CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread

[Justwin]

I mean maybe they did the math. Cause the estimated death toll reported to the WH was over the number you think would justify the measures we’re taking.

Sweeping new federal recommendations announced on Monday for Americans to sharply limit their activities appeared to draw on a dire scientific report warning that, without action by the government and individuals to slow the spread of coronavirus and suppress new cases, 2.2 million people in the United States could die.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/16/us/coronavirus-fatality-rate-white-house.html

The current measures being undertaken were not and are not going to save all of those people and current measures are not as severe as what is in the report.  Even in the report, they don't claim that all of those people are going to be saved. 

We find that that optimal mitigation policies (combining home isolation of suspect cases, home quarantine of those living in the same household as suspect cases, and social distancing of the
elderly and others at most risk of severe disease) might reduce peak healthcare demand by 2/3 and deaths by half. However, the resulting mitigated epidemic would still likely result in hundreds of
thousands of deaths and health systems (most notably intensive care units) being overwhelmed many times over.

Additionally, you have to implement these policies for 18 months to get the maximum number of deaths averted.  People will not stand for these measures enduring for many months, let alone for 18 months.  The report is also based on an IFR or CFR of 0.9%, which is likely double what it truly is.  This has a big impact on the potential benefits.

I gotta be honest, it feels like you’re moving the goalposts which is a bunch of malarkey IYAM.

I asked what projected death total would justify our current measure and you said 1-2 million. Now you’re telling me that’s only if you could guarantee it would save the entire 1-2 million?

Moving the goalposts?  The marginal benefit is always what matters.  The absolute numbers themselves are not.  If the lives lost with no actions is 10 million and the lives lost with action is 8 million, that is no different than going from 4 million lives lost to 2 million lives lost.  That is why I speak in terms of QALYs gained and deaths averted.

[DaBigTrain]

Man there are a lot of really long posts I’m not reading right now from this guy.

[catastrophe]

go Iceland

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1241686739862913024

If the new 45 minute test turns out to be effective and scalable, I think this is our quickest path to business as usual. Test the crap out of everyone.

[nicname]

go Iceland

https://twitter.com/LizSly/status/1241686739862913024

If the new 45 minute test turns out to be effective and scalable, I think this is our quickest path to business as usual. Test the crap out of everyone.

Yep, especially if they can be self administered and easily distributed.

[wetwillie]

What’s the bottleneck on increasing capacity temporarily?  I assume it’s qualified medical staff and not as much facilities and equipment.   Could folks like Dentists and physical therapists and others with some medical training be utilized if we could find the space and equipment to put more people?

[steve dave]

https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1241780756617273345

https://twitter.com/ronpaul/status/1239551403074433025


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[Spracne]

yeah nevermind i actually prefer blacked out wacky yelling at tbt

my man...

[Spracne]

Also, I'm shocked that math bores mocat.

[michigancat]

I've been wondering about this too! Is it production of test kits or processing of test (personel and equipment). My guess is lab availability of a quick turn around test (we don't probably have high capacity in a quick turnaround test that doesn't need specialized equipment, but idk what is the turn around time for say South Korea's test for example).

What’s the bottleneck on increasing capacity temporarily?  I assume it’s qualified medical staff and not as much facilities and equipment.   Could folks like Dentists and physical therapists and others with some medical training be utilized if we could find the space and equipment to put more people?

I'm pretty sure it's a combination of equipment (both PPE for staff and swabs for taking the sample), personnel, and lab capacity. It isn't like these labs were idle before all this started.

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/03/18/817801222/testing-swabs-run-in-short-supply-as-makers-try-to-speed-up-production

[wetwillie]

I actually meant more hospital type capacity to treat those with critical cases.  Like instead of flattening the curve increasing the capacity to absorb a more pronounced peak in demand.  I haven’t seen it talked about much so I assume it’s not really an option.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Did you guys know, according to the CDC, that 400-500 Americans are dying every week right now from the flu? Another 2000-3000 per week are dying from flu related Pneumonia? That's crazy.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

[catastrophe]

I actually meant more hospital type capacity to treat those with critical cases.  Like instead of flattening the curve increasing the capacity to absorb a more pronounced peak in demand.  I haven’t seen it talked about much so I assume it’s not really an option.

I think that’s being implemented but it certainly is not feasible in its own. Can’t remember specifically the numbers but we have a capacity of under 200k in ICU’s right now and this could peak at over 900k if we don’t flatten the curve. Hospitals can’t increase capacity over 4x.

[420seriouscat69]

https://twitter.com/randpaul/status/1241780756617273345?s=21

[steve dave]

Neighbors. My name is REDACTED, I work at The Nebraska Medical Center/UNMC. I am not a Doctor, I am not a Nurse. My job is to make sure that our front line healthcare workers have the equipment and supplies they need to do their jobs, which is taking care of all of us.

Many have asked how they can help during these unprecedented times which doesn’t surprise me in the least. As a longtime resident of REDACTED, I know the community always steps up when it needs to step up. There has never been a more critical time to step up than right now.

At Nebraska Medicine, we are truly the leaders in pandemic care and treatment. Our amazing workers have literally written the book that other hospitals around the world use to fight this and other pandemics. That being said, we are critically low on products to keep these workers, fighting for all of us, safe. Because of recent buying patterns, the supply chain for hand sanitizer, germicidal wipes (Clorox wipes), and N95 protective masks has temporarily dried up. The supply chain will catch back up, but we need them now. I am confident that many of us have a lifetime of hand sanitizer and germicidal wipes stashed under our kitchen sinks or in our cupboards.

My call to action is this…please reallocate your unopened inventories of hand sanitizer wipes and masks to those on the front line, that with all of your help will succeed at stopping the spread, allowing all of us to get back to whatever the new normal will become.

I have containers at REDACTED. Please consider donating your product so I can get it in the hands of our front line staff immediately.

If anybody has contacts for large quantities of these items from corporate America please feel free to reach out to me at REDACTED. We literally need all we can get.

Please feel free to increase this messages penetration and share it.

My most sincere thank you for anyone who is able to step up and help during this time. We must act now.

[Phil Titola]

I actually meant more hospital type capacity to treat those with critical cases.  Like instead of flattening the curve increasing the capacity to absorb a more pronounced peak in demand.  I haven’t seen it talked about much so I assume it’s not really an option.

Field hospitals and medical ships sounds like the only real options

[catastrophe]

Been wondering how many places are doing drives like SD’s. Makes a lot of sense.

[michigancat]

Did you guys know, according to the CDC, that 400-500 Americans are dying every week right now from the flu? Another 2000-3000 per week are dying from flu related Pneumonia? That's crazy.

https://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/mortality.html

just think how high it would be without the flu vaccine or enough hospital beds to treat everyone!

[Spracne]

Kind of surprised to learn that hospitals use Clorox wipes.

[steve dave]

Kind of surprised to learn that hospitals use Clorox wipes.

you now what surprised the crap out of me one time? if they have to drill screws into your bones or open up your skull they use like DeWalt power tools. I guess I always assumed there was some high tech medical drill or something. nope, whatever was on sale at Home Depot.

[michigancat]

I actually meant more hospital type capacity to treat those with critical cases.  Like instead of flattening the curve increasing the capacity to absorb a more pronounced peak in demand.  I haven’t seen it talked about much so I assume it’s not really an option.

A few I've heard:

cancel all elective surgeries
convert existing standard rooms to negative pressure isolation units
preparing to hook up multiple patients to a single ventilator

And of course quicker test turnaround helps because you can get suspected covid cases out of isolation units and into more traditional rooms or even send them home

[steve dave]

nurse relative of mine in wichita was exclusively elective surgery type nurse (I know nothing about nurses) but she took a voluntary 2 month furlough because the hospital was cancelling all of her work.

[Spracne]

Kind of surprised to learn that hospitals use Clorox wipes.

you now what surprised the crap out of me one time? if they have to drill screws into your bones or open up your skull they use like DeWalt power tools. I guess I always assumed there was some high tech medical drill or something. nope, whatever was on sale at Home Depot.

[catastrophe]

I actually meant more hospital type capacity to treat those with critical cases.  Like instead of flattening the curve increasing the capacity to absorb a more pronounced peak in demand.  I haven’t seen it talked about much so I assume it’s not really an option.

A few I've heard:

cancel all elective surgeries
convert existing standard rooms to negative pressure isolation units
preparing to hook up multiple patients to a single ventilator

And of course quicker test turnaround helps because you can get suspected covid cases out of isolation units and into more traditional rooms or even send them home

Surgeon buddy basically staying at home now cause they already cancelled all elective surgeries.

I think Washington also changed its children’s hospitals to anyone under 21.

So there doing all they can right now I think. It just won’t be enough.

[jmlynch1]

https://twitter.com/RandPaul/status/1241780756617273345

karma

He must have one of those 45 minute Iceland tests. Surely he wouldn't have suspected he was carrying and then continue not to self-quarantine for the next four days.

[michigancat]

I actually meant more hospital type capacity to treat those with critical cases.  Like instead of flattening the curve increasing the capacity to absorb a more pronounced peak in demand.  I haven’t seen it talked about much so I assume it’s not really an option.

A few I've heard:

cancel all elective surgeries
convert existing standard rooms to negative pressure isolation units
preparing to hook up multiple patients to a single ventilator

And of course quicker test turnaround helps because you can get suspected covid cases out of isolation units and into more traditional rooms or even send them home

Surgeon buddy basically staying at home now cause they already cancelled all elective surgeries.

I think Washington also changed its children’s hospitals to anyone under 21.

So there doing all they can right now I think. It just won’t be enough.

agree, even with the shelter in place measures it's gonna be ugly