Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[ArchE_Cat]

The Dude

Expansion Update: Big 10 Targets ACC

10 Dec, 2012

It’s becoming more and more difficult to write about conference realignment.  The Big 10’s raid of the Big East and the ACC and the subsequent countermove of the ACC’s addition of Louisville set in motion events that are harder and harder to track.

It was easy to get details when the Big 12 was the only conference on the hunt, not so easy when the Big 10 entered the scene, and damn difficult when you introduce the competing interests of the Big 10, Big 12 and SEC.  Now take that difficulty level and multiply by the number of ACC teams positioning to get out of dodge with the biggest paycheck possible.

What’s certain? What’s probable? What’s unlikely? What’s the buzz?

Here’s what I’m certain about after talking to three separate Big 10 sources. The Big 10 will not stop at 14 and 16 may just be a rest stop on the way to 18; and maybe more

I’m also certain that the Big 10’s endgame is Notre Dame.

The Big 10’s addition of Maryland and Rutgers may have been, at least on the surface, mysterious and explainable only by the value added to the Big 10 Network.  Yet a look at the Big 10’s markets and a quick comparison of Notre Dame’s top television markets (in terms of ratings & estimation of fans) shows a justification of Delaney’s strategy.

    New York
    Chicago
    Boston
    South Bend
    Philadelphia
    Los Angeles
    Washington
    Indianapolis
    St. Louis
     Detroit

With the addition of Maryland and Rutgers the Big 10 has Notre Dame’s important markets covered with the exception of Boston and Los Angeles.

The Los Angeles market is out of reach for the Big 10 but the Boston TV market is not.

Sources within the Big 10 and Boston College have confirmed the Big 10 has approached Boston College and BC believes it is next in line for Big 10 expansion.

Boston College is eager to leave the ACC and many within the ACC tell me that BC’s departure would almost be welcome–except they don’t consider the appeal of Boston College to Notre Dame.

If the Eagles leave the ACC the Big 10 would have 9 of the 10 top markets for Notre Dame included in the Big 10 network with 2 of those markets coming at the expense of the ACC.

Georgia Tech would also add to the Big 10’s appeal to Notre Dame and detract from the ACC’s.

Certainly the Big 10’s motivations for expansion include adding inventory to the Big 10 Network and an everyday presence is the rich recruiting grounds of the south, but it appears the primary motivating factor is the gut the ACC and make the Big 10 the only viable option for Notre Dame.

Doubting the Big 10 would go to such lengths to acquire Notre Dame – what the Big 10’s television deals would be worth with Notre Dame as full member.

Now comes the part that Big 12 fans will not want to hear.

If the Big 10 expands to 16 and plans to add Notre Dame they would have 17 members.

They won’t stop at 17. The Big 10 has targeted FSU as #18.

Sources within the Big 10 tell me that Jim Delaney and Eric Barron have had discussions about the Seminoles joining the Big 10.

Obviously FSU doesn’t fit the academic profile of the Big 10.  Obviously Louisville didn’t fit the academic profile of the ACC either. It simply doesn’t matter.

FSU would add valuable TV territory and more importantly add a southern presence for the Big 10 and Notre Dame for recruiting purposes.

Last summer FSU told the Big 12 it would not consider membership without a southern partner.  Georgia Tech provides FSU the southern partner it would require in the Big 10.

Clearly FSU prefers the Big 10 to the Big 12. The lure of the additional money of the Big 10 Network gives the Big 10 a natural advantage and the academic reputation of the Big 10 would sooth FSU’s faculty over leaving the ACC.

Sources at Ohio State tell me the Big 10 plans to move  shortly after the Orange Bowl by adding Boston College.  Delany believes the ACC will be forced to counter with the addition of UCONN and it’s the Huskies that will give Eric Barron and FSU the excuse they need to move.

Barron will claim the ACC is no longer a viable home for FSU football and he will be right.

Louisville is a good program but they lack the tradition or the track-record to elevate ACC football. The Cardinals have one of the best athletic departments in the country and should be admired, but they do not have the stature to save the conference.

Pitt and Syracuse have struggled to compete in the Big East and their administrations have shown a lack of commitment to football.

And what happens to ACC football when their only choice is to add UCONN?

What happens is that FSU and GT leave for the ACC and–as much as I loathe to write it–UNC and Duke leave for the SEC.

We can expect the Big 10 to act shortly after the Orange Bowl.

Tomorrow I’ll write what this means to the Big 12 and West Virginia.

first of all  @ the dude

secondly, who cares if we end up in the MWC if all that actually happens. no one in those markets knows what good college football is, the big 10 is piggybacking off of cable channels like food network at that point

[Panjandrum]

The Dude is destroying the narrative.

It's not even fun anymore.  It's just moved from speculative entertainment to completely asinine and completely unbelievable.

["storm"nut]

The Dude is destroying the narrative.

It's not even fun anymore.  It's just moved from speculative entertainment to completely asinine and completely unbelievable.

This, he went from being someone that seem to have a finger on what was going on, although did not even fact check anything and started making stuff up, to being a random BBSer.

[Dr Rick Daris]

The Dude is destroying the narrative.

It's not even fun anymore.  It's just moved from speculative entertainment to completely asinine and completely unbelievable.

This, he went from being someone that seem to have a finger on what was going on, although did not even fact check anything and started making stuff up, to being a random BBSer.

back in confy realignment heyday, i always thought that we should have pete get on twitter and start doing pete stuff and just making stuff up and then we'd all retweet and facebook and just see if we couldn't make our own little dudeofwv but maybe peteofksu or something.

[chum1]

I think we should add Colorado State and New Mexico.  Now, before you start going bonkers, hear my theory on these two states.  Colorado is the new California and New Mexico is the new Colorado.  See?  Pretty good, huh?

["storm"nut]

The Dude is destroying the narrative.

It's not even fun anymore.  It's just moved from speculative entertainment to completely asinine and completely unbelievable.

This, he went from being someone that seem to have a finger on what was going on, although did not even fact check anything and started making stuff up, to being a random BBSer.

back in confy realignment heyday, i always thought that we should have pete get on twitter and start doing pete stuff and just making stuff up and then we'd all retweet and facebook and just see if we couldn't make our own little dudeofwv but maybe peteofksu or something.

The Peter!!! damn that would have been fun.

[EllRobersonisInnocent]

I think we should add Colorado State and New Mexico.  Now, before you start going bonkers, hear my theory on these two states.  Colorado is the new California and New Mexico is the new Colorado.  See?  Pretty good, huh?

Roadies to Ft Collins would be fun   

[Pete]

The Dude is destroying the narrative.

It's not even fun anymore.  It's just moved from speculative entertainment to completely asinine and completely unbelievable.

This, he went from being someone that seem to have a finger on what was going on, although did not even fact check anything and started making stuff up, to being a random BBSer.

back in confy realignment heyday, i always thought that we should have pete get on twitter and start doing pete stuff and just making stuff up and then we'd all retweet and facebook and just see if we couldn't make our own little dudeofwv but maybe peteofksu or something.

The Peter!!! damn that would have been fun.

Jesus, so much of my life is about these missed opportunities. 

[Super PurpleCat]

It's never too late.

[MadCat]

[scottwildcat]

At one point I wanted to vomit every day reading this thread, now every time I read the new posts I wanna stab my eyes

[chum1]

I think we should add Colorado State and New Mexico.  Now, before you start going bonkers, hear my theory on these two states.  Colorado is the new California and New Mexico is the new Colorado.  See?  Pretty good, huh?

Roadies to Ft Collins would be fun   

FoCo is the best.  Love it.

[Panjandrum]

The Dude is destroying the narrative.

It's not even fun anymore.  It's just moved from speculative entertainment to completely asinine and completely unbelievable.

This, he went from being someone that seem to have a finger on what was going on, although did not even fact check anything and started making stuff up, to being a random BBSer.

back in confy realignment heyday, i always thought that we should have pete get on twitter and start doing pete stuff and just making stuff up and then we'd all retweet and facebook and just see if we couldn't make our own little dudeofwv but maybe peteofksu or something.

The Peter!!! damn that would have been fun.

Jesus, so much of my life is about these missed opportunities.

I'm on board if Pete does this.

[CyberToothCat]

I liked this thread better when it was full of despair and loathing about our certain doom of a future in Conference USA or Mountain West.

Don't worry, there is still plenty of opportunity for angst for us.  Just like it always has been, the Big 12 is completely at the mercy of Texas.  As long as Texas remains, the Big 12 can survive.  The minute Texas leaves, the Big 12 is dead.  Texas mouthpiece Chip Brown wrote last week that everyone else in the conference wants to expand, but Texas is still against it.  So... do we risk Texas' ire by forcing expansion down their throats?  Or do we stand pat at 10 and hope that our tiny population base and lack of conf champ game doesn't hurt us in the long run? And what happens when our GOR is getting close to expiring?

One thing that really bugs me is that the Big 12 is the lone major conference (yes, the ACC still exists, but I scoff at the ACC) without a conference network.  The Big Ten obviously has the BTN.  The PAC has their new series of networks.  The SEC is preparing to launch theirs in a couple years.  And the Big 12 is busy sitting on our thumbs.  Delaney and Slive are smart businessmen; I'd like to think that Bowlsby and Dodds are as well.  But what do the people in those other conferences know that we don't?  Why is Delaney willing to bring in a pair of duds in Rutgers/Maryland, while the Big 12 is hesitant about the idea of FSU/Clem?  It's like the Big 12 is betting that TV is going to become a la carte and those conf networks will become money losers, while every other conference is betting the exact opposite.

[Panjandrum]

We'll be fine.  In two or three years, after the "Big 4" are pulling down over $40 million a year in TV/Bowls/NCAA tourney money, etc., and the ACC is getting payouts in the low $20s, you'll start hearing the drums beat more loudly.

Right now the divide isn't that big.  In a few years?  It's going to be too big to ignore.  The ACC presidents may not want to move, but FSU boosters are going to be really, really chapped if UF is pulling down tens of millions more than they are every year.  They're having a hard enough time keeping up as is.  And even if it's not them first, it will be someone else.  GT, UVA, etc.  The monetary situation for their teams, long-term, is too dire for them to hold out for more than 3-5 years.

13 years is an eternity in conference affiliation.  The original Big 12 only lasted 15 years.

Do you really think the ACC can hold out for that long with the contract they have?

Protip: The answer is no.

[scottwildcat]

We'll be fine.  In two or three years, after the "Big 4" are pulling down over $40 million a year in TV/Bowls/NCAA tourney money, etc., and the ACC is getting payouts in the low $20s, you'll start hearing the drums beat more loudly.

Right now the divide isn't that big.  In a few years?  It's going to be too big to ignore.  The ACC presidents may not want to move, but FSU boosters are going to be really, really chapped if UF is pulling down tens of millions more than they are every year.  They're having a hard enough time keeping up as is.  And even if it's not them first, it will be someone else.  GT, UVA, etc.  The monetary situation for their teams, long-term, is too dire for them to hold out for more than 3-5 years.

13 years is an eternity in conference affiliation.  The original Big 12 only lasted 15 years.

Do you really think the ACC can hold out for that long with the contract they have?

Protip: The answer is no.

Went straight to the bottom 

[AbeFroman]

I'm really bored with realignment now. Seems like it's just an excuse for pud teams to get attention when nobody is watching their pud teams. Maryland talk during football season? woof.

[CatsNShocks]

http://espn.go.com/college-sports/story/_/id/8735330/big-east-direction-concerns-conference-catholic-schools-sources-say

[wabash909]

Cincinnati's quest for the ACC.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121209/NEWS0102/312100021

[Panjandrum]

Cincinnati's quest for the ACC.

http://news.cincinnati.com/article/20121209/NEWS0102/312100021

They'll get there eventually.

The ACC is becoming the old Big East, the new Big East is becoming the old C-USA, and the new C-USA is becoming the old Sun Belt.

And so it goes as the big conferences get larger.  The Sun Belt will either convince FCS schools to uplift or it will die.

[sonofdaxjones]

In regards to Texas, while I certainly appreciate them, there seems to be a growing group of Texas fans on the Internet that are tired of Texas seemingly . . . kind of being a pain in the ass, tired of DeLoss Dodds, tired of Mack Brown . . . and tired of the inner circle of power brokers down there that facilitate DeLoss kind of being a dick about all of this conference re-alignment stuff all of the time.

But hey, I'm not complaining, just observing.

[Panjandrum]

In regards to Texas, while I certainly appreciate them, there seems to be a growing group of Texas fans on the Internet that are tired of Texas seemingly . . . kind of being a pain in the ass, tired of DeLoss Dodds, tired of Mack Brown . . . and tired of the inner circle of power brokers down there that facilitate DeLoss kind of being a dick about all of this conference re-alignment stuff all of the time.

But hey, I'm not complaining, just observing.

10-2 and Johnny Heisman were the worst things that could have happened to DeLoss Dodds.

The narrative that A&M was going to get killed in the new SEC died in less than 12 months, and with their 'planned' stadium expansion, those same Internet folks are afraid that A&M could be the premier football program in the state if the Big 12 doesn't expand and put Texas in a conference that's on equal (or as close to equal as possible) footing.

You can sit on piles of money, but at some point, there will be so much between both schools that it will be pointless. What will matter is the brand, and  if the Big 12 doesn't improve its brand, Texas' will go down with it while A&M's goes up with the value of the SEC brand.

I think a growing group of Texas followers are savvy enough to see the long term impacts of allowing the Big 12 to sit on their hands.  The anti-Dodds sentiment is starting to really take hold.

[Rage Against the McKee]

I'm not sure if the SEC really improved their brand, though. At some point, if half of the league continues to be shitty going forward, talking heads will catch on.

["storm"nut]

I'm not sure if the SEC really improved their brand, though. At some point, if half of the league continues to be shitty going forward, talking heads will catch on.

  best joke posted om in this thread. Poor MU's brand, even after this year is better because of the SEC

[Shacks]

I'm not sure if the SEC really improved their brand, though. At some point, if half of the league continues to be shitty going forward, talking heads will catch on.

None of the major members of the sports media will call out the SEC and the fact that they only have so many highly ranked teams because none of them play each other until they go a couple years without winning a title