the conference is still fragile because of MU. That's it. They are, imo, on the Big 10's expansion list and MU would leave in a heartbeat for the big 10.
yes, they're the only school left that wants out. no one wants them though. the big 10 would lol in their face (already did actually). the only risk is that every eastern team shoots the sec down and they fall back to mu. not sure mu would even go to the sec though. the sec is no big 10.
I feel confident that any Big East school would bail for the SEC. Therefore, I think WVU will ultimately be the choice for #14.
I know exactly what you're saying about the optimal scenario is BYU and staying at ten. I think we need to go on the offensive and make a sweet offer to Louisville should WVU accept.
I know that I'll get LOL'ed, but we need to cut the Big East off at the knees as a matter of survival. That said, either us our Houston will ultimately take them. They are undergoing massive athletic complex renovations (football and basketball), and they are the second largest enrollment in the state of Texas after the UT system. No, they aren't the sexiest pick, but they are going to be in a BCS conference eventually, and the most likely place for them to land is the Big East (IMO). Taking them as a preemptive strike with BYU and Louisville will accomplish two things in my opinion:
1) It removes a conference member and a potential conference member from the Big East making them the most unstable and weakest BCS conference (without a doubt)
2) It gives the Big 12 a very easy choice for a sixth South division school. Houston would be so glad to join the BCS, they wouldn't mind going through that gauntlet. A weaker North division would be more enticing for Louisville and BYU to join, as well as getting Louisville in a basketball division with the stronger of the two divisions in basketball.
I think if we get aggressive and offer Louisville tomorrow, we won't get them. We need to get BYU in the fold first. We also need to bank on the SEC taking WVU. However, if that happens, I think Louisville is a very possible grab.