The Trump Candidacy

[wetwillie]

Vancouver is really nice you guys. Not many true Canadians there also. True melting pot.

You couldn't afford it

[sonofdaxjones]

I just want Hillary to visit more Southern African American churches.    Love that shtick.

[john "teach me how to" dougie]

A fascinating sub-plot is the closet trump supporters passively attempt to make him sound good.

Well conservatives are pragmatic and will vote for whoever the republican nominee is. Liberals however march lockstep and force everyone to vote the democrat nominee and also straight line vote for democrats (republicans don't do that tho)

what!  Several pub states, like Kansas, are pushing to bring back party line voting buttons/boxes solely to do this.

[catastrophe]

Vancouver is really nice you guys. Not many true Canadians there also. True melting pot.

You couldn't afford it

Probably wouldn't pay it at least. They're working on their own little real estate bubble up there.

[sys]

there is much more to the trump phenomenon than just racism and xenophobia.  but racism and xenophobia are important to his candidacy.  all candidates have to build coalitions of voters motivated by different issues.

[DQ12]

there is much more to the trump phenomenon than just racism and xenophobia. but racism and xenophobia are important to his candidacy.  all candidates have to build coalitions of voters motivated by different issues.

I would add desperation and anger and a perception of macroeconomic business expertise.  I can't think of anything else that would factor into it.

[chuckjames]

there is much more to the trump phenomenon than just racism and xenophobia. but racism and xenophobia are important to his candidacy.  all candidates have to build coalitions of voters motivated by different issues.

I would add desperation and anger and a perception of macroeconomic business expertise.  I can't think of anything else that would factor into it.

I think admiration too. At least from a certain portion of guys. Alot of guys want to live his life. Which I don't think you can say about Romney, even tho they are both successful businessmen.

[wetwillie]

Rage against the McKee's article hit the four segments pretty well.  I agree with sys that it is more nuanced than previously suggested ITT.   I would have gone for Bush originally, align with kasich more currently, but of Rubio, Cruz, Trump I find Trump most palatable.  Cruz is far too fundamental for my tastes and Rubio has quickly become a larger buffoon than trump with his Schtick.   

[catastrophe]

Poor, angry, dumbasses who want to make noise. Does that hit all the segments in the article?

[Institutional Control]

Rumor going around among my conservative friends is that Romney is going to run as an independent.  Supposed to announce it tomorrow.

[chum1]

Rumor going around among my conservative friends is that Romney is going to run as an independent.  Supposed to announce it tomorrow.

That's the split. There it is.

[Rage Against the McKee]

Rumor going around among my conservative friends is that Romney is going to run as an independent.  Supposed to announce it tomorrow.

That would be great.

[DQ12]

Rumor going around among my conservative friends is that Romney is going to run as an independent.  Supposed to announce it tomorrow.

That's the split. There it is.

I wonder if Bernie would consider running independent if Romney does.  I doubt it, but from a game theory perspective, it might makes sense.

[Dub]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

[chuckjames]

Rumor going around among my conservative friends is that Romney is going to run as an independent.  Supposed to announce it tomorrow.

That's the split. There it is.

I wonder if Bernie would consider running independent if Romney does.  I doubt it, but from a game theory perspective, it might makes sense.

Explain the Game Theory benefits to Bernie?

[Rage Against the McKee]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

Not if he thinks Hillary would be a better president than Donald.

[Dub]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

Not if he thinks Hillary would be a better president than Donald.

Hilary will already beat Donald, so why would he destroy the Republican party in the process?

[DQ12]

Rumor going around among my conservative friends is that Romney is going to run as an independent.  Supposed to announce it tomorrow.

That's the split. There it is.

I wonder if Bernie would consider running independent if Romney does.  I doubt it, but from a game theory perspective, it might makes sense.

Explain the Game Theory benefits to Bernie?

If the republican vote is split he has a chance at winning the general with a split democrat vote.

[chuckjames]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

I think part of the GOP doesn't want Trump to win the presidency Bc then the conservatives and establishment lose their party to facist nationalists for at least 4 if not an entire generation.

[DQ12]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

Not if he thinks Hillary would be a better president than Donald.

Hilary will already beat Donald, so why would he destroy the Republican party in the process?

Hilary might lose to Donald.

[mocat]

Rumor going around among my conservative friends is that Romney is going to run as an independent.  Supposed to announce it tomorrow.

That's the split. There it is.

I wonder if Bernie would consider running independent if Romney does.  I doubt it, but from a game theory perspective, it might makes sense.

Explain the Game Theory benefits to Bernie?

If the republican vote is split he has a chance at winning the general with a split democrat vote.

that would be wild. minnesota wild! 

[Dub]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

Not if he thinks Hillary would be a better president than Donald.

Hilary will already beat Donald, so why would he destroy the Republican party in the process?

Hilary might lose to Donald.

I don't think this is remotely possible.

[chuckjames]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

Not if he thinks Hillary would be a better president than Donald.

Hilary will already beat Donald, so why would he destroy the Republican party in the process?

Hilary might lose to Donald.

I don't think this is remotely possible.

I think it's 65-70% chance Hillary would win. But a black swan event could happen like in 2008 and blow it up.

[DQ12]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

Not if he thinks Hillary would be a better president than Donald.

Hilary will already beat Donald, so why would he destroy the Republican party in the process?

Hilary might lose to Donald.

I don't think this is remotely possible.

I don't know how likely it is, but if the last year has shown anything, it's that saying "People will come to their senses on Trump" is generally wrong.

[K-S-U-Wildcats!]

Wouldn't that be a terrible idea?  Basically split the Republican party in half and ensure a win for Hilary?

Not if he thinks Hillary would be a better president than Donald.

Hilary will already beat Donald, so why would he destroy the Republican party in the process?

Hilary might lose to Donald.

I don't think this is remotely possible.

It is very possible. In fact, I'd say it's better than 50% regardless of what the national polls may say. Trump will hold most red states based on anti-Hillary sentiment alone, and stands a decent chance of winning a number of purple rust belt states based on heavy white defections from the Dem base. Dem turnout in the primaries is WAY down. GOP turnout is way up. And Hillary is a dreadful candidate.