How big a deal is a bad year?

[j rake]

oscar picked a great year to have a good team (2012-13, when the b12 was historically awful); and a terrible year to have a mediocre team (2014-15, when the big 12 is historically great).

[Cartierfor3]

oscar picked a great year to have a good team (2012-13, when the b12 was historically awful); and a terrible year to have a mediocre team (2014-15, when the big 12 is historically great).

I will bet you a dollar not 1 of these teams makes the final four

[Cartierfor3]

Rick Barnes had an 18 loss year in 12-13 (included loss in the CBI)

[Rage Against the McKee]

Rick Barnes had an 18 loss year in 12-13 (included loss in the CBI)

I like Rick, but if I were a Texas fan, I'd want somebody else.

[CHONGS]

as you know, the answer to your question is that "how big of a deal" is different in every situation.
i think one of the biggest determinants in understanding how recoverable the program is, is what players are coming in to fix the problems that the current team is experiencing.  i really think this team is a serviceable PG and a big man away having what most would have considered an acceptable season.  PG in the b12 is tough and i don't think it's fair to expect a freshman to lead a team out of a 19 loss season.  we will need to find a juco.  DJamer will be back, hurt will have another year under him.  we will be better next year, no doubt.

our non-con schedule is going to be easier next season too.

All good points.

It is indeed context dependent. We will be better next year no doubt about it.  But will it be better as in the program is healthier, or "better" as in we put a coat of new paint on rotted wood?  I don't know. My fear is that we are treating the symptom rather than the disease.  But then again I am coping with this season by being extremely pessimistic.

[CHONGS]

Scott Drew lost 21 and 19 games his 1st two years but that's a pretty extreme circumstance.

yeah I think he gets a pass for that as a rebuilding job

[kso_FAN]

It is indeed context dependent. We will be better next year no doubt about it.  But will it be better as in the program is healthier, or "better" as in we put a coat of new paint on rotted wood?  I don't know. My fear is that we are treating the symptom rather than the disease.  But then again I am coping with this season by being extremely pessimistic.

I've had the same coping method, this is as negative as I've been since "Turn Out the Lights".

oscar and the direction of the program has been awful this year. The excuses, mismanagement of the players, losing to bad teams, huge margin losses, and a terrible slow style that is hard to watch are just a few reasons. This season compared to expectations going in has been a disaster.

But I also tend to agree with Rusty that we aren't likely to make a better hire at this point. oscar bought himself another year with 2 good years to start his tenure here, his players or not. I don't think at a school like K-State firing a coach 2 years removed from a title sends a good message, besides the apprehensions of Currie making the hire. Its also very likely we'll be much better next year and perhaps an NCAA tournament team, even if that's hard to see right now.

The problem becomes being pessimistic and predicting the future. It seems likely we will become an every other year NCAA program, flipping between 7-10 seeds and NIT appearances with below .500 seasons mixed in. oscar isn't bad enough to put together a stretch like Wooly did, but its hard to say he'll ever get back to conference titles and Sweet 16s. However, its tough to fire someone based on stuff that hasn't happened yet. I fully expect oscar to back next year and it could be tough, but I also have no doubt next season will be better. Its how much better next year and beyond will be combined with the problems I've seen this year that makes having a positive outlook tough.

[j rake]

I fully expect oscar to back next year and it could be tough, but I also have no doubt next season will be better. Its how much better next year and beyond will be combined with the problems I've seen this year that makes having a positive outlook tough.

on paper, which big 12 team(s) is k-state definitely better than next year?

[Rage Against the McKee]

I think we will do better against the crappy teams next year but worse against the good teams. Overall, that's a worse season.

[ksupamplemousse]

I fully expect oscar to back next year and it could be tough, but I also have no doubt next season will be better. Its how much better next year and beyond will be combined with the problems I've seen this year that makes having a positive outlook tough.

on paper, which big 12 team(s) is k-state definitely better than next year?

Tech...maybe...probably.

[kso_FAN]

I fully expect oscar to back next year and it could be tough, but I also have no doubt next season will be better. Its how much better next year and beyond will be combined with the problems I've seen this year that makes having a positive outlook tough.

on paper, which big 12 team(s) is k-state definitely better than next year?

I don't know, I'm sure Illinois said the same thing.

If Foster is back, I think we can be a middle of the Big 12 team. We'll be counting on Brown/Wade coming in and being decent players. Improvement from guys like Jevon, Westicles, Edwards, Harris(s), Hurt.

Its not impossible.

[CHONGS]

oscar bought himself another year with 2 good years to start his tenure here, his players or not.

I think oscar has had 1.5 good years. This year is in many ways a continuation of last season. I know the narrative is that "something" changed with Foster in the off-season, but we started sliding downhill last season once conference season started (.500 in the last 20 games last year).

[kso_FAN]

oscar bought himself another year with 2 good years to start his tenure here, his players or not.

I think oscar has had 1.5 good years. This year is in many ways a continuation of last season. I know the narrative is that "something" changed with Foster in the off-season, but we started sliding downhill last season once conference season started (.500 in the last 20 games last year).

Good point, the end of last year wasn't good. He still beat a Sweet 16 team in march and we made the tournament easily, so he gets the benefit of that.

[Mixed-Nutz]

oscar bought himself another year with 2 good years to start his tenure here, his players or not.

I think oscar has had 1.5 good years. This year is in many ways a continuation of last season. I know the narrative is that "something" changed with Foster in the off-season, but we started sliding downhill last season once conference season started (.500 in the last 20 games last year).

Last years team was very consistent, schedule got harder and the team lost to better teams. Think you could say this year discredits last year because it was suppose to be something to build off of. Didn't do that.

[j rake]

I don't know, I'm sure Illinois said the same thing.

If Foster is back, I think we can be a middle of the Big 12 team. We'll be counting on Brown/Wade coming in and being decent players. Improvement from guys like Jevon, Westicles, Edwards, Harris(s), Hurt.

Its not impossible.

i would say k-state is likely to be the eighth or ninth best team in the league next year talent wise, and going forward, my guess is that k-state will rarely be a top 5 most talented team. but to finish in the top half of the league, and to finish 10-8 or better in league play, they don't have to be in future seasons.

if k-state is a top 50 team in the country next year, as opposed to a fringe top 100 team like present, they'll be favored in every home game except kansas. they'll always have a very good chance of finishing 6-3 at home and the potential to finish 7-2. that obviously means they'll have to find a way to steal three or four road games every year - which is doable.

k-state's equalizer is its home court, which ranks top 3 in the league. not only has oscar only lost four big 12 games at home in three seasons, he's exceeded expectations in 16 of 25 of them (covering the spread is an objective measure of expectations).

it's clear that oscar's teams reach their motivational ceiling fairly consistently at home. if he can ever figure out how to get players to perform with the same intensity on the road, this program has a chance to hold its own in a league where they'll rarely have a talent advantage.

[sys]

if you want to fire a coach, it's pretty damn useful.

[Trim]

k-state's equalizer is its home court, which ranks top 3 in the league. not only has oscar only lost four big 12 games at home in three seasons, he's exceeded expectations in 16 of 25 of them (covering the spread is an objective measure of expectations).

it's clear that oscar's teams reach their motivational ceiling fairly consistently at home. if he can ever figure out how to get players to perform with the same intensity on the road, this program has a chance to hold its own in a league where they'll rarely have a talent advantage.

Are you presuming the HCA will stay as is through the program's decline?

[ChiComCat]

My question is how do we get back to competitive asap:

1) Trying to bring a new coach - knowing it maybe hard after firing oscar 2 years removed from conference title?
2) Giving oscar another year knowing that the program maybe in worse shape for the next guy, but we don't have the stigma of being impatient?

A number of things have to improve for us to be legitimately good next season but the biggest would be for Foster to stay and be on the same page as the coach.  At this point, I would genuinely surprised if he stayed.

[j rake]

k-state's equalizer is its home court, which ranks top 3 in the league. not only has oscar only lost four big 12 games at home in three seasons, he's exceeded expectations in 16 of 25 of them (covering the spread is an objective measure of expectations).

it's clear that oscar's teams reach their motivational ceiling fairly consistently at home. if he can ever figure out how to get players to perform with the same intensity on the road, this program has a chance to hold its own in a league where they'll rarely have a talent advantage.

Are you presuming the HCA will stay as is through the program's decline?

if the fan base cares about k-state basketball, then i don't see why they wouldn't continue to support the team through an occasional down year, or even a string of them. my god, it's manhattan, kansas. what else is there to do once or twice a week during the winter?

seth child cinemas? a nice leisurely stroll down poyntz avenue? dinner at harry's?

the sense of entitlement is and always has been hilarious to me. this is a competitive sport and k-state is competing at the highest of levels. again, this year's big 12 is rated the fourth-toughest conference in the last 15 years. every school is trying to hire the best coaches, every school is trying to build better facilities, every school is trying to recruit at the highest level nationally. and k-state, because of its geography, is always going to be at a competitive disadvantage.

winning is hard.

[Trim]

k-state's equalizer is its home court, which ranks top 3 in the league. not only has oscar only lost four big 12 games at home in three seasons, he's exceeded expectations in 16 of 25 of them (covering the spread is an objective measure of expectations).

it's clear that oscar's teams reach their motivational ceiling fairly consistently at home. if he can ever figure out how to get players to perform with the same intensity on the road, this program has a chance to hold its own in a league where they'll rarely have a talent advantage.

Are you presuming the HCA will stay as is through the program's decline?

if the fan base cares about k-state basketball, then i don't see why they wouldn't continue to support the team through an occasional down year, or even a string of them. my god, it's manhattan, kansas. what else is there to do once or twice a week during the winter?

seth child cinemas? a nice leisurely stroll down poyntz avenue? dinner at harry's?

the sense of entitlement is and always has been hilarious to me. this is a competitive sport and k-state is competing at the highest of levels. again, this year's big 12 is rated the fourth-toughest conference in the last 15 years. every school is trying to hire the best coaches, every school is trying to build better facilities, every school is trying to recruit at the highest level nationally. and k-state, because of its geography, is always going to be at a competitive disadvantage.

winning is hard.

What was our HCA like through Asbury and Wooly?

[MakeItRain]

as you know, the answer to your question is that "how big of a deal" is different in every situation.
i think one of the biggest determinants in understanding how recoverable the program is, is what players are coming in to fix the problems that the current team is experiencing.  i really think this team is a serviceable PG and a big man away having what most would have considered an acceptable season.  PG in the b12 is tough and i don't think it's fair to expect a freshman to lead a team out of a 19 loss season.  we will need to find a juco.  DJamer will be back, hurt will have another year under him.  we will be better next year, no doubt.

our non-con schedule is going to be easier next season too.

These are all good points, although I'm not confident we will be better next year. Our record will certainly be better. I see DJamer mentioned quite a bit and I don't know what people expect of him but I would judge him a success if he averaged 6 and 6. He was 3 and 3 last season and I think there is reason to believe that he won't ever fully recover from his injury. The fact that he couldn't play this season is troubling to me.

[ChiComCat]

I liked the consistency that DJamer brought.  He would rebound and pretty consistently finish around the rim.  He isn't going to add a lot of range or do anything unusual but rebounds and layups are plenty.

[kso_FAN]

if the fan base cares about k-state basketball, then i don't see why they wouldn't continue to support the team through an occasional down year, or even a string of them. my god, it's manhattan, kansas. what else is there to do once or twice a week during the winter?

seth child cinemas? a nice leisurely stroll down poyntz avenue? dinner at harry's?

the sense of entitlement is and always has been hilarious to me. this is a competitive sport and k-state is competing at the highest of levels. again, this year's big 12 is rated the fourth-toughest conference in the last 15 years. every school is trying to hire the best coaches, every school is trying to build better facilities, every school is trying to recruit at the highest level nationally. and k-state, because of its geography, is always going to be at a competitive disadvantage.

winning is hard.

Good points. I agree that often the sense of entitlement is pretty ridiculous, but that's across the board for college sports.

[Rage Against the McKee]

if the fan base cares about k-state basketball, then i don't see why they wouldn't continue to support the team through an occasional down year, or even a string of them. my god, it's manhattan, kansas. what else is there to do once or twice a week during the winter?

seth child cinemas? a nice leisurely stroll down poyntz avenue? dinner at harry's?

the sense of entitlement is and always has been hilarious to me. this is a competitive sport and k-state is competing at the highest of levels. again, this year's big 12 is rated the fourth-toughest conference in the last 15 years. every school is trying to hire the best coaches, every school is trying to build better facilities, every school is trying to recruit at the highest level nationally. and k-state, because of its geography, is always going to be at a competitive disadvantage.

winning is hard.

Good points. I agree that often the sense of entitlement is pretty ridiculous, but that's across the board for college sports.

It's not a sense of entitlement. It's wanting to compete for titles and win games. That is what competition is all about.

[j rake]

What was our HCA like through Asbury and Wooly?

i was only around for the final wooly season, and it was terrible.

i'm not a k-state fan, don't know the history, don't care about the history, and don't have a strong understanding (clearly!) of the fan base. but i've observed that a certain level of pride in k-state hoops has been restored in recent years, and it seems to me that many fans have an interest in maintaining the momentum that has been built over the last decade.

as usual, fans will threaten to stay at home if the team stinks, which would be fine if the school was located in miami or san diego or somewhere else competing for your hard-earned entertainment dollars. but k-state is located in manhattan, quite possibly the most boring place on earth, but nonetheless a town that cares about the local university. there's no excuse for the level of fan apathy that was seen during the asbury and wooly years...and it would be a shame if the same occurs in the future.