, daily tests administered. Number of new cases doesn't mean much. I want to know how many new cases / how many tests. I suppose that has been difficult, because often (most of the time?), results come back days later. Maybe like a 5-day rolling average for both would be good.

[DQ12]

I'd like to see these kinds of figures normalized against, say, daily tests administered. Number of new cases doesn't mean much. I want to know how many new cases / how many tests. I suppose that has been difficult, because often (most of the time?), results come back days later. Maybe like a 5-day rolling average for both would be good.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k_QmWvmQOEYNZM70fbnO82vAg4n903Mb3chyHV_SCPE/edit

Updated daily.

[michigancat]

oh guess i was wrong, all these states are clearly on the path to zero

[Spracne]

I'd like to see these kinds of figures normalized against, say, daily tests administered. Number of new cases doesn't mean much. I want to know how many new cases / how many tests. I suppose that has been difficult, because often (most of the time?), results come back days later. Maybe like a 5-day rolling average for both would be good.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k_QmWvmQOEYNZM70fbnO82vAg4n903Mb3chyHV_SCPE/edit

Updated daily.

Yeah, but I'd like to see a more granular breakdown. Comparing state vs. state or region vs. region doesn't mean a whole lot otherwise.

[michigancat]

also hospitalizations are a pretty good metric that isn't super contingent on testing quantity, assuming those who are sick enough to need to be hospitalized have been able to get tests everywhere in the country for quite a while.

[Spracne]

also hospitalizations are a pretty good metric that isn't super contingent on testing quantity, assuming those who are sick enough to need to be hospitalized have been able to get tests everywhere in the country for quite a while.

Assuming all Americans have access to and the inclination to use medical services, that's probably true.

[DQ12]

oh guess i was wrong, all these states are clearly on the path to zero

I assume you're being glib (maybe you're not?), but acting like new cases is an indicator of relative change doesn't make sense if you ignore testing growth. 

If Texas started testing at the rate it was testing 3 weeks ago, I bet we'd see a pretty significant case drop.  If Texas expanded testing two-fold tomorrow, I bet we'd see a pretty significant uptick.

[DQ12]

I'd like to see these kinds of figures normalized against, say, daily tests administered. Number of new cases doesn't mean much. I want to know how many new cases / how many tests. I suppose that has been difficult, because often (most of the time?), results come back days later. Maybe like a 5-day rolling average for both would be good.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k_QmWvmQOEYNZM70fbnO82vAg4n903Mb3chyHV_SCPE/edit

Updated daily.

Yeah, but I'd like to see a more granular breakdown. Comparing state vs. state or region vs. region doesn't mean a whole lot otherwise.

I think the divoc database might do that?  Michigan is more familiar with that than i am though. 

[michigancat]

I'd like to see these kinds of figures normalized against, say, daily tests administered. Number of new cases doesn't mean much. I want to know how many new cases / how many tests. I suppose that has been difficult, because often (most of the time?), results come back days later. Maybe like a 5-day rolling average for both would be good.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1k_QmWvmQOEYNZM70fbnO82vAg4n903Mb3chyHV_SCPE/edit

Updated daily.

Yeah, but I'd like to see a more granular breakdown. Comparing state vs. state or region vs. region doesn't mean a whole lot otherwise.

I think the divoc database might do that?  Michigan is more familiar with that than i am though. 

you can sort of see that by state playing around here:

https://public.tableau.com/shared/ZCDY7W8WS?:display_count=y&:origin=viz_share_link