Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Houstoncat93]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1565810691855958017?t=PmBrH-ZjAatJMJnQ8c3sqA&s=19

[catastrophe]

So dumb but whatever. It’s the right decision. I’m still hesitant to leave it in the hands of the “rankers” vs having true auto bids but top 6 champs vs 6 more is pretty good. I hope a MW or Sunbelt team wins the first year.

[wetwillie]

Wins what the first year?

[catastrophe]

The national championship after expanding to 12.

[TheHamburglar]

https://twitter.com/PeteThamel/status/1565776964677279745

It’s my understanding if they add teams, ESPN gets sole rights to the playoff longer?  Isn’t this why no one truly wants a change, so ESPN can’t keep it all.  Could you imagine a national championship on a Saturday (that’s just one of my displeasures of the current cfp)?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

If changes are made during the current contract, ESPN has an exclusive negotiating window or first right at extending the whole under the new format. We’re close enough to the end that it sounds like they’re going to go to ESPN and tell them either to wave their rights to auto-renew/extending under the new format or they’ll just wait it out. Either way it’s going to market for 2026 & ESPN can decide if it’s worth it to negotiate for a 12-team playoff for 1 or 2 years or just wait too.

[wetwillie]

The national championship after expanding to 12.

That’s cute

[KITNfury]

So dumb but whatever. It’s the right decision. I’m still hesitant to leave it in the hands of the “rankers” vs having true auto bids but top 6 champs vs 6 more is pretty good. I hope a MW or Sunbelt team wins the first year.

I get what you're saying. I've always considered it figure skating bullshit, but the top 6 ranked conference champs would pretty much always put the Big 12 champ in. I can live with that.

[catastrophe]

So dumb but whatever. It’s the right decision. I’m still hesitant to leave it in the hands of the “rankers” vs having true auto bids but top 6 champs vs 6 more is pretty good. I hope a MW or Sunbelt team wins the first year.

I get what you're saying. I've always considered it figure skating bullshit, but the top 6 ranked conference champs would pretty much always put the Big 12 champ in. I can live with that.

For sure. But it would all but ensure the health of other power conferences if they received an auto bid as opposed to just giving one to the “top 6.”

[MakeItRain]

I bet it starts in '24 with ESPN keeping the final four until '26 then the final four will rotate between ESPN and Fox. Fox will be more than happy to let ESPN keep the last three games that they've already won the bid on, for exchange of some of the earlier rounds, they only have two bowl games now. Also with the Pac 12 being decimated, that clears the way for the Rose Bowl to be a permanent semifinal game.

The Big 10 will have whatever Pac teams they're taking and OU and UT will be in the SEC in '24. It will be a reset for the sport. I wouldn't doubt if the FBS exodus from the NCAA is done by then, it will be pretty easy, there isn't much left to shift away from. Enjoy this game against South Dakota, we probably won't be seeing them in football anymore.

[MakeItRain]

BYU is a damn mess.
https://twitter.com/kiki_solano/status/1565750641930096640

https://twitter.com/StaceyHarkey/status/1565827435441950720

[Houstoncat93]

I bet it starts in '24 with ESPN keeping the final four until '26 then the final four will rotate between ESPN and Fox. Fox will be more than happy to let ESPN keep the last three games that they've already won the bid on, for exchange of some of the earlier rounds, they only have two bowl games now. Also with the Pac 12 being decimated, that clears the way for the Rose Bowl to be a permanent semifinal game.

The Big 10 will have whatever Pac teams they're taking and OU and UT will be in the SEC in '24. It will be a reset for the sport. I wouldn't doubt if the FBS exodus from the NCAA is done by then, it will be pretty easy, there isn't much left to shift away from. Enjoy this game against South Dakota, we probably won't be seeing them in football anymore.

I think CBS and NBC will be in the rotation post '26. 

[TheHamburglar]

I think the quarterfinals stay with ESPN through 2025 if they expand. They already own the rights to those bowls through then.

I’ve already said that I don’t think the BigTen is as eager to expand in 2024. I don’t think Oregon & Washington grow the pie enough that the pieces get bigger for everyone, so think it’s a pretty hard sell. My gut is 60% they wait, 40% they expand again before the Pac has to re-up on a new contract. As I think about the playoff news more that could change though.

I’m curious how the expanded playoff pays out conferences. The P5 are losing their individually negotiated contracts with the Sugar, Orange & Rose. That allowed them to get a bulk of the playoff system money if they made the 4 team playoff or not. In the new system that goes away.

I have no idea where they go:

• Do the bigger conferences just say they get a guaranteed amount each (without having the Sugar, Rose & Orange to bake it into) & then give a smaller payout for each participant & an even smaller amount to each FBS conference for each member reaching the APR requirement.
• If they force a guarantee, do the BigTen & SEC demand a bigger guarantee than the ACC, Pac-12, Big12?
• Do they just say each of the conferences that gets an auto-bid get a big payout, then at-large get a much smaller payout?
• Do the BigTen & SEC say every participant gets an equal payout & that’s how they get more money out of it?

The payout structure is so fascinating to me because under the current system the low payouts for actual playoff participants eliminates the financial impact as part of the select process. Without having the 3 bowls to protect the majority of the money for the big conferences, I’m eager to see what they do & how soon they decide on it. Having it just tied to participants would corrupt the selection process & cause wild swinging windfalls to the AAC/MWC/Sun Belt.

I think the payout structure will play a big role in what happens to the Pac-12. It could help solidify them if the BigTen doesn’t come calling again or it could give UW/UO the ability to try to force such unequal playoff  money split it pisses off everyone else.

I could keep going & write an essay on this. I have a lot more thoughts & what-ifs that could make this pages long. I could sit & talk/debate with MIR about this for an hours.

[Katpappy]

No offense, but thanks for ending that conversation.  There is also a bunch of money to be made from the schools playing on home fields for the first games.  Actually, they could set it up like the FCS and play all the games on home-fields.  I don't think that will happen thou.

[Spracne]

Am I the only one that doesn't see the attraction to adding Washington? I don't think they'd add enough additional revenue.

[wetwillie]

It depends on which conference you are asking about them joining

[Spracne]

It depends on which conference you are asking about them joining

My bad. I meant to the big 10.

[wetwillie]

It depends on which conference you are asking about them joining

My bad. I meant to the big 10.

Then yea they won’t add enough to not dilute the overall pie. I don’t think there are even 5 non P2 teams left that would though. 

[Rage Against the McKee]

It depends on which conference you are asking about them joining

My bad. I meant to the big 10.

Then yea they won’t add enough to not dilute the overall pie. I don’t think there are even 5 non P2 teams left that would though.

I think maybe it's possible to substantially expand Big 10 revenue if networks don't have the PAC or ACC as fallback options, so it might make sense for the Big 10 to take Washington just to eliminate the PAC.

[Houstoncat93]

https://twitter.com/rltsports/status/1566462145323081728?t=sFmuvf0YT17GzWrigHvFGA&s=19

Retired President of Fox Sports. If that was equally distributed to all FBS teams it would be like 16 million each.

[Pete]

https://twitter.com/rltsports/status/1566462145323081728?t=sFmuvf0YT17GzWrigHvFGA&s=19

Retired President of Fox Sports. If that was equally distributed to all FBS teams it would be like 16 million each.

Of course there is no way in hell they’ll do that, but it’s an amazing stat.

[wetwillie]

lol can you imagine Wyoming getting a 16M check from the CFB?!  I think Sankey and Warren would literally murder someone before that happened.

[MakeItRain]

It depends on which conference you are asking about them joining

My bad. I meant to the big 10.

Then yea they won’t add enough to not dilute the overall pie. I don’t think there are even 5 non P2 teams left that would though.

I think maybe it's possible to substantially expand Big 10 revenue if networks don't have the PAC or ACC as fallback options, so it might make sense for the Big 10 to take Washington just to eliminate the PAC.

Are you guys forgetting that the Big 10 negotiated escalators for expansion in their media deal? It doesn't matter if they take The University of Washington or Washington University.

[KITNfury]

It depends on which conference you are asking about them joining

My bad. I meant to the big 10.

Then yea they won’t add enough to not dilute the overall pie. I don’t think there are even 5 non P2 teams left that would though.

I think maybe it's possible to substantially expand Big 10 revenue if networks don't have the PAC or ACC as fallback options, so it might make sense for the Big 10 to take Washington just to eliminate the PAC.

Are you guys forgetting that the Big 10 negotiated escalators for expansion in their media deal? It doesn't matter if they take The University of Washington or Washington University.

Can only imagine that escalators only matter for the existing contract. Once expired, a new reevaluation of the schools would happen.

[Houstoncat93]

https://theathletic.com/3565760/2022/09/05/college-football-playoff-12-teams-bcs?source=user-shared-article

Athletic did an analysis back to 1998 using BCS as a proxy for the selection committee. They have us in the playoffs 8 times which would tie us for 11th most overall.  That is more than Texas 😂 and tied for 2nd most in Big 12 with TCU.

[MakeItRain]

It depends on which conference you are asking about them joining

My bad. I meant to the big 10.

Then yea they won’t add enough to not dilute the overall pie. I don’t think there are even 5 non P2 teams left that would though.

I think maybe it's possible to substantially expand Big 10 revenue if networks don't have the PAC or ACC as fallback options, so it might make sense for the Big 10 to take Washington just to eliminate the PAC.

Are you guys forgetting that the Big 10 negotiated escalators for expansion in their media deal? It doesn't matter if they take The University of Washington or Washington University.

Can only imagine that escalators only matter for the existing contract. Once expired, a new reevaluation of the schools would happen.

Right, but they aren't going to go backwards after the next contract, just as they didn't with this one, the first after Rutgers and Maryland.