2020 presidential candidate 'crats

[michigancat]

Am I incorrect in assuming most of the Bernie supporters here will not be voting for Biden this fall?

If not, how many of you are going to vote Trump?  I think nationally this number will be pretty large.

Most people here live in states where it doesn't matter. I won't vote for Trump but won't vote for Joe, either. I'd vote for Joe if I lived in Ohio or Wisconsin.

I don't think there's a large number of Bernie voters that would vote Trump. At least I think it would be lower than the white suburbanite Biden voters going Trump if Bernie had won. Wasn't that the whole reason everyone supported Biden over Bernie? (I mean other than being wanting poor people to die. ;-))

[chum1]

In 2016, around 10% of Sanders primary voters voted for Trump.

[chum1]

I don't think the most vocal Sanders supporters are representative. I think like 80-90% of Sanders voters voted for Clinton, though I didn't see that in the quick search I just did.

[sys]

yeah, i think the overwhelming majority of sanders voters will vote for biden.  it'd be well onto the 2nd page of crap i'd worry about if i was biden.

[CHONGS]

Am I incorrect in assuming most of the Bernie supporters here will not be voting for Biden this fall?

If not, how many of you are going to vote Trump?  I think nationally this number will be pretty large.

Most people here live in states where it doesn't matter. I won't vote for Trump but won't vote for Joe, either. I'd vote for Joe if I lived in Ohio or Wisconsin.

I don't think there's a large number of Bernie voters that would vote Trump. At least I think it would be lower than the white suburbanite Biden voters going Trump if Bernie had won. Wasn't that the whole reason everyone supported Biden over Bernie? (I mean other than being wanting poor people to die. ;-))

I always perceived Bernie supporters as very similar to Trump supporters when it comes to the goal of burning down the system. Of course the Bernie guys want Bernie holding the torch rather than Trump, but in the end they want it burn none the less.

If there was ranked voting I would have guessed Bernie supporters have it:

Bernie
Trump
Independent
Any other Dem

While Biden supporters had it:

Biden
Dem other than Bernie
Independent
Trump
Bernie

I could be wrong though.

[chum1]

Here are some 2016 numbers.

Voted for Hillary Clinton: 74.3%
Voted for Donald Trump: 12.0
Voted for Jill Stein: 4.5
Voted for Gary Johnson: 3.2

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanders-was-helped-by-the-neverhillary-vote-what-does-that-mean-for-his-chances-now/

[steve dave]

Biden will do better than Hillary did with Burnie Bros


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[michigancat]

Am I incorrect in assuming most of the Bernie supporters here will not be voting for Biden this fall?

If not, how many of you are going to vote Trump?  I think nationally this number will be pretty large.

Most people here live in states where it doesn't matter. I won't vote for Trump but won't vote for Joe, either. I'd vote for Joe if I lived in Ohio or Wisconsin.

I don't think there's a large number of Bernie voters that would vote Trump. At least I think it would be lower than the white suburbanite Biden voters going Trump if Bernie had won. Wasn't that the whole reason everyone supported Biden over Bernie? (I mean other than being wanting poor people to die. ;-))

I always perceived Bernie supporters as very similar to Trump supporters when it comes to the goal of burning down the system. Of course the Bernie guys want Bernie holding the torch rather than Trump, but in the end they want it burn none the less.

If there was ranked voting I would have guessed Bernie supporters have it:

Bernie
Trump
Independent
Any other Dem

While Biden supporters had it:

Biden
Dem other than Bernie
Independent
Trump
Bernie

I could be wrong though.

A lot of that is very wrong. We don't have numbers on what Biden voters would do if Bernie won but I don't think it would have been significantly different from the Bernie voter behavior.

https://morningconsult.com/2020/04/08/as-bernie-sanders-drops-presidential-bid-most-supporters-ready-to-back-biden/

[Kat Kid]

The part I genuinely find hilarious is that when Bernie was the front runner all the arguments were about electability and how many moderates were going to stay away and that Bernie couldn’t win and how he needed to reach out to moderates. Then as soon as Bernie gets out in April!, on a dime everyone turns to “Bernie supporters suck crap and they will never vote for Biden because they are bad people”

Maybe not the best strategy!

[CHONGS]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

[michigancat]

Biden will do better than Hillary did with Burnie Bros


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I mean Biden already took a lot of Bernie voters back by not being Hillary

[star seed 7]

Clinton lost Missouri by 18 points. If Joe is within 5 for polling, I'll vote for him, otherwise it's probably going to be Tom again.

[sys]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

1. the fraction saying that is loud but small.
2. many of them will change their minds.

[michigancat]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

Are they telling you they'll vote for Trump? Because I voted for Bernie and will definitely not vote for Trump. Not sure how that skews your polling data

[michigancat]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

1. the fraction saying that is loud but small.
2. many of them will change their minds.

I haven't heard anyone say this even on Twitter

[CHONGS]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

1. the fraction saying that is loud but small.
2. many of them will change their minds.

1. Yes, but loud is very important these days and they are also actively trying to convince other people not to vote.

[mocat]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

1. the fraction saying that is loud but small.
2. many of them will change their minds.

I haven't heard anyone say this even on Twitter

you got receipts chings???

[Kat Kid]

The problem is Biden probably needs outreach to Bernie voters, loudly questioning whether Bernie voters are going to sabotage Biden is probably harmful to these efforts.  But all of the donut crap heads, Hillary staffers, DNC people, mainstream pundits all love the Bernie is going to eff up Joe, so it just becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy. You have Hillary herself arguing Bernie didn’t lift a finger to help her in the general which is just probably false, but the narrative is very helpful if the goal is finding excuses for why Trump best Hillary and has a decent chance to beat Joe.  It is a very bad narrative for Bernie voter outreach.

[ChiComCat]

Are there rumblings of VPs Biden is looking at?

Harris is the favorite with Klo waiting in the wings.  I've seen Duckworth mentioned as well as the Michigan Gov that Trump likes to go after.

This kind of surprises me, would have thought he'd go for a candidate that didn't run in the primary so people wouldn't have a potentially strong negative opinion of them. (Idk about Harris in particular maybe that's incorrect for her)

I think you're spot on with Harris.  It's just what reporters are writing, I don't think they necessarily have any knowledge.  We know it's a woman and I would imagine a young and energetic one would be helpful. 

[Kat Kid]

I think a governor leaving their state in the middle of a pandemic would be a dumb move politically. I think Harris is a likely pick and particularly because she dropped out so early doesn’t have a ton of negatives from the campaign, Abrams possible, but I don’t really know what his team is thinking. I really like the idea of nominating a whole shadow cabinet especially when you aren’t really going to be campaigning much in the traditional sense, but I think they will continue to mostly stay out of the way until the news changes because they don’t see much upside to Joe on camera with some pretty obvious and big downside risk.

[CHONGS]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

1. the fraction saying that is loud but small.
2. many of them will change their minds.

I haven't heard anyone say this even on Twitter

you got receipts chings???

https://twitter.com/hashtag/neverbiden

But I admit this is a lot of noise and likey artificially aided.  I guess I hope it's just initial disappointment and anger.

[ChiComCat]

I think a governor leaving their state in the middle of a pandemic would be a dumb move politically. I think Harris is a likely pick and particularly because she dropped out so early doesn’t have a ton of negatives from the campaign, Abrams possible, but I don’t really know what his team is thinking. I really like the idea of nominating a whole shadow cabinet especially when you aren’t really going to be campaigning much in the traditional sense, but I think they will continue to mostly stay out of the way until the news changes because they don’t see much upside to Joe on camera with some pretty obvious and big downside risk.

Agreed on the Michigan Gov.  We would have to feel like the virus was pretty well under control before she could start campaigning.

I think a lot of people got on Harris for harsh sentencing.  A Californian doesn't help and I think they will want to focus on the vulnerable states pretty heavily.  I think Harris is the favorite right now but I would still overwhelmingly take the field.  I like Abrams, but don't know how many southern states are in play regardless.  I probably put too much emphasis on the geography though.

[steve dave]

The main reason I say Bernie supporters aren't going to vote for Biden is because that's what they've been telling me.

1. the fraction saying that is loud but small.
2. many of them will change their minds.

I haven't heard anyone say this even on Twitter

you got receipts chings???

https://twitter.com/hashtag/neverbiden

But I admit this is a lot of noise and likey artificially aided.  I guess I hope it's just initial disappointment and anger.

Just a quick look and it’s all Russian troll/bots.





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[michigancat]

As bad (or botty) as those folks are, I still don't see anyone saying they'll vote for Trump? Chings is saying Bernie voters' second choice is Trump

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

Bernie voters see the Democrats and Democrat primary as rigged and completely unfair, which it is. They won't be voting for Biden as an establishment puppet for the DNC which screwed him AGAIN. It will be Trump, some protest vote, or won't vote at all.