Big 12 basketball

[Dr Rick Daris]

i think we can all agree that ben boyle is the fox news of kstate sports and that any hot sports take arguing that switching out multiple teams on your schedule for multiple teams not on your schedule and how it could somehow get your rpi into the forties is a stupid hot sports take. propaganda and dumb propaganda at that. oooooh la la. an rpi on the forties? well wouldn't we be fancy. 

[MakeItRain]

fwiw my comments about ben boyle's unsuccessful attempt to subdue himself were not related to scheduling, or ncaa tournament seeding. i was simply commenting on why TCU's rpi is so much better than ours.

Nah, he told you why. The current edition of the Eye on College Basketball podcast has exactly this as the topic Gary Parrish said RPI SOS is stupid, he never uses it and the committee shouldn't use it. He used the same argument that Ben Boyle did but he used two different teams.

[mocat]

fwiw my comments about ben boyle's unsuccessful attempt to subdue himself were not related to scheduling, or ncaa tournament seeding. i was simply commenting on why TCU's rpi is so much better than ours.

Nah, he told you why. The current edition of the Eye on College Basketball podcast has exactly this as the topic Gary Parrish said RPI SOS is stupid, he never uses it and the committee shouldn't use it. He used the same argument that Ben Boyle did but he used two different teams.

well ben boyle and ghost of tan parrish are wrong. if ksu swapped their 4 worst teams for 4 sub-100 teams, they'd have an almost identical resume (as far as RPI is concerned) as TCU

[Powercat Posse]

Yes, the schedule should be better. No dispute.

I'm also not saying TCU shouldn't be in the tournament right now, but I can't look at these criteria and see why TCU is an 8 and we're an 11.

They definitely should not be an 8, even before last night loss.    I think I was being generous saying they were my weakest #9 seed (overall seed #36).

Kstate is among the 6 teams i had between #37-42.  There isn't much difference between Tcu & any of those 6. 


 

[MakeItRain]

fwiw my comments about ben boyle's unsuccessful attempt to subdue himself were not related to scheduling, or ncaa tournament seeding. i was simply commenting on why TCU's rpi is so much better than ours.

Nah, he told you why. The current edition of the Eye on College Basketball podcast has exactly this as the topic Gary Parrish said RPI SOS is stupid, he never uses it and the committee shouldn't use it. He used the same argument that Ben Boyle did but he used two different teams.

well ben boyle and ghost of tan parrish are wrong. if ksu swapped their 4 worst teams for 4 sub-100 teams, they'd have an almost identical resume (as far as RPI is concerned) as TCU

So?

That doesn't make Boyle's and Parrish's point wrong and that's the point, the RPI SOS flaws the entire formula. When you schedule all of those games in the spring and summer none of them looks differently, they're all guarantee games, but the sos treats them differently. There is no way anyone can look at the schedules for this team and think their resumes should be 40 spots apart. I'd listen to an argument that says that KSU should be in the 60s but there's no way TCU should be in the mid 20s. It makes no sense.

[Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!)]

Gottlieb has repeatedly pointed out how stupid it is to value wins over rpi 150 teams substantially higher than wins over rpi 300 teams.

Ben Boyle is right and anyone against him is human fucktard. Wgaf whether you beat tenn tech or uc upstate

[BIG APPLE CAT]

Just curious your guys thoughts... At what RPI is a team no longer a guaranteed W? Like at what point is there a reasonable chance you'll lose if you aren't on your game? 105-120ish?

[sys]

there's no such thing as a guaranteed win and a 150 team is way more likely to beat you than a 300 team is.  the idea that they are equivalent is Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).

[hatingfrancisco]

there's no such thing as a guaranteed win and a 150 team is way more likely to beat you than a 300 team is.  the idea that they are equivalent is Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).

nope.  more like the difference between a 20 point win and a 30 point win. 

Sent from my SM-G928V using Tapatalk

[sys]

nope.  more like the difference between a 20 point win and a 30 point win. 

https://kenpom.com/box.php?g=2062&y=2015
https://kenpom.com/box.php?g=122&y=2014

[kso_FAN]

FWIW, I don't call them guarantee games because its a guarantee of a win, that's just what they are called now. They are "guarantee" one game deals with significant pay outs for these smaller schools and for many/most its how they fund their athletics departments.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/Pitt/2017/03/28/guarantee-games-college-football-schedule-2017/stories/201703280009

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/9/25/16361774/hbos-real-sports-guarantee-games-trailer-watch

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2015/3/11/8010641/get-rich-starting-a-college-basketball-team

Like I said, part of who you end up getting and whether or not they sneak into the Top 200 or 150 is random luck, but a lot of it is also how much you are willing to pay. To get a better school with a better program, you are often paying a higher guarantee, which is probably part of why we ended up with so many 200+ teams. And again, every Big 12 team (and every P5 conference team) has at least 5 of these and many have 7.

[mocat]

fwiw my comments about ben boyle's unsuccessful attempt to subdue himself were not related to scheduling, or ncaa tournament seeding. i was simply commenting on why TCU's rpi is so much better than ours.

Nah, he told you why. The current edition of the Eye on College Basketball podcast has exactly this as the topic Gary Parrish said RPI SOS is stupid, he never uses it and the committee shouldn't use it. He used the same argument that Ben Boyle did but he used two different teams.

well ben boyle and ghost of tan parrish are wrong. if ksu swapped their 4 worst teams for 4 sub-100 teams, they'd have an almost identical resume (as far as RPI is concerned) as TCU

So?

That doesn't make Boyle's and Parrish's point wrong and that's the point, the RPI SOS flaws the entire formula. When you schedule all of those games in the spring and summer none of them looks differently, they're all guarantee games, but the sos treats them differently. There is no way anyone can look at the schedules for this team and think their resumes should be 40 spots apart. I'd listen to an argument that says that KSU should be in the 60s but there's no way TCU should be in the mid 20s. It makes no sense.

as i said before i am not talking about scheduling, and of course TCU is benefiting from some of their preseason "pud" opponents turning out to be top 100.

all i'm saying is ben boyle's tweet focusing on the bottom of each team's schedule is stupid, when he is ignoring the glaring difference (top 100 opponents). whether you think that's worth 30-40 spots in the ranking is debatable, but that's the difference. it's not the bottom 4 or 5 teams.

[Cartierfor3]

There was clearly an agenda to stockpile wins at the expense of SOS when this schedule was created. Any K-State fan or coach or school rep shouldn't make ex-bruces for it hurting KSU's RPI. Its not some stroke of bad luck the OOC SOS is a trash sandwich with fries.

[BIG APPLE CAT]

FWIW, I don't call them guarantee games because its a guarantee of a win, that's just what they are called now. They are "guarantee" one game deals with significant pay outs for these smaller schools and for many/most its how they fund their athletics departments.

http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/Pitt/2017/03/28/guarantee-games-college-football-schedule-2017/stories/201703280009

https://www.midmajormadness.com/2017/9/25/16361774/hbos-real-sports-guarantee-games-trailer-watch

https://www.sbnation.com/college-basketball/2015/3/11/8010641/get-rich-starting-a-college-basketball-team

Like I said, part of who you end up getting and whether or not they sneak into the Top 200 or 150 is random luck, but a lot of it is also how much you are willing to pay. To get a better school with a better program, you are often paying a higher guarantee, which is probably part of why we ended up with so many 200+ teams. And again, every Big 12 team (and every P5 conference team) has at least 5 of these and many have 7.

Ok but I'm still asking what is the threshold? Obviously I understand the caveat that nothing is "guaranteed" and that anything can happen in any given night, but if your chance of beating an RPI 250 team is 99.7% and your chance of beating an RPI 175 team is 99.1%... At what point does that percentage drop to like 75 or 80%?

[kso_FAN]

I think the Tier win system the NCAA is using this year correlates well to what you are talking about. Tier 3 games are home games vs RPI 76-160, road games vs RPI 136-240, or neutral vs RPI 101-200. Most P5 teams have zero or one Tier 3 losses in 5-7 games.

[kso_FAN]

https://twitter.com/JimMWeber/status/963841606884511747

[kso_FAN]

Nebraska guy doubles down on Boyle's idea!

http://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs/chatelain/mad-chatter-why-tim-miles-rpi-problem-is-a-hoax/article_1224d3c6-11a7-11e8-86b9-c3eba667942d.html

[michigancat]

https://twitter.com/JimMWeber/status/963841606884511747

I'm right there w/ ESPN. I'd rather watch Trae Young 24/7 than most of the CBB trash out there

[mocat]

Nebraska guy doubles down on Boyle's idea!

http://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs/chatelain/mad-chatter-why-tim-miles-rpi-problem-is-a-hoax/article_1224d3c6-11a7-11e8-86b9-c3eba667942d.html

3 (three!) top 100 wins 

[catastrophe]

I recently went to an implicit bias training at work.  One of the things they talked about was how people will often try to fit everything someone else does to fit their preconceived narrative of that person.  That definitely happens a lot in sports when a team/player starts out hot at the beginning of the season and then tapers back to average later on.  With Young though, isn't he still on track to break all kinds of records?

[kso_FAN]

Nebraska guy doubles down on Boyle's idea!

http://www.omaha.com/huskers/blogs/chatelain/mad-chatter-why-tim-miles-rpi-problem-is-a-hoax/article_1224d3c6-11a7-11e8-86b9-c3eba667942d.html

3 (three!) top 100 wins 

“We’ve had some losses that look worse than they are and some wins that don’t look as good as they are,” Miles said. “I didn’t think that we scheduled softly. …”

It is pretty amazing that a P5 conference team after 15 conference games has only played 6 of those games against top 100 teams.

[wetwillie]

The only scenario that exists in which I hope we get a tourney bid would be to bump Nebraska off the bubble.

[meow meow]

The only scenario that exists in which I hope we get a tourney bid would be to bump Nebraska off the bubble.

Nebraska's 0-fer the tourney is a record i want to stand forever

[MakeItRain]

there's no such thing as a guaranteed win and a 150 team is way more likely to beat you than a 300 team is.  the idea that they are equivalent is Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!).

Actually teams 151-351 have a strikingly similar profile, they're almost all teams from one bid conferences who aren't competitors for that one bid. Of those 200 teams, only 14 of them are from multi bid leagues and of those 14, 7 of them are from the 2 bid WCC. The gap is way smaller between 151-351 than it is from 100-150 and it really isn't debatable.

[nicname]

I get that you're never really sure how good your opponents will be from year to year, but that's all the more reason to schedule up.  What would be the harm in playing home and homes with mid to upper level P5 teams each year?  I'm not talking a game or two i'm talking about playing 5-6 decent p5 teams each year in addition to those we might play in an early tourney.  And why would you ever schedule a 200+ team for shits sake?  What is there to gain?

I just don't think there are enough teams out there that want to do that because no one in college basketball schedules like that. I can't think of any P5 opponent playing more than 1 or 2 home and homes with other P5 teams. Everyone plays guarantee games.

The reason these are scheduled is to get home games on the cheap. Every team in the Big 12 has 5-7 of these games every season.

KU does it like every year. Granted, a decent amount of those games are in classics.