Marco Rubio Master Thread

[star seed 7]

well the font, lowercase name, and america i dotting pretty much made him my (#official) 1a next to #bern

To be fair, all of the logo designs this year are atrocious. So that's a wash.

I am serious

[Rage Against the McKee]

Most of the logo designs are pretty good, really.

[Yard Dog]

I am not sure it has been discussed on ge yet, so I wanted to bring it up here. Trump is polling at ~35%. So, supposedly he is "way out in front" but if a lot of the extra candidates started falling out, their support would start to funnel elsewhere. It is my belief it would go nowhere near Trump or Carson. That in mind, by the time Iowa comes around let's say we are down to 6 candidates. Will Trump's lead be anywhere near as big? Isn't it plausible that his numbers will stay stagnant ( they haven't ever really grown beyond where they are now) and his competitors will catch up?

I don't see it happening too soon because everyone still thinks they will win for some reason. (who is still whispering in Graham's ear that he has a chance?)  But if Bush drops out you have to believe that his supporters and money go to Rubio. If that is the case, I don't see how he wouldn't rocket up to a solid second in the mid twenties. Then, you'll start seeing other candidates falter and that could continue.

[star seed 7]

The gop is already leaking they are going to announce romney/paul again at the convention

[CNS]

Bob dole plans to sleep in late on election day if trump or Cruz or anyone other than jeb is the guy.  That may be a common condition.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

I am not sure it has been discussed on ge yet, so I wanted to bring it up here. Trump is polling at ~35%. So, supposedly he is "way out in front" but if a lot of the extra candidates started falling out, their support would start to funnel elsewhere. It is my belief it would go nowhere near Trump or Carson. That in mind, by the time Iowa comes around let's say we are down to 6 candidates. Will Trump's lead be anywhere near as big? Isn't it plausible that his numbers will stay stagnant ( they haven't ever really grown beyond where they are now) and his competitors will catch up?

I don't see it happening too soon because everyone still thinks they will win for some reason. (who is still whispering in Graham's ear that he has a chance?)  But if Bush drops out you have to believe that his supporters and money go to Rubio. If that is the case, I don't see how he wouldn't rocket up to a solid second in the mid twenties. Then, you'll start seeing other candidates falter and that could continue.

It's coming down to Trump versus Rubio/Cruz. Even if all the other candidates fold, and most will, and even if all of their supporters go to Cruz/Rubio, and most will, Trump can remain competitive as long as Rubio and Cruz are splitting the rest of the vote and delegates.

What should concern all conservatives is not Trump himself, but Trump's supporters. I don't think Trump will go third party, but I do think there are a lot of people supporting Trump because they are furious at the Republican party's general ineptitude and betrayal on key issues like immigration. Many of these people will stay home on election day, which could very well lead to another Romney-style defeat - even to a candidate as lousy as Hillary Clinton.

Cruz is in a far better position to bring those disaffected conservatives back into the fold. Rubio will have far more appeal to independents. Which is more important? After seeing what happened to Romney in 2012, I gotta say that rallying the base and bringing in Rust Belt blue collar traditional Dems may be more important than chasing "Independents." Cruz might actually be the stronger general election candidate.

[sys]

it's hard for me to imagine that rubio and cruz supporters see them as interchangeable.

[CNS]

it's hard for me to imagine that rubio and cruz supporters see them as interchangeable.

Yeah, there's no way.

[Cire]

Rubio is as crazy as Cruz.  He's just polished.


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[star seed 7]

Cruz is well spoken trump, same voting base

[chum1]

Why is Ben Carson being ignored here!?

15-day
 average 
 Trump 37%  35%  42%  35%  37.6%  41%  27%  27%  36%  36%  27%  37%  37%  37%  28%  34.60% 
 Cruz 11%  13%  16%  16%  7.6%  7%  17%  13%  10%  16%  16%  11%  12%  11%  14%  12.96% 
 Carson 13%  8%  9%  13%  13.1%  12%  10%  15%  17%  14%  16%  9%  15%  10%  18%  12.74% 
 Rubio 12%  18%  11%  9%  12%  10%  16%  14%  7%  12%  17%  10%  14%  15%  14%  12.55%

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Why is Ben Carson being ignored here!?

15-day
 average 
 Trump 37%  35%  42%  35%  37.6%  41%  27%  27%  36%  36%  27%  37%  37%  37%  28%  34.60% 
 Cruz 11%  13%  16%  16%  7.6%  7%  17%  13%  10%  16%  16%  11%  12%  11%  14%  12.96% 
 Carson 13%  8%  9%  13%  13.1%  12%  10%  15%  17%  14%  16%  9%  15%  10%  18%  12.74% 
 Rubio 12%  18%  11%  9%  12%  10%  16%  14%  7%  12%  17%  10%  14%  15%  14%  12.55%

He's being ignored because he doesn't have a path to victory. He's also fading in the polls.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Cruz is well spoken trump, same voting base

Not exactly the same voting base, but close. Like I said, Cruz is the candidate best positioned to get Trump's supporters to the polls.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

it's hard for me to imagine that rubio and cruz supporters see them as interchangeable.

I didn't say they were interchangeable, but they're close enough that the vast majority of one's supporters will ultimately fall in line and vote for the other on election day. I'm concerned that's not the case for many Trump supporters.

[renocat]

He gets the renocat vote.

[chuckjames]

So basically Marco just admitted he is the Iowa State of the GOP field.

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/676051471717302272

[Cire]

Dork


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[renocat]

A new cnn and nbc poll shows rubio beating MG, not trump.  My dream is beating hillary.

[MakeItRain]

So basically Marco just admitted he is the Iowa State of the GOP field.

https://twitter.com/ajjaffe/status/676051471717302272

Interesting tactic to court the Iowa vote.

He's got no chance to win in Iowa and he knows it, he's right second place here would be very good. Iowa is a weird place because it's moderate politically but guys far right do well. It's odd because Iowa also isn't at all evangelical. Bear in mind psycho Rick Santorum A.K.A 2012 Ted Cruz won Iowa during the last caucus.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Iowa is a ridiculous state and it makes absolutely no sense for them to have the first primary or for the candidates/media to attach so much importance to it. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado should go first. But I guess that only matters if you want the primary process to pick the most conservative candidate who can actually win.

[chuckjames]

Iowa is a ridiculous state and it makes absolutely no sense for them to have the first primary or for the candidates/media to attach so much importance to it. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, and Colorado should go first. But I guess that only matters if you want the primary process to pick the most conservative candidate who can actually win.

Oh hey we actually agree on something. I don't really care about picking the candidate but Iowa given this much political power is extremely annoying. :shrugs:

[chum1]

Carson still hanging right with the top candidates.

15-day
 average 
 Trump 41%  38%  27%  37%  35%  42%  35%  37.6%  41%  27%  27%  36%  36%  27%  37%  35.35% 
 Cruz 14%  14%  22%  11%  13%  16%  16%  7.6%  7%  17%  13%  10%  16%  16%  11%  13.58% 
 Rubio 10%  10%  15%  12%  18%  11%  9%  12%  10%  16%  14%  7%  12%  17%  10%  12.00% 
 Carson 9%  11%  11%  13%  8%  9%  13%  13.1%  12%  10%  15%  17%  14%  16%  9%  11.93%

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Carson still hanging right with the top candidates.

15-day
 average 
 Trump 41%  38%  27%  37%  35%  42%  35%  37.6%  41%  27%  27%  36%  36%  27%  37%  35.35% 
 Cruz 14%  14%  22%  11%  13%  16%  16%  7.6%  7%  17%  13%  10%  16%  16%  11%  13.58% 
 Rubio 10%  10%  15%  12%  18%  11%  9%  12%  10%  16%  14%  7%  12%  17%  10%  12.00% 
 Carson 9%  11%  11%  13%  8%  9%  13%  13.1%  12%  10%  15%  17%  14%  16%  9%  11.93%

Those polls don't matter. The primary is like a basketball tournament with different regions. He doesn't have a path to victory. Trump is monopolizing the "eff you GOP" region. Cruz is getting a slice of that region plus the social conservative region. Rubio is locking in the establishment region (which Carson was never going to compete in anyway).

If Carson can somehow take first or second in Iowa, he can make a case for continuing his campaign, but I think he finishes third at this point behind Trump and Cruz.

[star seed 7]

How big of an bad person do you have to be to think trump isn't socially conservative enough for you? 

[sys]

chum1, are the newest data on the left or right?