Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[wetwillie]

Do we think OU and Texas will be in the Big 12 through June 2025?

nope, but they're going to pay

They are going to pay something, no way it’s the full amount.

You keep saying this and I understand why but you've yet to address why the Big 12 would just give their money away. There's no reason for them to settle, just not wanting to put up with them isn't reason enough to just give money away especially if you're never going to make that much money again. I do agree with you that OU, UT, ESPN and the SEC want this over like yesterday, but I'm going to assume the aggrieved party will not reward bad behavior and will insist they are made whole.

How does this play out? Two teams leave and say we aren’t paying a dime. Big 12 says we are going to withhold your payment?  It’s like one big Mexican standoff with espn the big 12 and the two parting teams.  ESPN could withhold distribution to the big 12 in the same fashion that the big 12 could withhold OU and UT distributions right? It’s going to go to court, it’s going to be ugly, and I think like most legal matters will get settled and be for less than whatever the contract stipulates.  I think espn is likely on the hook to make the remaining 8 whole as if the two departing programs were still around though, if bowlsby’s claims are able to be proved legally.

A couple of points:

1.  This is realignment 2.0 not 1.0.  The new and improved version has contracts and bylaws that have been pre-scrubbed by teams of lawyers to make it much harder to jump early.  Not saying it is not possible, just that the risk to the jumping school and new conference is much greater than in version 1.0
2.  The new SEC contract doesn't start until 2023.  There is no revenue reason to jump early.  CBS is not going to bump up the last couple years of a contract they lost the renewal on and ESPN can't pay more until their contact starts.
3.  Other then getting rid of the awkwardness at the conference xmas party what is the incentive for the Big 12 to let them go early.  Remember, with the new and improved contracts the conference is negotiating  from a relative position of strength this time (at leas in the short term legal perspective).  It is also in survival mode which means until it has a clear path to safety it will dig its heals in for every dime.

The new SEC contract starts in 2024 and that distinction is important as to what I think is going to happen. I think the schools bounce in 2024. They will then make a deal to pay their 1 year penalty over like 3-5 years. Bowlsby is turning down the heat because ideally ESPN will help the Big 12 and the SEC make this arrangement sooner rather than later so the Big 12 can move on trying to see what's next for 2024. This has to get resolved before 2024 but the schools have to pay what they owe, this is the best way.

This is fantastic analysis, I can’t argue against any of it. 

[wetwillie]

merger, yes
scheduling alliance, god no. woof city.

Yea like what benefit do we get from a scheduling alliance? 

[Houstoncat93]

merger, yes
scheduling alliance, god no. woof city.

Yea like what benefit do we get from a scheduling alliance?

Maybe a little more money. We are now poor so even a few extra $$ will help.

[Hullabaloo]

The PAC has seemed like our best bet for a lifeline.  They're separated geographically from the rest of the conferences and don't have alot of options unless they want to to be playing coast-to-coast across 4 times zones.  Maybe the CA schools can be OK with going to KS once in awhile if it prevents them from having to play in the Eastern time zone several times a year.

[nicname]

merger, yes
scheduling alliance, god no. woof city.

Yea like what benefit do we get from a scheduling alliance?

Better marquees. Tbh, I think the B12 gets the better end of this deal. None of the B12 names really bring much of a draw outside of our region. Many of the PAC names do, but their fans don’t tune in like ours do for the most part.

Prob some advantages regarding tv time slots for the PAC, but I dunno.

Just spitballing.

[Stupid Fitz]

The PAC has seemed like our best bet for a lifeline.  They're separated geographically from the rest of the conferences and don't have alot of options unless they want to to be playing coast-to-coast across 4 times zones.  Maybe the CA schools can be OK with going to KS once in awhile if it prevents them from having to play in the Eastern time zone several times a year.

True, but they should merge with the Big 10 and call it a day. That makes way more sense to me. Early Big 10 games then later PAC games. They have the tv all day and they already play a lot of crossover games anyway. I'd be surprised if they don't do that as opposed to throwing Big 12 teams a lifeline.

[KITNfury]

Yea don't see any way we're not swimming in crap forever after this. Wonder if a TV partner would give a bigger contract to us if every school schedules at least one marquee game out of conference every year. Probably needs to be 2, with 4 total ooc games. But whatever, the TV people could compile a list of schools that qualify. Basically keeps the remaining 8 schools playing each other and a big name or 2 just like we did with OU/TX.

[Trim]

The Big 12 orphans supply the Pac 12 with fans who give a eff. It’s a smart merger.

[WildcatNkilt]

Very smart merger.  Brings west coast games to early afternoon and keeps it away from early morning games. 

[Houstoncat93]

I really think the only way a merger with the PAC happens is if one or two other unlikely shoes drop first (i.e B10 steals top level PAC or something). If the only move is OU/UT to SEC then no need for PAC to do anything.

[PurpleOil]

phog is now saying with absolute certainty that they are going to the big 10. It's a party over there, but I haven't seen anything posted outside of there yet.

[chum1]

I think the PAC would be eager to make a deal with the Big 12 if it got them significantly more money. But I don't see how a deal would be able to do that.

[MadCat]

phog is now saying with absolute certainty that they are going to the big 10. It's a party over there, but I haven't seen anything posted outside of there yet.

And we thought the new airport terminal wasn't that big of a deal...

[Spracne]

phog is now saying with absolute certainty that they are going to the big 10. It's a party over there, but I haven't seen anything posted outside of there yet.

And we thought the new airport terminal wasn't that big of a deal...

I may have played a small role in this..

[WildcatNkilt]

I really think the only way a merger with the PAC happens is if one or two other unlikely shoes drop first (i.e B10 steals top level PAC or something). If the only move is OU/UT to SEC then no need for PAC to do anything.

I don't agree with this because up until now the Big 12 was in better shape than the PAC 12.  PAC 12 also knew they weren't going to pick off any teams from the Big 12.  Now each conference is in a situation where a merge would be a win/win.  I think people aren't considering the value add (and overall increased interest) in the PAC 12 conference in both basketball and football if a merge happened.  They are only using the data that exists which isolates west coast and midwest viewing the current, dull (championship poor) conferences. 

The 4 states the Big 8 teams would come from (minus WVU) adds 40 million people.  Hell if I was PAC 12 I would dump WVU and add Houston.  That would give PAC 12 every major market in Texas and really mind eff UT and A&M.  Success drives $$.  If all of a sudden PAC 12 takes over as the championship conference for the next 20 years all this crap doesn't matter.   

     

[Houstoncat93]

I really think the only way a merger with the PAC happens is if one or two other unlikely shoes drop first (i.e B10 steals top level PAC or something). If the only move is OU/UT to SEC then no need for PAC to do anything.

I don't agree with this because up until now the Big 12 was in better shape than the PAC 12.  PAC 12 also knew they weren't going to pick off any teams from the Big 12.  Now each conference is in a situation where a merge would be a win/win.  I think people aren't considering the value add (and overall increased interest) in the PAC 12 conference in both basketball and football if a merge happened.  They are only using the data that exists which isolates west coast and midwest viewing the current, dull (championship poor) conferences. 

The 4 states the Big 8 teams would come from (minus WVU) adds 40 million people.  Hell if I was PAC 12 I would dump WVU and add Houston.  That would give PAC 12 every major market in Texas and really mind eff UT and A&M.  Success drives $$.  If all of a sudden PAC 12 takes over as the championship conference for the next 20 years all this crap doesn't matter.   

     

We know the value of the remaining 8 is somewhere around $14 million per school (see testimony at Texas Senate yesterday).  The PAC distribution were slightly behind ours so some back of the napkin math means the value add you mention would need to be worth $12 - $16ish million to be worth it.  I agree with you statement it would add value but I would be very surprise if it added anywhere near that much.  If it did then some sort of merger\alliance would have happened years ago to keep up with the SEC\B10

[GregKSU1027]

Friend of the blog Bob Strawn, is a fan of the move to the PAC 16.

https://twitter.com/strawny/status/1422603364328787972?s=21


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['taterblast]

Jon Wefald will say this was his idea

[sonofdaxjones]

As of right now, the Big 12 has a crisis of prestige.   That's it.    This can be overcome, to what extent, we'll just have to wait and see.   It could be terminal, but it's been caught early and is highly treatable.

The Pac - 12 has internal bleeding.   Two P12 athletic departments are bankrupt and only stay afloat because the academic side of their school is covering the debts the athletic department(s) cannot cover.  At one school, those debts are going to grow to $40 million a year. 

They have the worst TV deal, they have terrible TV numbers and their core founding schools are in malaise.   Multiple programs have NCAA sanctions pending.

['taterblast]

Jon Wefald will say this was his idea

https://www.oklahoman.com/article/5624121/ex-kansas-state-president-suggests-big-12pac-12-alliance

[catastrophe]

As of right now, the Big 12 has a crisis of prestige.   That's it.    This can be overcome, to what extent, we'll just have to wait and see.   It could be terminal, but it's been caught early and is highly treatable.

The Pac - 12 has internal bleeding.   Two P12 athletic departments are bankrupt and only stay afloat because the academic side of their school is covering the debts the athletic department(s) cannot cover.  At one school, those debts are going to grow to $40 million a year. 

They have the worst TV deal, they have terrible TV numbers and their core founding schools are in malaise.   Multiple programs have NCAA sanctions pending.

I think I agree with this, but staying put is a real prisoners’ dilemma with all remaining schools expecting the others are trying to cut their own deals.

[yoga-like_abana]

https://mobile.twitter.com/TXSportsLife/status/1422368368682754048?s=01 probably been posted but hilarious burn


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[Winters]

This will be us when there is a Pac/Big merger but they are only taking four teams.

[mocat]

was Mike Vernon around for cigars 1.0?

[Dugout DickStone]

As of right now, the Big 12 has a crisis of prestige.   That's it.    This can be overcome, to what extent, we'll just have to wait and see.   It could be terminal, but it's been caught early and is highly treatable.

The Pac - 12 has internal bleeding.   Two P12 athletic departments are bankrupt and only stay afloat because the academic side of their school is covering the debts the athletic department(s) cannot cover.  At one school, those debts are going to grow to $40 million a year. 

They have the worst TV deal, they have terrible TV numbers and their core founding schools are in malaise.   Multiple programs have NCAA sanctions pending.

I think I agree with this, but staying put is a real prisoners’ dilemma with all remaining schools expecting the others are trying to cut their own deals.

Add 4 and cash those checks.