Author Topic: CoronaBro Meltdown/SARS-Covid-19 Spitballing Thread  (Read 1589714 times)

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Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7725 on: June 18, 2020, 06:46:29 PM »
I want to see a chart with new cases, hospitalized, and deaths together. It obvious cases didn't go down nearly as severe as.deaths but I wonder if hospitalization follows the case or death trend more ?

How in the world do we not have every state doing enough tests by now? That was supposed to happen months ago according to trump. Months!

https://public.tableau.com/profile/peter.james.walker#!/vizhome/COVID-19SeeYourState/YourStateKeys

IMO we probably have enough tests most places, we just don't do enough for positive cases and contacts

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7726 on: June 18, 2020, 06:47:26 PM »
I want to see a chart with new cases, hospitalized, and deaths together. It obvious cases didn't go down nearly as severe as.deaths but I wonder if hospitalization follows the case or death trend more ?

How in the world do we not have every state doing enough tests by now? That was supposed to happen months ago according to trump. Months!
I wonder if lack of demand is driving it.


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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7727 on: June 18, 2020, 06:52:53 PM »
I want to see a chart with new cases, hospitalized, and deaths together. It obvious cases didn't go down nearly as severe as.deaths but I wonder if hospitalization follows the case or death trend more ?

How in the world do we not have every state doing enough tests by now? That was supposed to happen months ago according to trump. Months!
I wonder if lack of demand is driving it.

Then we should be moving to sentry testing but I'm no public health expert.

I mean as long as the states I'm around keep their positive test % down below 5 (3 would be better) I guess I'm pleased but seems we should be trying to mature our testing plan by now and sniff out where it maybe at like MC says with contacts specifically

Offline DQ12

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7728 on: June 18, 2020, 07:08:06 PM »
What’s sentry testing?


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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7729 on: June 18, 2020, 07:11:01 PM »
What’s sentry testing?

Like random testing of everybody to try and sniff it out not just relying on people to self select for testing

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7730 on: June 18, 2020, 07:16:31 PM »
I’d prefer not to take a test unless I think I have it, TBH. So I hope they don’t do sentry testing.


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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7731 on: June 18, 2020, 07:27:17 PM »
What’s sentry testing?

Like random testing of everybody to try and sniff it out not just relying on people to self select for testing

Do you mean surveillance?
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Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7732 on: June 18, 2020, 07:54:18 PM »
What’s sentry testing?

Like random testing of everybody to try and sniff it out not just relying on people to self select for testing

Do you mean surveillance?

I've heard it by that term as well, yes. Sentry just sounds super cool

Offline steve dave

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7733 on: June 18, 2020, 08:03:56 PM »
I’d for sure do Sentry if it helps people not die


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Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7734 on: June 18, 2020, 08:05:10 PM »
Fingers crossed that those getting sick now are a less vulnerable portion of the population. % postive has gone up about 1 percent i think.  Which isn't ideal, but not exactly catastrophic either (yet).

that seems unlikely (or perhaps it's better to say there's no reason to think that).  we're just testing a much higher % of people that want tests (and probably some % of people that don't). 
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7735 on: June 18, 2020, 08:07:22 PM »
What’s sentry testing?

Like random testing of everybody to try and sniff it out not just relying on people to self select for testing

non-random.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline Phil Titola

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7736 on: June 18, 2020, 09:55:10 PM »
What’s sentry testing?

Like random testing of everybody to try and sniff it out not just relying on people to self select for testing

non-random.

Don't make me stats 304 you

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7737 on: June 19, 2020, 09:21:10 AM »
Fingers crossed that those getting sick now are a less vulnerable portion of the population. % postive has gone up about 1 percent i think.  Which isn't ideal, but not exactly catastrophic either (yet).

that seems unlikely (or perhaps it's better to say there's no reason to think that).  we're just testing a much higher % of people that want tests (and probably some % of people that don't).
The only basis is that maybe now it's common knowledge that while everyone should remember to be careful, old and vulnerable people (and the people that are around them) need to be extra careful.


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Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7738 on: June 19, 2020, 09:40:20 AM »
The only basis is that maybe now it's common knowledge that while everyone should remember to be careful, old and vulnerable people (and the people that are around them) need to be extra careful.

that doesn't at all match the experience of people in my life or what i observe around me; i think it is very unlikely.  i could perhaps better believe that institutions (like retirement homes) have made improvements in who they allow on site and in isolation residents, but i've heard absolutely nothing about them doing so, so i also find that unlikely.

by far the most likely explanation for the different apparent demography of infected persons now compared to two months ago is that we are now testing more people with less severe cases.
"a garden city man wondered in april if the theologians had not made a mistake in locating the garden of eden in asia rather than in the arkansas river valley."

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7739 on: June 19, 2020, 09:42:07 AM »
https://twitter.com/paulkrugman/status/1273706244403068928

 :buh-bye:
Oh look, Paul “almost always wrong” Kaugman is being partisan. 

Offline sonofdaxjones

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Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7740 on: June 19, 2020, 09:43:13 AM »
Dax is already cringing over this rally.  He will bunker again
Look Pat Bateman, take my name off your keyboard.

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7741 on: June 19, 2020, 09:43:45 AM »
I just assume it's getting in all nursing homes. People pushing for the Sweden model are like "just protect the old people". Like how the eff do you do that?

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7742 on: June 19, 2020, 09:46:58 AM »
I just assume it's getting in all nursing homes. People pushing for the Sweden model are like "just protect the old people". Like how the eff do you do that?
Start by cancelling several governors?

Offline michigancat

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7743 on: June 19, 2020, 10:00:30 AM »

Offline DaBigTrain

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7745 on: June 19, 2020, 10:44:02 AM »
The only basis is that maybe now it's common knowledge that while everyone should remember to be careful, old and vulnerable people (and the people that are around them) need to be extra careful.

that doesn't at all match the experience of people in my life or what i observe around me; i think it is very unlikely.  i could perhaps better believe that institutions (like retirement homes) have made improvements in who they allow on site and in isolation residents, but i've heard absolutely nothing about them doing so, so i also find that unlikely.

by far the most likely explanation for the different apparent demography of infected persons now compared to two months ago is that we are now testing more people with less severe cases.
Yeah IDK -- I haven't been in a nursing home in about a year (since my grandma died  :frown: ).

My office full of relatively healthy adults is masking and temp. checking and stuff.  My nurse fiance can't get into the hospital without a temp check and they're taking extra mask precautions.  I would hope (and expect) nursing homes to be taking more precautions than they were back in early March, for example. 

I would hope anyone who works closely with old/vulnerable people to be mindful that the old/vulnerable person they work with has a disproportionate likelihood of dying if they're infected with covid.  Maybe that's naive or impossible to act upon.

You're right though, the testing selection is probably the dominant factor.

I just assume it's getting in all nursing homes. People pushing for the Sweden model are like "just protect the old people". Like how the eff do you do that?
Deciding not to send infectious people into nursing homes was a hell of a start, imo.
« Last Edit: June 19, 2020, 10:53:03 AM by DQ12 »


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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7746 on: June 19, 2020, 11:28:56 AM »
The only basis is that maybe now it's common knowledge that while everyone should remember to be careful, old and vulnerable people (and the people that are around them) need to be extra careful.

that doesn't at all match the experience of people in my life or what i observe around me; i think it is very unlikely.  i could perhaps better believe that institutions (like retirement homes) have made improvements in who they allow on site and in isolation residents, but i've heard absolutely nothing about them doing so, so i also find that unlikely.

by far the most likely explanation for the different apparent demography of infected persons now compared to two months ago is that we are now testing more people with less severe cases.
Yeah IDK -- I haven't been in a nursing home in about a year (since my grandma died  :frown: ).

My office full of relatively healthy adults is masking and temp. checking and stuff.  My nurse fiance can't get into the hospital without a temp check and they're taking extra mask precautions.  I would hope (and expect) nursing homes to be taking more precautions than they were back in early March, for example. 

I would hope anyone who works closely with old/vulnerable people to be mindful that the old/vulnerable person they work with has a disproportionate likelihood of dying if they're infected with covid.  Maybe that's naive or impossible to act upon.

You're right though, the testing selection is probably the dominant factor.

I just assume it's getting in all nursing homes. People pushing for the Sweden model are like "just protect the old people". Like how the eff do you do that?
Deciding not to send infectious people into nursing homes was a hell of a start, imo.

GRATS DQ!

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7747 on: June 19, 2020, 11:38:53 AM »
GRATS DQ!
decided it was time to leave some pelts for the rest of you


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Offline sys

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Re: Corona Bro/Corona Meltdown/Corona Model Guessers
« Reply #7748 on: June 19, 2020, 12:03:56 PM »
My nurse fiance can't get into the hospital without a temp check and they're taking extra mask precautions.  I would hope (and expect) nursing homes to be taking more precautions than they were back in early March, for example. 

I would hope anyone who works closely with old/vulnerable people to be mindful that the old/vulnerable person they work with has a disproportionate likelihood of dying if they're infected with covid.  Maybe that's naive or impossible to act upon.

i think hospitals (who, by and large have done a pretty good job of limiting transmission in their facilities) were already taking those precautions in april.  same with people caring for the elderly (and the elderly themselves).  my father, as an example of an old person, almost completely isolated himself in april.  he is still cautious, but is now going out to get coffee and going to the store himself again.  i think this is pretty typical.  it is hard to isolate yourself forever.

it seems to be very difficult to prevent the virus from getting into places where people live or work in high-density, transmission-friendly environments when the virus is circulating in the community at large.  i've heard of basically no examples of places that have done so.  places that have seemingly done better at preventing elderly people from becoming infected just have higher %s of old people that live alone.

it may be possible to better prevent the virus from getting into or spreading in retirement facilities, but i think it would require extraordinary steps (things like reducing resident density, daily surveillance testing of staff/residents, live in staff, etc.).  steps that are beyond just ordinary caution and would probably require government intervention and support.  if we were doing that on a wide scale, i think i would have seen it in the news and i haven't.
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