Author Topic: Better or not? (Read 20134 times)

kso_FAN · « **on:** October 09, 2016, 09:50:10 PM »

Ultimately, that's the question. Per play stats have their flaws, but the numbers are still solid, pretty easy to compute, and readily comparable to past K-State teams. Also, not quite halfway gives us a very limited set of data, plus we must consider strength of opponents. IMO, playing 3 solid opponents with 2 on the road still makes a comparison pretty valid.

Clearly the defense is much better and comparable to the better defenses we've seen at K-State during Snyder 2.0 and the current state of the Big 12. Besides being much better in points and yards than last year's train wreck that didn't even register as one of Snyder's Top 20 defenses, the most significant difference is this team is turning opponents over at an impressive clip. If that continues, even if points/yards numbers drop a bit, we will win some more games.

Offensively the reliance on Ertz to this point seems largely based on the fact that this offense rarely turns the ball over. This has been a key emphasis of the Dimel/Miller system during Synder 2.0 and I'm sure that's a large factor in the QB decision, especially since we're relying on a new QB. Also, the points/yards numbers are better than what we saw last year, but still far below what we consider when comparing to the better offenses we've seen from Snyder coached teams.

Still, its clear that this team is better in nearly every way to this point compared to last year. The offense must continue to improve and to get to 7 or 8 wins probably needs to continue with solid TO% numbers while moving up closer to .45 points per play. We'll see if Ertz and company can do that.

Fake Sugar Dick (WARNING, NOT THE REAL SUGAR DICK!) · « **Reply #1 on:** October 09, 2016, 10:06:16 PM »

I think the as the o-line and ertz continue to get game reps they'll improve tremendously. We'll be really good by year end.

everyone shut up · « **Reply #2 on:** October 09, 2016, 10:25:54 PM »

2015 was terrible

MakeItRain · « **Reply #3 on:** October 09, 2016, 10:59:35 PM »

I think this season, offensively, should be compared to 2011 and 2013; the numbers of both of those seasons are quite surprising. I have no idea how the 2011 team won so much because they don't seem to stack up very well offensively or defensively. It is amazing that the 2013 offense was so productive given how much they turned the ball over, god bless Tyler Lockett and John Hubert. Anyway I like how this team compares to those teams and what that means for the future.

EMAWzifried · « **Reply #4 on:** October 09, 2016, 11:23:20 PM »

The 2011 team was the one Snyder team that could truly said didn't hurt itself with penalties.

WildcatPower · « **Reply #5 on:** October 09, 2016, 11:53:57 PM »

I like to think this is much better (athletically as well?) team than last year, and consider that other than Jones (acceptable), Burton (meh), Ash (who I believe was replaced by Beecham), and Johnson (average) are the only guys on offense that are seniors. Other than that, everyone else is a bunch of sophomores. I know Ertz is a JR, but I believe he was granted a medical RS if I am not mistaken, so technically he is a sophomore. So there is some growing pains, but there is huge dividends for 2017 and 2018 for the offense.

As for defense, Willis (stud), Will Davis (ugh), Moore (solid), Starks (decent), and Barnett (stud). Other than those guys, it's a mixture of juniors and sophomores with some very promising freshmen. I think for the near future, I would expect us to contend for the Big XII title.

DQ12 · « **Reply #6 on:** October 10, 2016, 12:03:20 AM »

good stuff _fan. those TO% numbers are nice to see. a couple things that jump out:

i can't believe how low our offensive ypp was in 2011. seemed like a pretty efficient offense at the time. if i can theorize for a moment, maybe it's because we didn't have very many "explosive" plays (20+ yards), so we were consistently operating at a ~3-5 yards per clip. Add in the low TO% and that's how you end up with a fairly respectable points per play. i'd bet our 3rd down percentage was relatively high for an offense with such a low ypp.

I'll be interested to see how our defensive numbers normalize out over the next few weeks. i think our d matches up pretty well with OU's and Baylor's offenses (two of the more run oriented offenses, by big 12 standards).

I find it incredibly hard to believe that this is a top 10 snyder ypp offense. likely a product of facing 2.5 of the worst defenses we'll face all season in Tech/FAU/0.5 of Mo State. Assuming that's the case, and our YPP steadily declines over the course of the season, we're going to need that TO% clip to stay low. .013 is probably unrealistic, but it's going to have to stay low nonetheless.

all in all, it looks about like we'd expect, i think. just about the best defense we've had in Snyder II and one of the worse offenses we've had in that same era. i think we're considerably better than last year, obviously on defense, but offensively too, especially re. turnovers.

Trim · « **Reply #7 on:** October 10, 2016, 12:40:01 AM »

By wins? 2015.

POWL · « **Reply #8 on:** October 10, 2016, 08:23:51 AM »

our young offensive line should have been given the game ball Saturday.......they played great as a unit.......my only concern is that it largely a function of crappy tech D

PurpleOil · « **Reply #9 on:** October 10, 2016, 08:45:33 AM »

I don't think that there is any doubt that we're a better team than last year, but looking at our schedule, we could very easily still end up with the same record.

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #10 on:** October 10, 2016, 08:54:17 AM »

Quote from: PurpleOil on October 10, 2016, 08:45:33 AM

I don't think that there is any doubt that we're a better team than last year, but looking at our schedule, we could very easily still end up with the same record.

If we don't end up with a better record, this isn't a better team.

ChiComCat · « **Reply #11 on:** October 10, 2016, 08:58:46 AM »

Quote from: PurpleOil on October 10, 2016, 08:45:33 AM

I don't think that there is any doubt that we're a better team than last year, but looking at our schedule, we could very easily still end up with the same record.

I would've agreed with you before the season but every Big 12 game is winnable.

michigancat · « **Reply #12 on:** October 10, 2016, 08:59:27 AM »

Quote from: MakeItRain on October 09, 2016, 10:59:35 PM

I think this season, offensively, should be compared to 2011 and 2013; the numbers of both of those seasons are quite surprising. I have no idea how the 2011 team won so much because they don't seem to stack up very well offensively or defensively. It is amazing that the 2013 offense was so productive given how much they turned the ball over, god bless Tyler Lockett and John Hubert. Anyway I like how this team compares to those teams and what that means for the future.

2011 was a ridiculously lucky season.

Rage Against the McKee · « **Reply #13 on:** October 10, 2016, 09:04:50 AM »

Quote from: ChiCat on October 10, 2016, 08:58:46 AM

Quote from: PurpleOil on October 10, 2016, 08:45:33 AM
I don't think that there is any doubt that we're a better team than last year, but looking at our schedule, we could very easily still end up with the same record.

I would've agreed with you before the season but every Big 12 game is winnable.

Yes. We've learned that Stanford actually isn't very good. Last year, TCU, Baylor, and OU were very good, each legitimately top 15 teams. This year, Baylor is the only Big 12 team we face that might be in that category, and they've looked shaky at times. The schedule is just easier this year. Winning less than 7 games would be a huge disappointment.

cfbandyman · « **Reply #14 on:** October 10, 2016, 09:15:53 AM »

The offense needs to continue to improve. The defense is real and as shown in the 2nd half of TT able to adjust and shut down a potent offense. There were encouraging signs in the first half offensively, and I was impressed we didn't call a TO until late in the half. The offense though has got to be more effective passing, and passing smarter. Was impressed we gave up 0 sacks to TT and the o-line which while still not the best, definitely is coming around.

catastrophe · « **Reply #15 on:** October 10, 2016, 09:19:51 AM »

Um, of course we're better. Does goal for success #4 not ring a bell? Keep sawing wood! #catscatscats

Panjandrum · « **Reply #16 on:** October 10, 2016, 10:20:50 AM »

Quote from: Dlew12 on October 10, 2016, 12:03:20 AM

I'll be interested to see how our defensive numbers normalize out over the next few weeks. i think our d matches up pretty well with OU's and Baylor's offenses (two of the more run oriented offenses, by big 12 standards).

I find it incredibly hard to believe that this is a top 10 snyder ypp offense. likely a product of facing 2.5 of the worst defenses we'll face all season in Tech/FAU/0.5 of Mo State. Assuming that's the case, and our YPP steadily declines over the course of the season, we're going to need that TO% clip to stay low. .013 is probably unrealistic, but it's going to have to stay low nonetheless.

I think it's inevitable that the defensive numbers will get "worse" because everyone seems to have adopted the air raid. However, as you mention, I think Baylor is a notch less explosive (maybe Grobe's influence?), and TCU and Tech are almost mirror images of each other, but Hill is a performance grade level below Mahomes. Some of those balls that Mahomes was able to get into those windows, Kenny Hill won't.

Overall, I think the collective "we" assumes that there will be a lot of movement towards historical mean, but I think after OU, it's kind of downhill in terms of the quality we'll see. WVU and Tech were the worst matchups due to the QB and WR quality and, as you pointed out on Twitter, our propensity to allow completed passes.

Offensively, we're probably going to be able to keep plodding along due to how atrocious all of the Big 12 defenses are. S&P+ ratings listed:

Oklahoma: 66
Texas: 97
Iowa State: 104
Oklahoma State: 75
Baylor: 22
Kansas: 106
TCU: 67

I guess my overall point is that the defense may still look good because I agree we match up well with other teams, but the offense will look deceptively average due to how bad the defenses are in this conference.

FWIW, S&P+ has us with the #13 defense in the country so far. And, just because I always track it, Clemson is #3.

pvegs · « **Reply #17 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:02:54 PM »

Glad we've shown so much statistical improvement this season. Makes all these losses easier to handle.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #18 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:06:35 PM »

I'm not done with this team. We've lost to the 2 best teams on the road. Still plenty of football left with a decent defense to give is a chance.

steve dave · « **Reply #19 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:09:19 PM »

Better or worse than last year when we sucked? WGAF

steve dave · « **Reply #20 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:10:34 PM »

Does it matter if we finish 8th or 6th? Other than whatever garbage bowl we would go to that nobody watches? It kinda does I guess. Kinda.

ednksu · « **Reply #21 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:12:17 PM »

Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on October 15, 2016, 02:06:35 PM

I'm not done with this team. We've lost to the 2 best teams on the road. Still plenty of football left with a decent defense to give is a chance.

People should be done with this entire coaching staff.

everyone shut up · « **Reply #22 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:14:12 PM »

Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on October 15, 2016, 02:06:35 PM

I'm not done with this team. We've lost to the 2 best teams on the road. Still plenty of football left with a decent defense to give is a chance.

i love your unwavering support of the cats. You're a great fan. Gives me a glimmer of hope.

kso_FAN · « **Reply #23 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:15:15 PM »

Quote from: steve dave on October 15, 2016, 02:10:34 PM

Does it matter if we finish 8th or 6th? Other than whatever garbage bowl we would go to that nobody watches? It kinda does I guess. Kinda.

It matters to me.

MakeItRain · « **Reply #24 on:** October 15, 2016, 02:36:47 PM »

Quote from: royals&ksu_FAN on October 15, 2016, 02:15:15 PM

Quote from: steve dave on October 15, 2016, 02:10:34 PM
Does it matter if we finish 8th or 6th? Other than whatever garbage bowl we would go to that nobody watches? It kinda does I guess. Kinda.

It matters to me.

I'm definitely still in and I won't quit but if I were given a choice of 5-7 and a new staff or 7-6 with the same staff for 2017, I'm taking that 5-7 and running like Forrest Gump.