Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Houstoncat93]

https://twitter.com/PFF_College/status/1422264715791712262

Mhver3  just confirmed this!  It has legs!!! 

[MakeItRain]

Do we think OU and Texas will be in the Big 12 through June 2025?

nope, but they're going to pay

They are going to pay something, no way it’s the full amount.

You keep saying this and I understand why but you've yet to address why the Big 12 would just give their money away. There's no reason for them to settle, just not wanting to put up with them isn't reason enough to just give money away especially if you're never going to make that much money again. I do agree with you that OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC want this over like yesterday, but I'm going to assume the aggrieved party will not reward bad behavior and will insist they are made whole.

[CantHaveNiceThingsKSU]

Gonna start using this link as my bible when it comes to all realignment talk. The other 7 programs left in the Big 12 can definitely stfu about K-State not bringing anything to the table.
https://graphics.wsj.com/table/NCAA_2019

[Houstoncat93]

Gonna start using this link as my bible when it comes to all realignment talk. The other 7 programs left in the Big 12 can definitely stfu about K-State not bringing anything to the table.
https://graphics.wsj.com/table/NCAA_2019

That analysis by the wsj has NOTHING to do with our value to TV networks.  It treats our Athletic Dept as a for profit business and assigns valuation models to it.  Since a good chunk of our revenue is tied to the value OU and UT bring to the TV contract it really is a bad way to look at the current situation.  At best is says we do a good job of not running up a done of debt and operating losses year after year.

[Katpappy]

At some point in time they are going to start cutting the fat.

How can you kick someone out of an existing conference without major legal ramifications?  Has that ever been done before?

Generally covered in the bylaws of the conference, I suspect most require a supermajority to vote them out.  Temple got kicked out of their conference in recent memory.

They could also do like the SWC did in '96 and devolve SEC and form a new conference.  If they get Clemson, Florida, OSU, UM, SC or similar set of schools, it could happen.

[wetwillie]

Do we think OU and Texas will be in the Big 12 through June 2025?

nope, but they're going to pay

They are going to pay something, no way it’s the full amount.

You keep saying this and I understand why but you've yet to address why the Big 12 would just give their money away. There's no reason for them to settle, just not wanting to put up with them isn't reason enough to just give money away especially if you're never going to make that much money again. I do agree with you that OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC want this over like yesterday, but I'm going to assume the aggrieved party will not reward bad behavior and will insist they are made whole.

How does this play out? Two teams leave and say we aren’t paying a dime. Big 12 says we are going to withhold your payment?  It’s like one big Mexican standoff with espn the big 12 and the two parting teams.  ESPN could withhold distribution to the big 12 in the same fashion that the big 12 could withhold OU and UT distributions right? It’s going to go to court, it’s going to be ugly, and I think like most legal matters will get settled and be for less than whatever the contract stipulates.  I think espn is likely on the hook to make the remaining 8 whole as if the two departing programs were still around though, if bowlsby’s claims are able to be proved legally.

[michigancat]

At some point in time they are going to start cutting the fat.

How can you kick someone out of an existing conference without major legal ramifications?  Has that ever been done before?

Generally covered in the bylaws of the conference, I suspect most require a supermajority to vote them out.  Temple got kicked out of their conference in recent memory.

They could also do like the SWC did in '96 and devolve SEC and form a new conference.  If they get Clemson, Florida, OSU, UM, SC or similar set of schools, it could happen.

Yeah we were effectively kicked out of our conference along with the other seven. The goal was certainly for the conference to dissolve to avoid paying exit fees

[Katpappy]

Yes, and it's funny why ESPN shut their trap about the Big XII dissolving this past week, as Big Bob sent notice. 

[Katpappy]

Also, I don't think the Big XII is going anywhere.  They are not a good fit in the other conferences and have to honor the GOR.  WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD THEY DISSOLVE AS THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO IT!

[nicname]

Also, I don't think the Big XII is going anywhere.  They are not a good fit in the other conferences and have to honor the GOR.  WHY IN THE WORLD WOULD THEY DISSOLVE AS THERE IS NO ADVANTAGE TO IT!

Yes. The argument I keep hearing from people is that any B12 leftover would be wise to jump at any chance to hitch ride with ACC, B10 and P12, because the opportunity may not come back around.

Imo that isn’t the case.

[pissclams]

Do we think OU and Texas will be in the Big 12 through June 2025?

nope, but they're going to pay

They are going to pay something, no way it’s the full amount.

You keep saying this and I understand why but you've yet to address why the Big 12 would just give their money away. There's no reason for them to settle, just not wanting to put up with them isn't reason enough to just give money away especially if you're never going to make that much money again. I do agree with you that OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC want this over like yesterday, but I'm going to assume the aggrieved party will not reward bad behavior and will insist they are made whole.

i admire the fact that you, as a black man living in iowa, still believe that there’s justice in this world

[Houstoncat93]

Do we think OU and Texas will be in the Big 12 through June 2025?

nope, but they're going to pay

They are going to pay something, no way it’s the full amount.

You keep saying this and I understand why but you've yet to address why the Big 12 would just give their money away. There's no reason for them to settle, just not wanting to put up with them isn't reason enough to just give money away especially if you're never going to make that much money again. I do agree with you that OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC want this over like yesterday, but I'm going to assume the aggrieved party will not reward bad behavior and will insist they are made whole.

How does this play out? Two teams leave and say we aren’t paying a dime. Big 12 says we are going to withhold your payment?  It’s like one big Mexican standoff with espn the big 12 and the two parting teams.  ESPN could withhold distribution to the big 12 in the same fashion that the big 12 could withhold OU and UT distributions right? It’s going to go to court, it’s going to be ugly, and I think like most legal matters will get settled and be for less than whatever the contract stipulates.  I think espn is likely on the hook to make the remaining 8 whole as if the two departing programs were still around though, if bowlsby’s claims are able to be proved legally.

A couple of points:

1.  This is realignment 2.0 not 1.0.  The new and improved version has contracts and bylaws that have been pre-scrubbed by teams of lawyers to make it much harder to jump early.  Not saying it is not possible, just that the risk to the jumping school and new conference is much greater than in version 1.0
2.  The new SEC contract doesn't start until 2023.  There is no revenue reason to jump early.  CBS is not going to bump up the last couple years of a contract they lost the renewal on and ESPN can't pay more until their contact starts.
3.  Other then getting rid of the awkwardness at the conference xmas party what is the incentive for the Big 12 to let them go early.  Remember, with the new and improved contracts the conference is negotiating  from a relative position of strength this time (at leas in the short term legal perspective).  It is also in survival mode which means until it has a clear path to safety it will dig its heals in for every dime.

[MadCat]

Gonna start using this link as my bible when it comes to all realignment talk. The other 7 programs left in the Big 12 can definitely stfu about K-State not bringing anything to the table.
https://graphics.wsj.com/table/NCAA_2019

The sorting of their data is jacked up.  If I sort based on revenue, I get all the numbers that start with 9, then all the numbers that start with 8, etc.  It's like alphabetical rather than value-based.

[chum1]

This is not smashing every nuclear button in sight.

https://twitter.com/max_olson/status/1422274156935188486

[wetwillie]

Sounds like a man that is about to get a cushy gig at ESPN

[KITNfury]

It could only hurt espn's image. The big 12 image is thoroughly mumped so I say air that dirty laundry. Plus I would enjoy the comedy of watching them squabble while our house burns down.

[Pete]

Sounds like a man that is about to get a cushy gig at ESPN

Or a small, but serviceable, tv contract extension.

[BMWWcat]

NONE of the leftover 8 schools add enough to any of the existing P5 conferences to make it worth the other conferences grabbing them. 
None add $35 million a year to the ACC or Pac-12 and none def. add $50 million to the Big 10, why would those conferences dilute their existing share per team???
I don't know why it's so hard for (ku fans) to understand how this works.
Your barely watched football games do not add $35-50 million to a conference.
Math not Meth people...

[wetwillie]

Sounds like a man that is about to get a cushy gig at ESPN

Or a small, but serviceable, tv contract extension.

Indeed

[Katpappy]

Sounds like a man that is about to get a cushy gig at ESPN

Or a small, but serviceable, tv contract extension.

Indeed

Welp, tv contract time is coming up in a few.

[MakeItRain]

Do we think OU and Texas will be in the Big 12 through June 2025?

nope, but they're going to pay

They are going to pay something, no way it’s the full amount.

You keep saying this and I understand why but you've yet to address why the Big 12 would just give their money away. There's no reason for them to settle, just not wanting to put up with them isn't reason enough to just give money away especially if you're never going to make that much money again. I do agree with you that OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC want this over like yesterday, but I'm going to assume the aggrieved party will not reward bad behavior and will insist they are made whole.

How does this play out? Two teams leave and say we aren’t paying a dime. Big 12 says we are going to withhold your payment?  It’s like one big Mexican standoff with espn the big 12 and the two parting teams.  ESPN could withhold distribution to the big 12 in the same fashion that the big 12 could withhold OU and UT distributions right? It’s going to go to court, it’s going to be ugly, and I think like most legal matters will get settled and be for less than whatever the contract stipulates.  I think espn is likely on the hook to make the remaining 8 whole as if the two departing programs were still around though, if bowlsby’s claims are able to be proved legally.

A couple of points:

1.  This is realignment 2.0 not 1.0.  The new and improved version has contracts and bylaws that have been pre-scrubbed by teams of lawyers to make it much harder to jump early.  Not saying it is not possible, just that the risk to the jumping school and new conference is much greater than in version 1.0
2.  The new SEC contract doesn't start until 2023.  There is no revenue reason to jump early.  CBS is not going to bump up the last couple years of a contract they lost the renewal on and ESPN can't pay more until their contact starts.
3.  Other then getting rid of the awkwardness at the conference xmas party what is the incentive for the Big 12 to let them go early.  Remember, with the new and improved contracts the conference is negotiating  from a relative position of strength this time (at leas in the short term legal perspective).  It is also in survival mode which means until it has a clear path to safety it will dig its heals in for every dime.

The new SEC contract starts in 2024 and that distinction is important as to what I think is going to happen. I think the schools bounce in 2024. They will then make a deal to pay their 1 year penalty over like 3-5 years. Bowlsby is turning down the heat because ideally ESPN will help the Big 12 and the SEC make this arrangement sooner rather than later so the Big 12 can move on trying to see what's next for 2024. This has to get resolved before 2024 but the schools have to pay what they owe, this is the best way.

[MakeItRain]

I'll post this quote from Bowlsby to throw some red meat to resident arsonists and whiners. For me this quote is an acknowledgement that schools are looking at the ACC, Big 10, and Pac 12 now but he wants and needs this to get resolved so everyone can move on to what's next with AAC schools. This also throws water on bringing in Pac 12 schools, with not having OU and UT, was a pipe dream anyway.

Texas lawmakers dug into the future of the Big 12 without the Sooners and Longhorns. Bowlsby said the TV contract value would take a 50% hit.

The Big 12 distributed $345 million to its 10 members this year ($34.5 million apiece), down from the previous year because of the pandemic. Most of that revenue comes from the Big 12?s TV deals, including ESPN. The SEC is positioned to distribute as much as $70 million annually to its members in coming years.

Bowlsby said he supported the idea of the remaining Big 12 teams sticking together and said they are exploring their options. He said he wouldn't blame any school for looking out for themselves first, but "there is a right way to do it."

[bucket]

https://twitter.com/max_olson/status/1422591043543965698

 

[0.42]

https://twitter.com/max_olson/status/1422591043543965698

 

let's party with ralphie again

[steve dave]

merger, yes
scheduling alliance, god no. woof city.