CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[chum1]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1247275032109334528

[Spracne]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1247275032109334528

I'm somewhat wary to automatically assume the worst about stories like these. I get that it looks bad, but there are also plenty of benign explanations, too. Many of these folks likely have external advisers who have agency to buy and sell on their behalf constantly. And those types of advisers would also be reading tea leaves and trying to predict what's on the horizon. In sum, not a good look, but too circumstantial to assign blame, without more.

[sys]

this is so weird.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1247335425074696199

[Institutional Control]

https://twitter.com/lizzkatherine_/status/1247291781978431489?s=21


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[420seriouscat69]

New Orleans is like 60-65% African American and that’s one of the main epicenters for it.

[DQ12]

dlew, that link you showed had ny squarely in the predicted range for icu patients and the last i saw the natl death number was also tracking predictions.

That "prediction" for yesterday was updated last night.  Anyway, the new projection cut the number of hospital beds needed for the peak from 262,000 to 141,000 and ICU beds from 39,700 to 29,200.  Obviously there's nothing nefarious behind it, all but the point is the models are updating and projecting significantly lower than their original projections.  Putting it simply, right now, things aren't as bad as we thought they'd be. Which is very encouraging for the here and now, but also encouraging for the future.

A coronavirus projection used by the White House to warn that the country could face between 100,000 and 200,000 deaths in a “best case scenario” has dramatically reduced its estimates, cutting the number of hospital beds needed by 58 percent and the death forecast by 12 percent.

The IHME model, produced by the University of Washington, updated its numbers overnight to show that projected deaths decreased from 93,531 to 81,766, and the projected total bed shortage fell from 87,674 to 36,654, after projected needed hospital beds fell 45 percent from 262,000 to 141,000 and needed ICU beds decreased 26 percent from almost 39,700 to 29,200. While the model remained unchanged in estimating a peak of April 15, it also moved forward its projected date of fewer than 200 daily deaths from June 3 to May 18.

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/coronavirus-model-used-by-white-house-changed-to-reflect-decrease-in-projected-fatalities/

[MakeItRain]

New Orleans is like 60-65% African American and that’s one of the main epicenters for it.

I'm not picking on you, fanman, but this is the second time this has come up and it's been dismissed by essentially "well duh, lots of black people live there." Even if this is just dumb luck of hitting metro areas where there are higher African American populations, we need to study why specifically these areas are being hit disproportionately higher. New York, Detroit, and New Orleans aren't close to each other, at all. If this is purely geographical, then we need to look at what policies have caused this, if by God it's tied to genetic predisposition, that would be great to know as well. I have no illusions that the curiosity about these rates goes to a level where anything meaningful and actionable will be done.

[420seriouscat69]

I definitely hate the numbers, just trying to make some sense from it. Louisiana is a poor state as well, so I wonder the living situations of many of the victims there.

[420seriouscat69]

I can say with certainty though, that there’s a lot of old $ down there and corrupt connections, etc. So I understand what you’re totally getting at.

[catastrophe]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1247275032109334528

I'm somewhat wary to automatically assume the worst about stories like these. I get that it looks bad, but there are also plenty of benign explanations, too. Many of these folks likely have external advisers who have agency to buy and sell on their behalf constantly. And those types of advisers would also be reading tea leaves and trying to predict what's on the horizon. In sum, not a good look, but too circumstantial to assign blame, without more.

Not to mention DuPont makes a crap load more than PPE.

[DQ12]

New Orleans is like 60-65% African American and that’s one of the main epicenters for it.

I'm not picking on you, fanman, but this is the second time this has come up and it's been dismissed by essentially "well duh, lots of black people live there." Even if this is just dumb luck of hitting metro areas where there are higher African American populations, we need to study why specifically these areas are being hit disproportionately higher. New York, Detroit, and New Orleans aren't close to each other, at all. If this is purely geographical, then we need to look at what policies have caused this, if by God it's tied to genetic predisposition, that would be great to know as well. I have no illusions that the curiosity about these rates goes to a level where anything meaningful and actionable will be done.

I didn't mean to be flippant/dismissive in my response re. Detroit.  That just seemed like the most obvious explanation for the data.  You're right though that there are other potential causes that are worth exploring.  I'd be pretty surprised if there was a physiological explanation, but what the hell do I know. 

[catastrophe]

I think it’s completely reasonable to think a virus like this could be disproportionately mild on a race like Asians and disproportionately severe on a race like African Americans. It’s also entirely possible the African American cases are just concentrated in overloaded metro hospitals where they’re not getting the same level of care you might get elsewhere.

[MakeItRain]

I can say with certainty though, that there’s a lot of old $ down there and corrupt connections, etc. So I understand what you’re totally getting at.

I'm not getting at anything, I have no idea why the numbers seem to be why they are, but I'd sure like to find out. The rather quick flattening in Seattle, for instance, is interesting to me. I bet if the numbers were extroverted extracted farther you'd find the race disparity even greater in younger age brackets. There is no conspiracy theory from me, other than I don't think there will be motivation to find out why this is happening.

[DQ12]

I can say with certainty though, that there’s a lot of old $ down there and corrupt connections, etc. So I understand what you’re totally getting at.

I'm not getting at anything, I have no idea why the numbers seem to be why they are, but I'd sure like to find out. The rather quick flattening in Seattle, for instance, is interesting to me. I bet if the numbers were extroverted extracted farther you'd find the race disparity even greater in younger age brackets. There is no conspiracy theory from me, other than I don't think there will be motivation to find out why this is happening.

I think there will be disgusting amounts of scholarship for years on this period. 

[nicname]

New Orleans is like 60-65% African American and that’s one of the main epicenters for it.

I'm not picking on you, fanman, but this is the second time this has come up and it's been dismissed by essentially "well duh, lots of black people live there." Even if this is just dumb luck of hitting metro areas where there are higher African American populations, we need to study why specifically these areas are being hit disproportionately higher. New York, Detroit, and New Orleans aren't close to each other, at all. If this is purely geographical, then we need to look at what policies have caused this, if by God it's tied to genetic predisposition, that would be great to know as well. I have no illusions that the curiosity about these rates goes to a level where anything meaningful and actionable will be done.

I hope you saw my apology for earlier chiming in about the demographics without taking the time to empathize with your concern about possible genetic predisposition to be more seriously at risk from this thing.

[MakeItRain]

New Orleans is like 60-65% African American and that’s one of the main epicenters for it.

I'm not picking on you, fanman, but this is the second time this has come up and it's been dismissed by essentially "well duh, lots of black people live there." Even if this is just dumb luck of hitting metro areas where there are higher African American populations, we need to study why specifically these areas are being hit disproportionately higher. New York, Detroit, and New Orleans aren't close to each other, at all. If this is purely geographical, then we need to look at what policies have caused this, if by God it's tied to genetic predisposition, that would be great to know as well. I have no illusions that the curiosity about these rates goes to a level where anything meaningful and actionable will be done.

I hope you saw my apology for earlier chiming in about the demographics without taking the time to empathize with your concern about possible genetic predisposition to be more seriously at risk from this thing.

I did not, but none of you need to apologize. I will say generally when issues of race arise, a frequent point of frustration of poc is the seeming quick answer and general lack of deeper curiosity.

[nicname]

New Orleans is like 60-65% African American and that’s one of the main epicenters for it.

I'm not picking on you, fanman, but this is the second time this has come up and it's been dismissed by essentially "well duh, lots of black people live there." Even if this is just dumb luck of hitting metro areas where there are higher African American populations, we need to study why specifically these areas are being hit disproportionately higher. New York, Detroit, and New Orleans aren't close to each other, at all. If this is purely geographical, then we need to look at what policies have caused this, if by God it's tied to genetic predisposition, that would be great to know as well. I have no illusions that the curiosity about these rates goes to a level where anything meaningful and actionable will be done.

I hope you saw my apology for earlier chiming in about the demographics without taking the time to empathize with your concern about possible genetic predisposition to be more seriously at risk from this thing.

I did not, but none of you need to apologize. I will say generally when issues of race arise, a frequent point of frustration of poc is the seeming quick answer and general lack of deeper curiosity.

Yes, which is the reason for the apology.

[MakeItRain]

It's all good bro

[Spracne]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1247275032109334528

I'm somewhat wary to automatically assume the worst about stories like these. I get that it looks bad, but there are also plenty of benign explanations, too. Many of these folks likely have external advisers who have agency to buy and sell on their behalf constantly. And those types of advisers would also be reading tea leaves and trying to predict what's on the horizon. In sum, not a good look, but too circumstantial to assign blame, without more.

Not to mention DuPont makes a crap load more than PPE.

Yes, I meant to include that remark, too.

[michigancat]

https://twitter.com/ossoff/status/1247275032109334528

I'm somewhat wary to automatically assume the worst about stories like these. I get that it looks bad, but there are also plenty of benign explanations, too. Many of these folks likely have external advisers who have agency to buy and sell on their behalf constantly. And those types of advisers would also be reading tea leaves and trying to predict what's on the horizon. In sum, not a good look, but too circumstantial to assign blame, without more.

I can see that, but on the flipside, I think it's a stretch that all these guys and gals are totally in the dark about million+ dollar transactions of individual stocks their financial managers are making. It's like I imagine they all have some sort of threshold where they gotta check in

[michigancat]

this is so weird.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1247335425074696199

Free market, baby

[Katpappy]

This discussion should be in the POS Pubs thread.  The worst think about this is these fucks acted like they were surprised by the COVID-19 pandemic about 2 months after they knew what was going to happen.

[Katpappy]

this is so weird.

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1247335425074696199

Free market, baby

Yea this is great that these corp. fucks get to make a profit off of tax payers as usual.

[sys]

That "prediction" for yesterday was updated last night.  Anyway, the new projection cut the number of hospital beds needed for the peak from 262,000 to 141,000 and ICU beds from 39,700 to 29,200. 

fair enough.

[Stevesie60]

This should be a lesson to all of you people that nobody on gE is irreplaceable.

I doubt anything has been put on The Word in the past 5 years, but adding things to The Word should come out of retirement just for this.