How big a deal is a bad year?

[CHONGS]

I honestly don't know.  I was thinking yesterday: if KSU gets to 19 losses, is this something that can be shrugged off as a bad year, you know every coach has them, kind of deal? Or is this a damning enough symptom in and of itself?  Can you count on a bounce back?  A small bounce back is very likely guaranteed, but how many good/great coaches have ever even had a 19 loss season?  I honestly don't think very many have. Perhaps a few in the first few years of a massive rebuild, but a 19 loss season three years into a tenure (and 10+ years after starting DI coaching)?

Can anyone out there think of good/great coaches that have had a 19 loss season?

[CNS]

Bad years are fine.  Years below .500 arent, imo.  Bad yr's happen and have to be expected every once in a while

[kso_FAN]

Huggins had a 19 loss season two years ago.

Jay Wright lost 19 games in 2012.

Mike Brey went 15-17 last year.

Roy Williams had 17 losses in 2010. (16-16 regular season)

Billy Donovan is 13-14 this year.

So yeah.

[CHONGS]

There bad and there is "bad".

I could be wrong, I would just like to collect a list of good to great coaches with a 19 loss mark in their resume.

[kso_FAN]

Also, oscar has never missed the NCAA tournament 2 years in a row going back to 00-01 when he was at SIU. He has a knack for following up his bad years with decent seasons.

[CHONGS]

Huggins had a 19 loss season two years ago.

Jay Wright lost 19 games in 2012.

Mike Brey went 15-17 last year.

Roy Williams had 17 losses in 2010. (16-16 regular season)

Billy Donovan is 13-14 this year.

So yeah.

See here we go.  17 is not 19 though, I want to be a bit of a stickler with 19. 

[CHONGS]

Here is a list (I will update as they are added):

Bob Huggins        [2012-13] (13-19)
Jay Wright          [2011-12] (13-19)

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

Huggins had a 19 loss season two years ago.

Jay Wright lost 19 games in 2012.

Mike Brey went 15-17 last year.

Roy Williams had 17 losses in 2010. (16-16 regular season)

Billy Donovan is 13-14 this year.

So yeah.

all of those coaches have made the elite 8 with the schools they are at now except brey who has made the sweet 16. 2 have national championships.

they have earned a bad season. oscar has not.

[michigancat]

You should look at win % instead of number of losses. The number of games played really went up when they opened up the preseason tournaments

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

those are some of the longest tenured coaches in the nation. its not a fair comparison, really. you cant fire those guys.

[michigancat]

Huggins had a 19 loss season two years ago.

Jay Wright lost 19 games in 2012.

Mike Brey went 15-17 last year.

Roy Williams had 17 losses in 2010. (16-16 regular season)

Billy Donovan is 13-14 this year.

So yeah.

all of those coaches have made the elite 8 with the schools they are at now except brey who has made the sweet 16. 2 have national championships.

they have earned a bad season. oscar has not.

I think a conference title is at least as valuable as an Elite Eight.

[CHONGS]

You should look at win % instead of number of losses. The number of games played really went up when they opened up the preseason tournaments

I know, I though about that.  Win % is not the best either because you usually get some lay-up teams in the first few rounds of these thing (if you are a good team).   I mean 19 losses isn't any better probably, but I like a nice firm number psychologically.

[CHONGS]

Huggins had a 19 loss season two years ago.

Jay Wright lost 19 games in 2012.

Mike Brey went 15-17 last year.

Roy Williams had 17 losses in 2010. (16-16 regular season)

Billy Donovan is 13-14 this year.

So yeah.

all of those coaches have made the elite 8 with the schools they are at now except brey who has made the sweet 16. 2 have national championships.

they have earned a bad season. oscar has not.

I think a conference title is at least as valuable as an Elite Eight.

On one hand: it's harder to get to the Elite Eight
On the other: a conference title is probably a better indicator of a consistently good season

[kso_FAN]

I don't think it's harder to make an Elite 8. Recent K-State history certainly doesn't support this.

[CHONGS]

I don't think it's harder to make an Elite 8. Recent K-State history certainly doesn't support this.

Does it? 

[Rage Against the McKee]

I don't think it's harder to make an Elite 8. Recent K-State history certainly doesn't support this.

It just depends on the season. If you are in a conference where there are no legitimate top 10 teams, then a conference championship is much easier. That is why KU wins the Big 12 every year but makes it to the Elite 8 much less often.

[kso_FAN]

36 years between conference titles. We went to 3 Elite 8s during that time. Obviously both are tough for us.

[CHONGS]

Of the seven major conference champs(American, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC), how many make the Elite Eight each year?

but thats not a good measure, perhaps better is:

% of schools with a conference champ vs % of schools that have reached the Elite Eight.

I could be quite wrong, but I think living in B12 country has skewed our perceptions (maye even I am over compensating for it).

[SEK_EMAW]

Huggins had a 19 loss season two years ago.

Jay Wright lost 19 games in 2012.

Mike Brey went 15-17 last year.

Roy Williams had 17 losses in 2010. (16-16 regular season)

Billy Donovan is 13-14 this year.

So yeah.

None of those guys had recently been fired for being bad at their job. 

[michigancat]

Three favorable matchups can get double digit seeds elite eights fairly easily. A conference title is a much better indicator of program strength.

[The Tonya Harding of Twitter Users Creep]

its not a question of which is tougher or means more, its a matter of those coaches have earned the right to have a bad season and oscar has not.

the difference between oscar having a bad season and those coaches having a bad season is what they have done for the school to earn it. i dont think a big 12 title with someone elses players is enough to say hes earned the right to a bad season.

[Cartierfor3]

Scott Drew lost 21 and 19 games his 1st two years but that's a pretty extreme circumstance.

[kso_FAN]

Of the seven major conference champs(American, ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, and SEC), how many make the Elite Eight each year?

but thats not a good measure, perhaps better is:

% of schools with a conference champ vs % of schools that have reached the Elite Eight.

I could be quite wrong, but I think living in B12 country has skewed our perceptions (maye even I am over compensating for it).

Perhaps.

Over the last 20 years...

School    Conf Champ   Elite 8
Kentucky   9   11
UNC   8   10
Uconn   8   9
Kansas   16   8
Mich State   6   8
Arizona   6   7
Duke   8   6
Louisville   4   6
Florida   6   6
UCLA   4   5
Syracuse   4   4

[pissclams]

as you know, the answer to your question is that "how big of a deal" is different in every situation.
i think one of the biggest determinants in understanding how recoverable the program is, is what players are coming in to fix the problems that the current team is experiencing.  i really think this team is a serviceable PG and a big man away having what most would have considered an acceptable season.  PG in the b12 is tough and i don't think it's fair to expect a freshman to lead a team out of a 19 loss season.  we will need to find a juco.  DJamer will be back, hurt will have another year under him.  we will be better next year, no doubt.

our non-con schedule is going to be easier next season too.

[Trim]

Conference 'ship is probably a greater demonstration of consistently good generally, but in our conference 'ship year, 20% of teams in our conference won them.

When _FAN first pointed out recent KSU history would indicate a 'ship is harder, I initially agreed because my instant memory was that we've had an elite 8 more recently than a 'ship.