Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1572611 times)

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Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1125 on: March 15, 2020, 06:06:29 PM »
Italy has both a horrifically old population (the key risk demo) and shitty healthcare.

this is not at all true.  i'm not going to post a link, because i spent a few minutes googling and the various rankings i saw were all over the place and some/many seem to include criteria not particularly meaningful to this situation but everything i saw had italy ranked as one of the better health care systems in the world.

But Italy certainly does have the 2nd oldest population in the world.  Also, healthcare rankings looking at overall healthcare systems are not that meaningful in these situations.  What is important is the quality of the critical care in your country.  Admittedly, I don't know of too many rankings of this component of a healthcare system.

Offline chum1

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1126 on: March 15, 2020, 06:07:25 PM »
Justwin seems like an actuary who thinks actuaries are undervalued and is maybe a little bitter about it.

Offline Justwin

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1127 on: March 15, 2020, 06:09:17 PM »
Whoever is doing the JustWin sock, you got us. “I did some back of the envelope calculations” is pretty funny, but too much of a tell.

40% infection rate.
0.5% CFR.
1.2 QALYs per fatality prevented.
$125,000 per QALY.

$97.5 billion in benefits.

Offline star seed 7

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1128 on: March 15, 2020, 06:10:00 PM »
Just talked to my mom, who is director level for a hospital network in the bay area. She said they are already overwhelmed in icu and er. Also they have almost entirely run out of ppe because it's all manufactured in China.

She told my 80yr old grandma in Sacramento to stay home last week and she's following that, so at least she should be safe.
Hyperbolic partisan duplicitous hypocrite

Offline star seed 7

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1129 on: March 15, 2020, 06:12:21 PM »
I went skiing yesterday and it was amazingly low crowds - until the ducking governor closed the resorts today.

Lololol. Now I get why he's so pissed.

KSUW, thank you for your service.

Late to acknowledge this, but what an amazing reveal
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Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1130 on: March 15, 2020, 06:13:00 PM »
Just talked to my mom, who is director level for a hospital network in the bay area. She said they are already overwhelmed in icu and er. Also they have almost entirely run out of ppe because it's all manufactured in China.

She told my 80yr old grandma in Sacramento to stay home last week and she's following that, so at least she should be safe.

my wife's ICU isn't overwhelmed yet but they're preparing for it. Definitely running low on PPE.

Might be the same network! :eek:

Offline bucket

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1131 on: March 15, 2020, 06:19:40 PM »
Just talked to my mom, who is director level for a hospital network in the bay area. She said they are already overwhelmed in icu and er. Also they have almost entirely run out of ppe because it's all manufactured in China.

She told my 80yr old grandma in Sacramento to stay home last week and she's following that, so at least she should be safe.

I bought my grandma Bombshell, Casablanca and Planet Earth on Amazon and they should arrive on Thursday. She saw Bombshell in the theatres last weekend and couldn't keep up and said she wanted to watch it again.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1133 on: March 15, 2020, 06:47:35 PM »
Imagine flying in the air less than 24 hours ago and rushing to your keyboard to talk crap on ppl going out to eat!

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1134 on: March 15, 2020, 06:50:11 PM »
I thought you weren’t the victim?
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

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Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1135 on: March 15, 2020, 06:52:49 PM »
Lol. Wut? Stop trying to spread diseases, dumbass.

Offline bucket

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1136 on: March 15, 2020, 06:53:10 PM »
You both should stop

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1137 on: March 15, 2020, 06:54:54 PM »


Whoever is doing the JustWin sock, you got us. “I did some back of the envelope calculations” is pretty funny, but too much of a tell.

40% infection rate.
0.5% CFR.
1.2 QALYs per fatality prevented.
$125,000 per QALY.

$97.5 billion in benefits.

LOL

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1138 on: March 15, 2020, 06:59:47 PM »
I honestly can’t believe this dude banged his own chest and talked crap on the world about this virus as he was the only human being boarding a plane during the process and lecturing people openly About how going out is bad. Lololololz.

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1139 on: March 15, 2020, 07:02:21 PM »
That is one really long run on sentence. Yikes.
"The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks"

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Offline Spracne

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1140 on: March 15, 2020, 07:04:10 PM »
That is one really long run on sentence. Yikes.

It wasn't too bad.
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Offline K-S-U-Wildcats!

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1141 on: March 15, 2020, 07:04:20 PM »
Speaking of long.... In all seriousness, people should do what they want to do. I’m not upset by people deciding to isolate. I am pretty upset about governments mandating that businesses shut down, which is probably illegal and economically destructive.

Herewith I’m going to posit some things which I believe to be common sense. If you disagree, well ok then.

1. Had the current state of social media, and specifically twitter and twitter-journalism, existed during events such as H1N1, Y2K, etc. the hysteria over those events would have been worse. I hope we can at least agree so far. I would therefore posit that it is likely that at least a portion of the current magnitude of hysteria is due to the social media echo-chamber.

2. At least some progressives are hoping that this outbreak will be a calamity for the economy and/or Trump (and an economic catastrophe is a catastrophe for Trump) because Trump was otherwise sailing to reelection against a horrific dem field. And, most journos are Trump-hating progressives. Put these facts together, and again, it is at least somewhat likely that some journos have mixed motivation in their reporting and furthering of hysteria.

3. Many of the posters here who are freaking out about this virus were also freaking out about Trump colluding with Russia. One more reason not to invest too heavily in Twitter-journalism, especially when you add a dollop of politics (see above).

4. Most politicians aren’t leaders so much as they are political weathervanes. So a gov shutting down restaurants should never be cited as proof of how serious something is. To a politician, their incentive is never be accused of “not doing enough” for which they would be hammered politically. They won’t be similarly hammered for doing too much because, hey, they were just following recommendations or what other leaders were doing.

5. The chicken littles, whether in government, media, or everyday walks of life, will never admit they overreacted. For three reasons: (1) they’ll always point to the draconian steps that were taken, even if they seriously harm the economy, as the reason for why the death toll didn’t hit the dreadful numbers of those simulations, (2) there’s always going to be a new study, a new tweet, to which they’ll cling, and (3) hey, they were just taking responsible precautions. But sending us into an economic depression is not responsible.

All of these are reasons to be skeptical. All I’m asking is to approach this issue not with disbelief, but with skepticism and perspective. These are things that many journalists have long since abandoned.
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Offline Spracne

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1142 on: March 15, 2020, 07:06:22 PM »
Speaking of long.... In all seriousness, people should do what they want to do. I’m not upset by people deciding to isolate. I am pretty upset about governments mandating that businesses shut down, which is probably illegal and economically destructive.


I just want to focus on this "illegal" claim, which you've now floated twice. Illegal on what basis?
« Last Edit: March 15, 2020, 07:09:45 PM by Spracne »
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Offline bucket

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1143 on: March 15, 2020, 07:07:29 PM »
Speaking of long.... In all seriousness, people should do what they want to do. I’m not upset by people deciding to isolate. I am pretty upset about governments mandating that businesses shut down, which is probably illegal and economically destructive.

Herewith I’m going to posit some things which I believe to be common sense. If you disagree, well ok then.

1. Had the current state of social media, and specifically twitter and twitter-journalism, existed during events such as H1N1, Y2K, etc. the hysteria over those events would have been worse. I hope we can at least agree so far. I would therefore posit that it is likely that at least a portion of the current magnitude of hysteria is due to the social media echo-chamber.

2. At least some progressives are hoping that this outbreak will be a calamity for the economy and/or Trump (and an economic catastrophe is a catastrophe for Trump) because Trump was otherwise sailing to reelection against a horrific dem field. And, most journos are Trump-hating progressives. Put these facts together, and again, it is at least somewhat likely that some journos have mixed motivation in their reporting and furthering of hysteria.

3. Many of the posters here who are freaking out about this virus were also freaking out about Trump colluding with Russia. One more reason not to invest too heavily in Twitter-journalism, especially when you add a dollop of politics (see above).

4. Most politicians aren’t leaders so much as they are political weathervanes. So a gov shutting down restaurants should never be cited as proof of how serious something is. To a politician, their incentive is never be accused of “not doing enough” for which they would be hammered politically. They won’t be similarly hammered for doing too much because, hey, they were just following recommendations or what other leaders were doing.

5. The chicken littles, whether in government, media, or everyday walks of life, will never admit they overreacted. For three reasons: (1) they’ll always point to the draconian steps that were taken, even if they seriously harm the economy, as the reason for why the death toll didn’t hit the dreadful numbers of those simulations, (2) there’s always going to be a new study, a new tweet, to which they’ll cling, and (3) hey, they were just taking responsible precautions. But sending us into an economic depression is not responsible.

All of these are reasons to be skeptical. All I’m asking is to approach this issue not with disbelief, but with skepticism and perspective. These are things that many journalists have long since abandoned.

OMG  :lol:

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1144 on: March 15, 2020, 07:08:49 PM »
Speaking of long.... In all seriousness, people should do what they want to do. I’m not upset by people deciding to isolate. I am pretty upset about governments mandating that businesses shut down, which is probably illegal and economically destructive.


I just want to focus on this "illegal" claim, which you've know floated twice. Illegal on what basis?
It’s illegal to close the ski slopes when someone is on vacation.
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Offline catastrophe

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1145 on: March 15, 2020, 07:09:11 PM »
If I were President I’d be all over $97.5 billion to save a few thousand citizens. How much do you think we spend in antiterrorism efforts?

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1146 on: March 15, 2020, 07:13:10 PM »
Conservatives: “go out to eat and try and help a server by tipping 20%”

TBT: “rough ridin' losers! I just boarded this plane in my own row and washed my hands. What a clown service you guys have going on out there!”

Offline michigancat

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1147 on: March 15, 2020, 07:14:36 PM »
If I were President I’d be all over $97.5 billion to save a few thousand citizens. How much do you think we spend in antiterrorism efforts?
*A few hundred thousand citizens

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1148 on: March 15, 2020, 07:17:36 PM »
Speaking of long.... In all seriousness, people should do what they want to do. I’m not upset by people deciding to isolate. I am pretty upset about governments mandating that businesses shut down, which is probably illegal and economically destructive.

Herewith I’m going to posit some things which I believe to be common sense. If you disagree, well ok then.

1. Had the current state of social media, and specifically twitter and twitter-journalism, existed during events such as H1N1, Y2K, etc. the hysteria over those events would have been worse. I hope we can at least agree so far. I would therefore posit that it is likely that at least a portion of the current magnitude of hysteria is due to the social media echo-chamber.

2. At least some progressives are hoping that this outbreak will be a calamity for the economy and/or Trump (and an economic catastrophe is a catastrophe for Trump) because Trump was otherwise sailing to reelection against a horrific dem field. And, most journos are Trump-hating progressives. Put these facts together, and again, it is at least somewhat likely that some journos have mixed motivation in their reporting and furthering of hysteria.

3. Many of the posters here who are freaking out about this virus were also freaking out about Trump colluding with Russia. One more reason not to invest too heavily in Twitter-journalism, especially when you add a dollop of politics (see above).

4. Most politicians aren’t leaders so much as they are political weathervanes. So a gov shutting down restaurants should never be cited as proof of how serious something is. To a politician, their incentive is never be accused of “not doing enough” for which they would be hammered politically. They won’t be similarly hammered for doing too much because, hey, they were just following recommendations or what other leaders were doing.

5. The chicken littles, whether in government, media, or everyday walks of life, will never admit they overreacted. For three reasons: (1) they’ll always point to the draconian steps that were taken, even if they seriously harm the economy, as the reason for why the death toll didn’t hit the dreadful numbers of those simulations, (2) there’s always going to be a new study, a new tweet, to which they’ll cling, and (3) hey, they were just taking responsible precautions. But sending us into an economic depression is not responsible.

All of these are reasons to be skeptical. All I’m asking is to approach this issue not with disbelief, but with skepticism and perspective. These are things that many journalists have long since abandoned.
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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Thanks China (and Canada) . . . Topic: CoronaVirus!
« Reply #1149 on: March 15, 2020, 07:18:32 PM »
Speaking of long.... In all seriousness, people should do what they want to do. I’m not upset by people deciding to isolate. I am pretty upset about governments mandating that businesses shut down, which is probably illegal and economically destructive.

Herewith I’m going to posit some things which I believe to be common sense. If you disagree, well ok then.

1. Had the current state of social media, and specifically twitter and twitter-journalism, existed during events such as H1N1, Y2K, etc. the hysteria over those events would have been worse. I hope we can at least agree so far. I would therefore posit that it is likely that at least a portion of the current magnitude of hysteria is due to the social media echo-chamber.

2. At least some progressives are hoping that this outbreak will be a calamity for the economy and/or Trump (and an economic catastrophe is a catastrophe for Trump) because Trump was otherwise sailing to reelection against a horrific dem field. And, most journos are Trump-hating progressives. Put these facts together, and again, it is at least somewhat likely that some journos have mixed motivation in their reporting and furthering of hysteria.

3. Many of the posters here who are freaking out about this virus were also freaking out about Trump colluding with Russia. One more reason not to invest too heavily in Twitter-journalism, especially when you add a dollop of politics (see above).

4. Most politicians aren’t leaders so much as they are political weathervanes. So a gov shutting down restaurants should never be cited as proof of how serious something is. To a politician, their incentive is never be accused of “not doing enough” for which they would be hammered politically. They won’t be similarly hammered for doing too much because, hey, they were just following recommendations or what other leaders were doing.

5. The chicken littles, whether in government, media, or everyday walks of life, will never admit they overreacted. For three reasons: (1) they’ll always point to the draconian steps that were taken, even if they seriously harm the economy, as the reason for why the death toll didn’t hit the dreadful numbers of those simulations, (2) there’s always going to be a new study, a new tweet, to which they’ll cling, and (3) hey, they were just taking responsible precautions. But sending us into an economic depression is not responsible.

All of these are reasons to be skeptical. All I’m asking is to approach this issue not with disbelief, but with skepticism and perspective. These are things that many journalists have long since abandoned.

I wouldn't deem these as common sense statements but I could actually see some validity to parts of your statements if we weren't staring at watching what European and Asian countries going though. And they are in front of us on the timeline.

How do you dismis that data? The experts opinions? Trump's own experts saying he would like to see two week shutdown?