Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Pete]

More FSU rumors from FSU posters on another board...pretty good thread, below is an excerpt

http://247sports.com/Board/30/FSU-and-Clemson-to-Big-12-9457896/1

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

Clemson and FSU to The Big XII is very, very close to reality. This is what I know (not speculation). This information is from an Athletic Director from a current Big XII school.

During the recent BCS meetings, a 4 team playoff format was discussed. The proposed format included the following (all things are still under discussion and subject to change):

1. No conferences will have AQ status
2. Multiple teams from 1 conference can qualify for playoffs
3. An RPI formula (similar to college basketball) was used to determine qualifiers
4. Venues included Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl and possibly GA Dome - No Orange Bowl

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team. The Big East had more qualifiers over this time span. This point was hammered and driven home to Clemson and FSU by Big XII officials. - If you want to compete and play for a national championship under the playoff format that is coming, you will have to leave the ACC.

This left Swofford scrambling to find a way to keep the ACC viable and intact as a major player in football. However, there was only one conclusion that seemed to achieve that result - talk Notre Dame into joining the conference. At the moment, Notre Dame would like to remain independent, so it will not be an easy task. But again, this is the only team that can add the relevant interest (viewers and dollars) to keep the ACC alive as a football conference.

With the additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh, the ACC has been trying to renegotiate it's TV deal with ESPN. Those talks have now come to a halt, and is looking like it may end up going in front of an arbitrator. Has ESPN caught wind of the possible defections of the ACC most profitable football members?

So what does all this mean? I was told the following (again, by an AD that was at the meetings and involved in the discussions): There is a very high percentage chance that both Clemson and FSU leave the ACC to join the Big XII. The money per team will be almost double what the ACC is able to offer - and that does not include independent 3rd tier deals that Clemson and FSU will work out on their own. There is also a 3rd ACC school involved in the mix to join the Big XII. However, that school is being chosen from a couple of different possibilities. If those defections do indeed occur, look for two ACC school to leave and join the SEC. The SEC has their eye on 2 in particular. Louisville will most likely be the 14th team added to the Big XII. This could also force Notre Dame to join a conference. There is a 90% chance they would join the big 10. The big 10 would actually be quite happy sitting at an odd number (13) with the addition of Notre Dame.

The talk of division alignment and common opponents have also began. Common cross-divisional opponents that have been discussed are the following:

Clemson vs Oklahoma
Florida State vs Texas
West Virginia vs TCU

The Big XII feels that those would be major, nationally relevant games that would bring both the conference and schools national exposure year after year - to the same level as the SEC currently gets.

The Big XII has meetings upcoming. Look for rumors to start heating up immediately following those meetings; and continue to stay hot and heavy. Announcements could come during the beginning of football season (Sept-Oct).

This is a very fluid situation with plenty of moving parts - so things can change any day. But as of today, it is looking very very likely that this will happen. An in terms of the growth and success of both FSU and Clemson football, this would be a GREAT thing.

[Pete]

Another one from that same thread that caught my eye 

And from a staff member of a Big12 team who seems to be connected to it

"New Big 12 Commish floated tonight. More smoke...

June/July - FSU/Clemson is my prediction

2014 - two more"

"The Big 12 Commish has been named. The plan is there to follow. There should be an announcement in June/July of FSU/Clemson being invited to join and then the Big 12 will be back to 12. Then a few more teams will want out and the Big 12 and BiG will go back to 14."

[Pete]

LOLZ!

And to break it down to stupid people...

Here's the pitch.
B12: So how would you like to join the Big 12? FSU: Mehh. Six moths ago you were trying to join us. We'll see how this plays out. B12: Fair enough. We'd like to show you some stuff to think about. First, here is a chart at what the conferences made from the BCS over the last 10 years:
SEC - $260 million. Big 12 - $250 million Big 10 - $245 million Pac 12 - $240 million ACC - $210 million Big East - $200 million
Now have you reviewed the new BCS rules that will go in effect in the next contract?
FSU: No.
B12: Well you should. If you applied those rules to the last 10 years of football this chart shows what the breakdown of how the BCS Revenue would have been divided up:
SEC - $400 million Big 12 - $375 million Pac 12 - $360 million Big 10 - $342 million ACC - $127 million Big East - $60 million
FSU - (stunned silence)
B12 - you see. You got three problems. First, when confronted last year with the reality of realignment, the ACC, your conference made a basketball decision. It will continue to do that. If you want to be in a basketball league you're in the right place because they will continue to make basketball decisions. Second, you are in a race you can't win. You cannot get outspent by Florida by a 4:1 margin and stay competitive. It is simply not possible. And that is where this is going. Third, your final problem is that other schools in your conference get this and they liked our charts.
[Drops microphone walks of stage]

[Stevesie60]

Kudos to Panj for predicting NC St and V Tech to SEC. That first FSU post all but confirmed that.

[Pete]

Kudos to Panj for predicting NC St and V Tech to SEC. That first FSU post all but confirmed that.

The Deloss Dodds line of "take two, then the rest will come to us" is seeming quite prophetic. 

[Panjandrum]

Kudos to Panj for predicting NC St and V Tech to SEC. That first FSU post all but confirmed that.

You have no idea how long I have (and still do) stare at this stuff.  The ND to Big Ten kind of throws a wrench into my plans, but I'm sticking firm on this for now.

My predictions for the Big 12: FSU, Clemson, Maryland, and Lousiville
My predictions for the ACC: Rutgers
My predictions if the SEC wants to jump to 16: NC State and VaTech (still...the politics involved will make it very, very hard)

...but I don't think the SEC will jump.  Mike Slive does not want 16.

Boise, SDSU, and Navy will back out of the Big East.  They will go back to 16 schools where eight play football and eight play basketball.  But that's another story.  I don't think that conference lives much longer.

I could go into FCS teams that I think get uplifted into the Sun Belt (App. State, Georgia Southern), MAC (James Madison), and C-USA (ODU), but that's more detail than anyone cares to know or read.

[Pete]

Kudos to Panj for predicting NC St and V Tech to SEC. That first FSU post all but confirmed that.

You have no idea how long I have (and still do) stare at this stuff.  The ND to Big Ten kind of throws a wrench into my plans, but I'm sticking firm on this for now.

My predictions for the Big 12: FSU, Clemson, Maryland, and Lousiville
My predictions for the ACC: Rutgers
My predictions if the SEC wants to jump to 16: NC State and VaTech (still...the politics involved will make it very, very hard)

...but I don't think the SEC will jump.  Mike Slive does not want 16.

Boise, SDSU, and Navy will back out of the Big East.  They will go back to 16 schools where eight play football and eight play basketball.  But that's another story.  I don't think that conference lives much longer.

I could go into FCS teams that I think get uplifted into the Sun Belt (App. State, Georgia Southern), MAC (James Madison), and C-USA (ODU), but that's more detail than anyone cares to know or read.

Allegedly, NC State some sort of shared governorship as UNC, which is why some are saying that they'd never split up.

I haven't read anything that says that Va Tech and UVA are locked together, but who knows.

[Panjandrum]

Kudos to Panj for predicting NC St and V Tech to SEC. That first FSU post all but confirmed that.

You have no idea how long I have (and still do) stare at this stuff.  The ND to Big Ten kind of throws a wrench into my plans, but I'm sticking firm on this for now.

My predictions for the Big 12: FSU, Clemson, Maryland, and Lousiville
My predictions for the ACC: Rutgers
My predictions if the SEC wants to jump to 16: NC State and VaTech (still...the politics involved will make it very, very hard)

...but I don't think the SEC will jump.  Mike Slive does not want 16.

Boise, SDSU, and Navy will back out of the Big East.  They will go back to 16 schools where eight play football and eight play basketball.  But that's another story.  I don't think that conference lives much longer.

I could go into FCS teams that I think get uplifted into the Sun Belt (App. State, Georgia Southern), MAC (James Madison), and C-USA (ODU), but that's more detail than anyone cares to know or read.

Allegedly, NC State some sort of shared governorship as UNC, which is why some are saying that they'd never split up.

I haven't read anything that says that Va Tech and UVA are locked together, but who knows.

They aren't "locked" together, but there is a sentiment that due to how hard UVA and the Virginia legislature fought to get Va Tech into the ACC, there is an obligation for them to stay.

My general thought is that NC State would be sacrificed to the SEC gods in return for letting them live.

[TheHamburglar]

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team.

Umm....no.  Clemson was 10-3.  I've heard the 1 ACC team in last 10 years elsewhere, but it was 2007 Va Tech.

[Panjandrum]

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team.

Umm....no.  Clemson was 10-3.  I've heard the 1 ACC team in last 10 years elsewhere, but it was 2007 Va Tech.

Correct.

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2012/5/3/2995300/bcs-college-football-playoff-conference-champions

[WildcatNkilt]

Yes...if the new 4 team playoff goes by the RPI method, the SEC or Big 12 would have a better chance of getting two teams into the playoffs than the ACC would have with one team.

I always see the Big 12 and SEC getting at least 1 team in every year.  I see the Big 10 probably getting one in every year as well.  I see the PAC 12 trading a spot on and off with the likes of a 2nd SEC team or maybe Big 12.  Plus, you have the Boise State's of the world that could go undefeated and finally have an RPI strong enough to get in (if they play the Oregons and VTs etc. pre-conference). 

This move seems like a no-brainer for Florida St. and Clemson.

[Katpappy]

Yes...if the new 4 team playoff goes by the RPI method, the SEC or Big 12 would have a better chance of getting two teams into the playoffs than the ACC would have with one team.

I always see the Big 12 and SEC getting at least 1 team in every year.  I see the Big 10 probably getting one in every year as well.  I see the PAC 12 trading a spot on and off with the likes of a 2nd SEC team or maybe Big 12.  Plus, you have the Boise State's of the world that could go undefeated and finally have an RPI strong enough to get in (if they play the Oregons and VTs etc. pre-conference). 

This move seems like a no-brainer for Florida St. and Clemson.

Good point.  Teams in weak conferences will almost never get into the playoffs at four with the RPI; this will be the factor that kills these conferences.  Any team AD and President with forsight will want to aline with one of the top conferences for survival.

[3maw]

does miami stay pouting on the sideline with the ACC, or does the SEC dare invite them in? seems like they're the ugly aggressive dog at the animal shelter who everyone feels bad for, but no one wants to clean up its crap.

[captaincrap]

FCS teams that I think get uplifted

The opposite will happen. Fbs teams will become Fcs in fb. Idaho likely the first.

[Katpappy]

FCS teams that I think get uplifted

The opposite will happen. Fbs teams will become Fcs in fb. Idaho likely the first.

This should happen to most of the BB schools; they don't give a eff about FB anyway.

[Stevesie60]

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team.

Umm....no.  Clemson was 10-3.  I've heard the 1 ACC team in last 10 years elsewhere, but it was 2007 Va Tech.

Correct.

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2012/5/3/2995300/bcs-college-football-playoff-conference-champions

We wouldn't have made it in 1998 OR 2003? I hate this system already.

[Rage Against the McKee]

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team.

Umm....no.  Clemson was 10-3.  I've heard the 1 ACC team in last 10 years elsewhere, but it was 2007 Va Tech.

Correct.

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2012/5/3/2995300/bcs-college-football-playoff-conference-champions

We wouldn't have made it in 1998 OR 2003? I hate this system already.

We would have easily made it in 1998 if there weren't a conference championship requirement. The 2003 team had losses to Marshall and OSU, so of course they wouldn't have made it either.

[ben ji]

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team.

Umm....no.  Clemson was 10-3.  I've heard the 1 ACC team in last 10 years elsewhere, but it was 2007 Va Tech.

Correct.

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2012/5/3/2995300/bcs-college-football-playoff-conference-champions

We wouldn't have made it in 1998 OR 2003? I hate this system already.

#3 BCS team in 98 i believe. We would of made if it was top 3 conference champs and next highest ranked team.

[Stevesie60]

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team.

Umm....no.  Clemson was 10-3.  I've heard the 1 ACC team in last 10 years elsewhere, but it was 2007 Va Tech.

Correct.

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2012/5/3/2995300/bcs-college-football-playoff-conference-champions

We wouldn't have made it in 1998 OR 2003? I hate this system already.

We would have easily made it in 1998 if there weren't a conference championship requirement. The 2003 team had losses to Marshall and OSU, so of course they wouldn't have made it either.

I'm just confused why they take A&M over us in 1998, but not us over OU in 2003. It makes sense in 2003, just seems like a very similar situation but we got screwed no matter which position we were in.

[Trim]

I skim/speed-read this thread now like it's in the Pit.

[Rage Against the McKee]

This was posted by FluffyBunny in our thread on Noles247

They took the last 10 years of statistics to determine which schools over the last 10 years would have qualified under this format. An alarming finding for Swofford and the ACC was that only 1 ACC school in the last 10 years would have qualified for the playoffs - last year's Clemson team.

Umm....no.  Clemson was 10-3.  I've heard the 1 ACC team in last 10 years elsewhere, but it was 2007 Va Tech.

Correct.

http://www.landgrantholyland.com/2012/5/3/2995300/bcs-college-football-playoff-conference-champions

We wouldn't have made it in 1998 OR 2003? I hate this system already.

We would have easily made it in 1998 if there weren't a conference championship requirement. The 2003 team had losses to Marshall and OSU, so of course they wouldn't have made it either.

I'm just confused why they take A&M over us in 1998, but not us over OU in 2003. It makes sense in 2003, just seems like a very similar situation but we got screwed no matter which position we were in.

They must have taken OU in 2003 because there weren't 4 conference champions in the BCS top 6. Either that, or they made a mistake. It's just some sports blog.

[jmlynch1]

I skim/speed-read this thread now like it's in the Pit.

You should read it. Its really fun.

[wabash909]

Allegedly, NC State some sort of shared governorship as UNC, which is why some are saying that they'd never split up.

I haven't read anything that says that Va Tech and UVA are locked together, but who knows.

I doubt Va Tech and UVA are joined.  The Hokies didn't even jump from the Big East to join them in the ACC until 2004.

[Panjandrum]

FCS teams that I think get uplifted

The opposite will happen. Fbs teams will become Fcs in fb. Idaho likely the first.

Teams on the west coast with limited geographical options are getting downgraded (Idaho, NMSU).  Teams on the east coast with access to low level conferences (C-USA, MAC, Sun Belt) are looking to round out.  There will be a net gain.  NMSU and Idaho are screwed because in the lower levels, the money gained does not exceed travel cost.

However, geographically, App. State and Georgia Southern are easily in the Sun Belt footprint.  JMU is within 200 miles of several MAC schools.

We've already seen four teams uplifted for 2012 or 2013 (UMass, Texas State, South Alabama, Georgia State).  App State, Georgia State, ODU, and JMU are already geared up to move.  Also, App. State would have outdrawn nearly every other Sun Belt school in average attendance last year, so there's that.

[WildcatNation]

And there's this

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/18984821/big-12-verbally-agrees-to-new-espnfox-deal