Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Panjandrum]

Yes...if the new 4 team playoff goes by the RPI method, the SEC or Big 12 would have a better chance of getting two teams into the playoffs than the ACC would have with one team.

I always see the Big 12 and SEC getting at least 1 team in every year.  I see the Big 10 probably getting one in every year as well.  I see the PAC 12 trading a spot on and off with the likes of a 2nd SEC team or maybe Big 12.  Plus, you have the Boise State's of the world that could go undefeated and finally have an RPI strong enough to get in (if they play the Oregons and VTs etc. pre-conference). 

This move seems like a no-brainer for Florida St. and Clemson.

I put something together that shows the 6 existing AQ conferences that shows the average BCS ranking of the conference champion.  In the event that the champion that year is no longer a member, I substituted it with the highest ranked member outside of that group. For some previous champs, like Miami in the Big East, I did not give them credit for their old or new conference since they had a champion.

I did have to substitute Boise in for the Big East a few times, but overall, the numbers worked out for the top five conference fairly easily.  The Big 12 took a hit in the early 00's because we couldn't claim Colorado in 2001 (#3) and had to take Texas (#7) instead.

There's other crap I had to throw in there, too.  For example, in 03, we were the champs, but under the most recent proposed format, if there aren't four conference champions in the Top 6, they'll take the highest ranked duplicate or independent.  For us that would have been Oklahoma (#1).  I took that into consideration.

The Big East didn't have anyone on the list outside of Miami in 01 and 02, so I gave them a default value of 25 for each of those years since that's how far they extend out the rankings now.

Here are the average conference champ rankings in the last ten years:

1. SEC (3.4)
2. Big 12 (3.8)
3. Pac-12 (4.0)
4. Big Ten (5.7)
5. ACC (12.2)
6. Big East (13.7)

As you can see, there is a very clear divide.  The math may be a tiny bit hazy, but the demarcation is still very clear.

[bws]

Kudos to Panj for predicting NC St and V Tech to SEC. That first FSU post all but confirmed that.

You have no idea how long I have (and still do) stare at this stuff.  The ND to Big Ten kind of throws a wrench into my plans, but I'm sticking firm on this for now.

My predictions for the Big 12: FSU, Clemson, Maryland, and Lousiville
My predictions for the ACC: Rutgers
My predictions if the SEC wants to jump to 16: NC State and VaTech (still...the politics involved will make it very, very hard)

...but I don't think the SEC will jump.  Mike Slive does not want 16.

Boise, SDSU, and Navy will back out of the Big East.  They will go back to 16 schools where eight play football and eight play basketball.  But that's another story.  I don't think that conference lives much longer.

I could go into FCS teams that I think get uplifted into the Sun Belt (App. State, Georgia Southern), MAC (James Madison), and C-USA (ODU), but that's more detail than anyone cares to know or read.

This makes alot of sense. Curious as to why you think Maryland over Miami? The D.C market combined with Maryland's financial issues? I think a big problem with Maryland is its a pro state, not unlike Mizzou. They look good on paper but when it comes down to it, they don't have great support and aren't a huge CFB TV draw.

The support part can be true about Miami, but I would assume they are a massive TV draw just due to their recent history and everything that comes with the U and its mystique. In addition, the marquee matchups you create for TV by bringing in Miami increase quite a bit over what Maryland would bring. The Miami/FSU game has 3 of the top 7 highest all time rated espn games. You include that rivalry with regular games against UT and OU and whoever else in the big 12 is ranked at the time. They are a much better candidate imo, also you  completely lock down the 3rd largest state in the union for TV negotiations and open up the rest of us to regular TV appearances in both Texas and Florida (where the athletes are) from August until April. ADs and coaches of every school in this conference will love that for what it would do for recruiting in every sport.

ESPN'S MOST VIEWED REGULAR SEASON GAMES
DATE    GAME (Result)    HOUSEHOLDS
9/12/2009    USC at Ohio State (USC won, 18-15)   7,243,000
9/4/2006    Florida State at Miami (Florida State won, 13-10)   6,329,828
9/7/2009    Miami at Florida State (Miami won, 38-34)   5,820,001
11/2/2006   West Virginia at Louisville (Louisville won, 44-34)   4,915,915
9/6/2008    Miami at Florida (Florida won, 26-3)   4,886,206
10/8/1994    Florida State at Miami (Miami won, 34-20)   4,846,320
ESPN'S HIGHEST RATED REGULAR SEASON GAMES
DATE    GAME    RATING
10/8/1994    FSU at Miami   7.70
9/12/2009    USC at Ohio State   7.30
9/4/2006    FSU at Miami   6.86
9/12/1991   Houston at Miami   6.50
10/27/1990    Notre Dame at Pitt   6.50
11/17/1990    Penn State at Notre Dame   6.50

[sonofdaxjones]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/18984821/big-12-verbally-agrees-to-new-espnfox-deal

[CyberToothCat]

And there's this

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/18984821/big-12-verbally-agrees-to-new-espnfox-deal

While $200 million per year split 10 ways is 

How does that compare to what the SEC is currently negotiating?  How does it compare to what the big 10 will get in a couple years when it renegotiates?   I think the Pac 12 schools are getting $21 million per year, plus revenue from the Tier 3 networks.  With only 10 schools, we  just simply don't have enough inventory to create a conference Tier 3 network (plus Texas is already doing its own thing anyway).

I think $20 mil/yr gets us close to the big 10 for a couple of years before they renegotiate, and puts us behind the SEC and PAC.  With this contract, are we basically settling for 4th place (assuming the ACC signs for less than that...)?

[3maw]

Kudos to Panj for predicting NC St and V Tech to SEC. That first FSU post all but confirmed that.

You have no idea how long I have (and still do) stare at this stuff.  The ND to Big Ten kind of throws a wrench into my plans, but I'm sticking firm on this for now.

My predictions for the Big 12: FSU, Clemson, Maryland, and Lousiville
My predictions for the ACC: Rutgers
My predictions if the SEC wants to jump to 16: NC State and VaTech (still...the politics involved will make it very, very hard)

...but I don't think the SEC will jump.  Mike Slive does not want 16.

Boise, SDSU, and Navy will back out of the Big East.  They will go back to 16 schools where eight play football and eight play basketball.  But that's another story.  I don't think that conference lives much longer.

I could go into FCS teams that I think get uplifted into the Sun Belt (App. State, Georgia Southern), MAC (James Madison), and C-USA (ODU), but that's more detail than anyone cares to know or read.

This makes alot of sense. Curious as to why you think Maryland over Miami? The D.C market combined with Maryland's financial issues? I think a big problem with Maryland is its a pro state, not unlike Mizzou. They look good on paper but when it comes down to it, they don't have great support and aren't a huge CFB TV draw.

The support part can be true about Miami, but I would assume they are a massive TV draw just due to their recent history and everything that comes with the U and its mystique. In addition, the marquee matchups you create for TV by bringing in Miami increase quite a bit over what Maryland would bring. The Miami/FSU game has 3 of the top 7 highest all time rated espn games. You include that rivalry with regular games against UT and OU and whoever else in the big 12 is ranked at the time. They are a much better candidate imo, also you  completely lock down the 3rd largest state in the union for TV negotiations and open up the rest of us to regular TV appearances in both Texas and Florida (where the athletes are) from August until April. ADs and coaches of every school in this conference will love that for what it would do for recruiting in every sport.

ESPN'S MOST VIEWED REGULAR SEASON GAMES
DATE    GAME (Result)    HOUSEHOLDS
9/12/2009    USC at Ohio State (USC won, 18-15)   7,243,000
9/4/2006    Florida State at Miami (Florida State won, 13-10)   6,329,828
9/7/2009    Miami at Florida State (Miami won, 38-34)   5,820,001
11/2/2006   West Virginia at Louisville (Louisville won, 44-34)   4,915,915
9/6/2008    Miami at Florida (Florida won, 26-3)   4,886,206
10/8/1994    Florida State at Miami (Miami won, 34-20)   4,846,320
ESPN'S HIGHEST RATED REGULAR SEASON GAMES
DATE    GAME    RATING
10/8/1994    FSU at Miami   7.70
9/12/2009    USC at Ohio State   7.30
9/4/2006    FSU at Miami   6.86
9/12/1991   Houston at Miami   6.50
10/27/1990    Notre Dame at Pitt   6.50
11/17/1990    Penn State at Notre Dame   6.50

that was my thought too with miami. The big issue i think if the other schools having to deal with miami's never ending skidmark on their integrity. it's a no brainer for miami - if FSU comes to the big 12 - follow along. If they don't for some unknown reason - lord knows they need the money. overshadowed in such a huge town, does someone have numbers on how their sole followers compare to the heat, dolphins, etc?

then again, having maryland join would be more attractive to WVU, giving them at least a couple games where they don't have to journey more than a few hours for the matchup...

[Houcat]

FSU & Clemson to the B12? This guy thinks otherwise...

Forget Rumors – Reasons Why FSU Would Never Join the Big 12

http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2012/05/forget-rumors-reasons-why-fsu-would-never-join-the-big-12/

NO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT OR BOARD OF TRUSTEES WILL EVER LEAVE AN ASSOCIATION WITH SCHOOLS LIKE DUKE, UNC, WAKE FOREST, MIAMI, GEORGIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE AND VIRGINIA IN FAVOR OF ONE WITH TEXAS TECH, OKLAHOMA STATE, WEST VIRGINIA AND KANSAS STATE.

  (my bolding).

[wabash909]

FSU & Clemson to the B12? This guy thinks otherwise...

Forget Rumors – Reasons Why FSU Would Never Join the Big 12

http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2012/05/forget-rumors-reasons-why-fsu-would-never-join-the-big-12/

NO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT OR BOARD OF TRUSTEES WILL EVER LEAVE AN ASSOCIATION WITH SCHOOLS LIKE DUKE, UNC, WAKE FOREST, MIAMI, GEORGIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE AND VIRGINIA IN FAVOR OF ONE WITH TEXAS TECH, OKLAHOMA STATE, WEST VIRGINIA AND KANSAS STATE.

  (my bolding).

He was pretty jerky but makes a good argument.

[Panjandrum]

Why Maryland?  They fit the profile.

State school (Miami is private).

Only BCS team in a state with major media markets.

They are in the middle of a significant financial issue.

Rivalry with WVU (and close enough to be a travel partner).

They are an AAU school.

Their football program hasn't been teetering on the edge of the death penalty multiple times in the last two decades.

Personally, I think Miami is too high drama.  I get why we'd take them, and I wouldn't be upset if we did.  However, I think they're viewed as a pretty toxic entity.

[sonofdaxjones]

Thing is, all the supposed blue bloods in the ACC think Florida State is a culturally bankrupt football factory.

[ben ji]

And there's this

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/18984821/big-12-verbally-agrees-to-new-espnfox-deal

While $200 million per year split 10 ways is 

How does that compare to what the SEC is currently negotiating?  How does it compare to what the big 10 will get in a couple years when it renegotiates?   I think the Pac 12 schools are getting $21 million per year, plus revenue from the Tier 3 networks.  With only 10 schools, we  just simply don't have enough inventory to create a conference Tier 3 network (plus Texas is already doing its own thing anyway).

I think $20 mil/yr gets us close to the big 10 for a couple of years before they renegotiate, and puts us behind the SEC and PAC.  With this contract, are we basically settling for 4th place (assuming the ACC signs for less than that...)?

Not sure on what other kind of money the SEC PAC and big 10 are looking when they renegotiate but 1-2 million more isnt that big of a deal when the new BCS playoff comes out and a conference can have more than 1 team.

We will be dividing that money by 10 while they divide it by 14/12.

[kim carnes]

FSU & Clemson to the B12? This guy thinks otherwise...

Forget Rumors – Reasons Why FSU Would Never Join the Big 12

http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2012/05/forget-rumors-reasons-why-fsu-would-never-join-the-big-12/

NO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT OR BOARD OF TRUSTEES WILL EVER LEAVE AN ASSOCIATION WITH SCHOOLS LIKE DUKE, UNC, WAKE FOREST, MIAMI, GEORGIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE AND VIRGINIA IN FAVOR OF ONE WITH TEXAS TECH, OKLAHOMA STATE, WEST VIRGINIA AND KANSAS STATE.

  (my bolding).

He was pretty jerky but makes a good argument.

It is THE reason why this will never happen

[Katpappy]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/18984821/big-12-verbally-agrees-to-new-espnfox-deal

BSOLJ(Bastard Son Of Luke Jones)... see prev. pg. 

[Panjandrum]

FSU & Clemson to the B12? This guy thinks otherwise...

Forget Rumors – Reasons Why FSU Would Never Join the Big 12

http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2012/05/forget-rumors-reasons-why-fsu-would-never-join-the-big-12/

NO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT OR BOARD OF TRUSTEES WILL EVER LEAVE AN ASSOCIATION WITH SCHOOLS LIKE DUKE, UNC, WAKE FOREST, MIAMI, GEORGIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE AND VIRGINIA IN FAVOR OF ONE WITH TEXAS TECH, OKLAHOMA STATE, WEST VIRGINIA AND KANSAS STATE.

  (my bolding).

He was pretty jerky but makes a good argument.

It is THE reason why this will never happen

It starts with message boards and blogs.  Then it moves to the media.  Once the media starts talking and pointing out the talking points of the fans (more money, better competition, brighter future, etc.), the fans form a mob.  The mob includes boosters.  Boosters work on the regents.  The regents and boosters surround the presidents.

Do you really believe Brady Deaton wanted to go to the SEC?  Or do you think he was painted into a corner by the mob?

There's a reason that this is following the exact same playbook as Mizzou and A&M.  People aren't stupid.  Even if the rumors aren't true, the damage has already been done.  The snowball has started rolling down the hill.  Credible media outlets are now debating what FSU and Clemson should do.

Who do you think donates the most money, academically and athletically, at schools like Clemson and Florida State?  Football fans.  Do you think that a university president wants to start fielding calls from his most generous donors telling him that the ACC sucks and they should go to the Big 12?

Think it through, kim.  This is real.

[MadCat]

Is Miami good academically? 

[Dugout DickStone]

Is Miami good academically? 

Is Florida State?

[Katpappy]

Is Miami good academically? 

Is Florida State?

The real question- Does this have anything to do with football? 

[kim carnes]

FSU & Clemson to the B12? This guy thinks otherwise...

Forget Rumors – Reasons Why FSU Would Never Join the Big 12

http://dev.chuckoliver.net/2012/05/forget-rumors-reasons-why-fsu-would-never-join-the-big-12/

NO UNIVERSITY PRESIDENT OR BOARD OF TRUSTEES WILL EVER LEAVE AN ASSOCIATION WITH SCHOOLS LIKE DUKE, UNC, WAKE FOREST, MIAMI, GEORGIA TECH, BOSTON COLLEGE AND VIRGINIA IN FAVOR OF ONE WITH TEXAS TECH, OKLAHOMA STATE, WEST VIRGINIA AND KANSAS STATE.

  (my bolding).

He was pretty jerky but makes a good argument.

It is THE reason why this will never happen

It starts with message boards and blogs.  Then it moves to the media.  Once the media starts talking and pointing out the talking points of the fans (more money, better competition, brighter future, etc.), the fans form a mob.  The mob includes boosters.  Boosters work on the regents.  The regents and boosters surround the presidents.

Do you really believe Brady Deaton wanted to go to the SEC?  Or do you think he was painted into a corner by the mob?

There's a reason that this is following the exact same playbook as Mizzou and A&M.  People aren't stupid.  Even if the rumors aren't true, the damage has already been done.  The snowball has started rolling down the hill.  Credible media outlets are now debating what FSU and Clemson should do.

Who do you think donates the most money, academically and athletically, at schools like Clemson and Florida State?  Football fans.  Do you think that a university president wants to start fielding calls from his most generous donors telling him that the ACC sucks and they should go to the Big 12?

Think it through, kim.  This is real.

Florida St will find a way to go to the SEC if they really want to change conferences.

[PowercatPat]

Is Miami good academically? 

Is Florida State?

The real question- Does this have anything to do with football? 

This. This is all about football and tv sets, not academics.

[Katpappy]

Is Miami good academically? 

Is Florida State?

The real question- Does this have anything to do with football? 

This. This is all about football and tv sets, not academics.

As Deloss stated "We'll take two and the rest will follow" is all about football and cash.

[Panjandrum]

Florida St will find a way to go to the SEC if they really want to change conferences.

Do not pass go.  Do not collect $200 dollars.

[Skipper44]

Florida St will find a way to go to the SEC if they really want to change conferences.

Do not pass go.  Do not collect $200 dollars.

lols

[sonofdaxjones]

http://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/blog/dennis-dodd/18984821/big-12-verbally-agrees-to-new-espnfox-deal

BSOLJ(Bastard Son Of Luke Jones)... see prev. pg. 

Dang

[MadCat]

Is Miami good academically? 

Is Florida State?

I meant this in regard to slumming with K-State.  We all know Florida State rivals Arizona State in nerdsmanship.

[ednksu]

K-State/KU = FSU/UF (x3 scale)

/Floridian


FSU does have pretty good academics in a variety of fields

[wabash909]

Is Miami good academically? 

Is Florida State?

I meant this in regard to slumming with K-State.  We all know Florida State rivals Arizona State in nerdsmanship.

But when I think Florida State, I think of Floridian Johns Hopkins.

Just kidding, I think of loose moraled smoking hot coeds in miniskirts with exposed midriffs and straw cowboy hats.