there is already an antibody test approved.
dlew, that link you showed had ny squarely in the predicted range for icu patients and the last i saw the natl death number was also tracking predictions.
the thing i don't understand with those uw predictions is how they have everything leveling off to zeroish. i haven't seen data that suggests transmission is below one (although maybe it is, who knows). more troubling, when you look at the east asian countries that have controlled or dodged severe covid 19 outbreaks - several are seeing upticks in cases and/or implementing more severe social distancing measures.
seasonality is the big unknown, but even if we get lucky there, it just pushes things a little farther into the future.
