Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1069728 times)

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Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8125 on: July 01, 2020, 09:09:03 PM »
A science dude I know likes to play with the data.

https://twitter.com/stet_dot_net/status/1278483143553617930

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8126 on: July 01, 2020, 09:16:01 PM »
Are bars a bad place because people are all horned up and hooking up? I’m trying to grasp this. There’s usually tables in between sections and everyone is wearing a mask. Most of the time. Just what I’ve seen from a distance, from the lake.

there's quite a few reasons bars are the worst places open right now. let's assume you're interacting with someone infected that is contagious. There's three main factors controlling your chance of transmission:

1) Proximity - the closer you are, the more likely you'll inhale their droplets. Good on bars at the lake enforcing mask use and social distancing, but as people drink alcohol, I imagine the mask use as distance between parties goes down. You can look at the bar in East Lansing for evidence of this
2) Time - the longer you're interacting with someone, again, the more opportunities to inhale their droplets. Everyone brings up the grocery store checkout line, but you're usually there for what, 2 minutes tops? Your typical casual sit-down dinner is maybe 45 minutes to an hour? While people sit at bars with the same people and in close proximity for hours.
3) Volume - when people sing/yell/talk loudly, they're sending more droplets your way. Bars turn up the music to make it hard to talk so you drink more, but it also makes you talk a lot louder

I'd say another factor that in general increases your odds of infection at a bar vs. a dinner at a restaurant is WHO you interact with. Generally at a restaurant, you're at a table and you interact with the server and the people you came with - you don't come to socialize with other folks. At a bar at the lake, sure, some people are hanging with their own group, but a lot of people are going around and talking to other parties. More interactions = more opportunities for proximity, time, and volume.

Honestly I think phil wants nothing more than to hit his favorite KC restaurants and be the man about town, but I think he's right that most restaurants SHOULD be quite a bit less risky than your typical bar.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8127 on: July 01, 2020, 09:19:09 PM »
If you shutdown that part of the economy, welcome to the second great depression.

What would you call this already? So just eff em for the economy? Why aren't they required to put more precautions in place like we make the public facing sectors do without evidence of as any spreading events? Obviously you can't just shut down all factories and distribution

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8128 on: July 01, 2020, 09:20:51 PM »
Good points, Mich.

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8129 on: July 01, 2020, 09:32:56 PM »
If you shutdown that part of the economy, welcome to the second great depression.

What would you call this already? So just eff em for the economy? Why aren't they required to put more precautions in place like we make the public facing sectors do without evidence of as any spreading events? Obviously you can't just shut down all factories and distribution
We can't just put our head in the sand and wait for the vaccine. Manufacturing has implemented safety precautions. Hell, my vendors have done shutdowns to disinfect even with the additional spacing, masks, and shields between stations when a worker has tested positive.

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8130 on: July 01, 2020, 09:41:10 PM »
This will piss many of you off, but sinking our economy for a .5-1% death rate will cause greater harm than the virus, IMO. The virus is obviously real, but it seems like it’s weakening, because the news doesn’t want to talk about the death total and/or update us on asymptotic cases with athletes who’ve had it and feel fine. I appreciate the scare tactic to keep ppl locked up in their homes, but it doesn’t seem to be working.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8131 on: July 01, 2020, 09:42:52 PM »
If you shutdown that part of the economy, welcome to the second great depression.

What would you call this already? So just eff em for the economy? Why aren't they required to put more precautions in place like we make the public facing sectors do without evidence of as any spreading events? Obviously you can't just shut down all factories and distribution
We can't just put our head in the sand and wait for the vaccine. Manufacturing has implemented safety precautions. Hell, my vendors have done shutdowns to disinfect even with the additional spacing, masks, and shields between stations when a worker has tested positive.

Good.  Seems we need more of this mandated like we are mandating public facing operations.

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8132 on: July 01, 2020, 09:44:30 PM »
This will piss many of you off, but sinking our economy for a .5-1% death rate will cause greater harm than the virus, IMO. The virus is obviously real, but it seems like it’s weakening, because the news doesn’t want to talk about the death total and/or update us on asymptotic cases with athletes who’ve had it and feel fine. I appreciate the scare tactic to keep ppl locked up in their homes, but it doesn’t seem to be working.
As my friend noted, we've chosen our path. Let the fire burn.  https://twitter.com/stet_dot_net/status/1278483143553617930

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8133 on: July 01, 2020, 09:44:40 PM »
the government needs to give everyone more cash if they aren't going to do anything to slow the virus (other than put head in sand and wait for a vaccine).

I'd venture a guess that bar and restaurant spending was going down in TX and AZ before their governors shut them down again. most rational people don't want to get this and/or spread it to their loved ones.

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8134 on: July 01, 2020, 09:46:58 PM »
https://twitter.com/erinbiba/status/1278469732476297216

^also an argument for giving everyone cash

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8135 on: July 01, 2020, 09:47:49 PM »

Honestly I think phil wants nothing more than to hit his favorite KC restaurants and be the man about town, but I think he's right that most restaurants SHOULD be quite a bit less risky than your typical bar.

selfishly yes I'm it's a bit of confirmation bias but I just like to see data and evidence of what we are shutting down.  I continue to see bars, factories, distribution centers, senior living, and family living situations over and over again as examples.  So close down bars (sorry 22 year old Phil) but what I'm not seeing is spreading events at restaurants, gyms, entertainment centers, tubing (weird), etc. so it's odd to me these are the first to get restrictions.  Like I said maybe they have more data and the restrictions are well based in that data.  Just give us all that data.

It's still crazy that 80+ people get infected at a bar.  I mean what player is that guy to infect that many people!

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8136 on: July 01, 2020, 09:49:34 PM »
the government needs to give everyone more cash if they aren't going to do anything to slow the virus (other than put head in sand and wait for a vaccine).

I'd venture a guess that bar and restaurant spending was going down in TX and AZ before their governors shut them down again. most rational people don't want to get this and/or spread it to their loved ones.

Yup.  The path we are going requires more cash in hands.  At least what we've been giving to the unemployed.

Offline IPA4Me

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8137 on: July 01, 2020, 09:51:11 PM »
Droplets floating about in the airstream.

Do y'all remember that restaurant early in the pandemic where they demonstrated spread? Airstream pushed the droplets across the room.

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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8138 on: July 01, 2020, 09:53:24 PM »
This will piss many of you off, but sinking our economy for a .5-1% death rate will cause greater harm than the virus, IMO. The virus is obviously real, but it seems like it’s weakening, because the news doesn’t want to talk about the death total and/or update us on asymptotic cases with athletes who’ve had it and feel fine. I appreciate the scare tactic to keep ppl locked up in their homes, but it doesn’t seem to be working.

3MM people dropping dead iis going to sink the economy too.  This was discussed ad nauseam early April.  Evenso look around the world, we're the outlier here (in a bad way).

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8139 on: July 01, 2020, 09:55:16 PM »

Honestly I think phil wants nothing more than to hit his favorite KC restaurants and be the man about town, but I think he's right that most restaurants SHOULD be quite a bit less risky than your typical bar.

selfishly yes I'm it's a bit of confirmation bias but I just like to see data and evidence of what we are shutting down.  I continue to see bars, factories, distribution centers, senior living, and family living situations over and over again as examples.  So close down bars (sorry 22 year old Phil) but what I'm not seeing is spreading events at restaurants, gyms, entertainment centers, tubing (weird), etc. so it's odd to me these are the first to get restrictions.  Like I said maybe they have more data and the restrictions are well based in that data.  Just give us all that data.

It's still crazy that 80+ people get infected at a bar.  I mean what player is that guy to infect that many people!

I imagine contact tracing restaurants is pretty difficult. other than bars, the others you list are pretty easy to trace.

I think what it comes down to is: opening bars, gyms, and restaurants wide open leads to more infections. you don't need specific examples to see that's the case, it's apparent on a macro level. I think certain California counties are a good example: they had a fairly broad shutdown, loosened it to allow things like indoor dining, and those counties saw spikes and re-shut down.

that bar could have had multiple people sick, and assuming couples or roommates went, one could have spread to multiple.

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8140 on: July 01, 2020, 10:03:19 PM »

Honestly I think phil wants nothing more than to hit his favorite KC restaurants and be the man about town, but I think he's right that most restaurants SHOULD be quite a bit less risky than your typical bar.

selfishly yes I'm it's a bit of confirmation bias but I just like to see data and evidence of what we are shutting down.  I continue to see bars, factories, distribution centers, senior living, and family living situations over and over again as examples.  So close down bars (sorry 22 year old Phil) but what I'm not seeing is spreading events at restaurants, gyms, entertainment centers, tubing (weird), etc. so it's odd to me these are the first to get restrictions.  Like I said maybe they have more data and the restrictions are well based in that data.  Just give us all that data.

It's still crazy that 80+ people get infected at a bar.  I mean what player is that guy to infect that many people!
I think what it comes down to is: opening bars, gyms, and restaurants wide open leads to more infections. you don't need specific examples to see that's the case, it's apparent on a macro level. I think certain California counties are a good example: they had a fairly broad shutdown, loosened it to allow things like indoor dining, and those counties saw spikes and re-shut down.


Good point and these openings in most cases haven't even reached the "wide open" stage inside.

Offline kim carnes

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8141 on: July 01, 2020, 10:18:50 PM »
This will piss many of you off, but sinking our economy for a .5-1% death rate will cause greater harm than the virus, IMO. The virus is obviously real, but it seems like it’s weakening, because the news doesn’t want to talk about the death total and/or update us on asymptotic cases with athletes who’ve had it and feel fine. I appreciate the scare tactic to keep ppl locked up in their homes, but it doesn’t seem to be working.

3MM people dropping dead iis going to sink the economy too.  This was discussed ad nauseam early April.  Evenso look around the world, we're the outlier here (in a bad way).

it would actually be a huge boon for underfunded state pensions and social security.  not to mention it would help alleviate the massive housing shortages on the coasts.

Offline 8manpick

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8142 on: July 01, 2020, 10:29:54 PM »
Droplets floating about in the airstream.

Do y'all remember that restaurant early in the pandemic where they demonstrated spread? Airstream pushed the droplets across the room.

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Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8143 on: July 02, 2020, 12:10:53 AM »
yoyoing back and forth like this is crazy dumb.  we act like we've learned nothing since march.  good god but we're a stupid country.

https://twitter.com/ReporterJim/status/1277953704868675585
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Offline Dugout DickStone

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8144 on: July 02, 2020, 01:07:41 AM »
I'm certain I said it before but it's clear we are going to slug it out with this bug.  Wear masks, don't be a dick and never insist on shaking hands, treat everyone if they had it.  Stay distant, be cognizant of your behavior. 

Use handsan when you can and the only allowable orgies are in outdoor (lawn) spaces.  ahhh yeah

Offline 420seriouscat69

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8145 on: July 02, 2020, 07:50:56 AM »
The no shaking hands thing has been hard for me. I didn't realize how ingrained it's been in my everyday life. I feel rude now when meeting someone, but I know they appreciate it.

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8146 on: July 02, 2020, 08:31:05 AM »


yoyoing back and forth like this is crazy dumb.  we act like we've learned nothing since march.  good god but we're a stupid country.

https://twitter.com/ReporterJim/status/1277953704868675585

Not sure if you were referring to this in particular, but I heard some California counties were closing off parks and beaches. Idk seems like people can safely enjoy those even without particularly making an effort.

How "open" were the restaurants and bars that are now re-closing? Were they reopened at 50%?

I didn't verify this but looks like they were going from outdoor dining only to 25% capacity indoor dining.

https://twitter.com/achabbbs/status/1278310470114586631?s=19

Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8147 on: July 02, 2020, 08:57:34 AM »
yeah, i don't know anything about the specifics of that restaurant, just a convenient going off point.


i still think we should eradicate the virus, but i've given up on that since it's obvious that we can't even muster the willpower and societal cohesion to control it (also, the apparent rapid progress on vaccines does make just controlling it for a time a more attractive and viable option than i was thinking two months ago).

we have pretty decent ideas now on what contributes to spread and what doesn't.  just balance that against the societal benefits and make the call open or closed for the duration.  not yanking it around based on the perception of how prevalent the virus is in a given locale.

parks and beaches - open v. low risk.  bars and gyms, closed low benefit, high risk.  factories open medium risk, high benefit, etc.

this crap isn't that hard.  schools are a tough call, but find a mitigation strategy and stick with it.  jfc, america, get your crap together.
"experienced commanders will simply be smeared and will actually go to the meat."

Online steve dave

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8148 on: July 02, 2020, 09:13:29 AM »
I nominate sys for Covid in charge guy


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Online michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #8149 on: July 02, 2020, 09:23:31 AM »
this crap isn't that hard.  schools are a tough call, but find a mitigation strategy and stick with it.  jfc, america, get your crap together.

it's actually really hard when there's no federal guidance and governors end up being in charge of covid policy, but people can freely travel from states with lax responses to states with more aggressive responses.

it'll be interesting if anyone gets fined for not quarantining as some states are requiring.