Smoke your cigars and enjoy the band while you can....

[Skipper44]

Oh, but that's never going to happen if a school from a conference like the SEC has to come over as a "junior member".   They'll want a full share right out of the gate, but i don't think the SEC has much in the way of exit fees, and they don't have a GOR.

I would think the SEC network will have some sort of GOR at ESPN's insistence.

[bws]

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility at all that 1 or 2 SEC schools may not be all that thrilled with the way things are playing out.   I think once the cold hard reality hits that while the SEC network will be lucrative, it will be no more lucrative and potentially less lucrative than the Tier I/II conference/Tier III school scenario you have in the Big 12.

It would not surprise me in the least to hear that a school like LSU called an asked some questions of the Big 12, the same with Arkansas.   If they move, they bring the entire state with them.   When that happens, you potentially get a "re-look" at the ESPN/FOX deal, and they get to go out and forge their own lucrative Tier III deal.   They immediately create the need for a Big 12 Championship game (more money) and create a balanced conference with just two divisions and no whacked out scheduling scenarios, and within their likely division the traveling is very easy.  For Arkansas it would be extremely easy. 

Probably not going to happen, but again, not that crazy to think about.

it's actually very crazy to think about

I don't think LSU would ever leave because of the long term rivalries. But i would not be surprised at all in 5-10 years if Arkansas, Nebraska, or even a Missouri started peering back toward the Big 12 if the money was close (and F Mizzou). Most Nebraska fans I know are pretty meh about the Big 10, and regular games against OU and Texas, and even their traditional Big 8 games like us are what get their fans blood going. Not Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota. They'll be real nostalgic for those games by 2020, especially if they continue to be mediocre.

[TheHamburglar]

I haven't posted it because its all fantasy, but if we ever go back to 12 I have an idea for divisions/pods.  Two six team divisions with three four team pods. Create a pod of the four Texas schools, the four Kansas/Oklahoma schools, and ISU/WVU/2more. Put two teams from each pod in each division.  Put OU and UT in the same division. Play a nine game schedule and play your division, the other two in your pod and two from the other division. Rotate those other two so you play each twice every four years, with a home and away game evey four years, just like the old cross division setup with eight games.  It allows OU-UT every year, all the Texas schools play each other every year, allows Kansas/Oklahoma schools to redevelop their rivalries, and the same access to Texas for all non-Texas schools by alternating every other year between one and two games in Texas. Balance the divisions by putting the three next best teams in the non OU/UT division.  Like I said, this is just a theory in the 20% chance the Big12 expands soon, but in the Arky/LSU fantasy they would fit perfectly in it and it solves most if the pressing issues if going away from north/south divisions.

[steve dave]

nebraska fans are much, much, much too butthurt about texas to want to come back. however, if the old big 8 ever got the band back together their fans would go bonkers.

[sonofdaxjones]

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility at all that 1 or 2 SEC schools may not be all that thrilled with the way things are playing out.   I think once the cold hard reality hits that while the SEC network will be lucrative, it will be no more lucrative and potentially less lucrative than the Tier I/II conference/Tier III school scenario you have in the Big 12.

It would not surprise me in the least to hear that a school like LSU called an asked some questions of the Big 12, the same with Arkansas.   If they move, they bring the entire state with them.   When that happens, you potentially get a "re-look" at the ESPN/FOX deal, and they get to go out and forge their own lucrative Tier III deal.   They immediately create the need for a Big 12 Championship game (more money) and create a balanced conference with just two divisions and no whacked out scheduling scenarios, and within their likely division the traveling is very easy.  For Arkansas it would be extremely easy. 

Probably not going to happen, but again, not that crazy to think about.

it's actually very crazy to think about

4 years ago something like Maryland to the ACC would have been considered insane by most people, so in this new era, it's only a little crazy.

   

[OregonSmock]

nebraska fans are much, much, much too butthurt about texas to want to come back. however, if the old big 8 ever got the band back together their fans would go bonkers.

I'd love to go back to the old Big Eight, and maybe add Arkansas and Iowa to the mix to make it an even ten teams.  It will never happen, but it would be the best thing for the fans. 

[eastcat]

nebraska fans are much, much, much too butthurt about texas to want to come back. however, if the old big 8 ever got the band back together their fans would go bonkers.

I'd love to go back to the old Big Eight, and maybe add Arkansas and Iowa to the mix to make it an even ten teams.  It will never happen, but it would be the best thing for the fans.

Agreed Beems, that would be a pretty awesome conf. 

[pissclams]

nebraska fans are much, much, much too butthurt about texas to want to come back. however, if the old big 8 ever got the band back together their fans would go bonkers.

I'd love to go back to the old Big Eight, and maybe add Arkansas and Iowa to the mix to make it an even ten teams.  It will never happen, but it would be the best thing for the fans.

Agreed Beems, that would be a pretty awesome conf. 

the current big 12 has been pretty good to ksu fans.  go cats.

[WildcatNkilt]

nebraska fans are much, much, much too butthurt about texas to want to come back. however, if the old big 8 ever got the band back together their fans would go bonkers.

I'd love to go back to the old Big Eight, and maybe add Arkansas and Iowa to the mix to make it an even ten teams.  It will never happen, but it would be the best thing for the fans.

Agreed Beems, that would be a pretty awesome conf. 

the current big 12 has been pretty good to ksu fans.  go cats.

I do not want Colorado back in this conference. 

[Panjandrum]

Fun Fact:

Since the Big 12 first distributed revenue back in 2007, we've seen, on average, a 9.3% increase in distribution, year over year.  This past year, we saw an increase of 5.9%.  Here is what conference revenue could look like over the next 12 years at various percentages (exculdes T3):

5% Year Over Year:

2016   $229,209,750.00   $22,920,975.00
2017   $240,670,237.50   $24,067,023.75
2018   $252,703,749.38   $25,270,374.94
2019   $265,338,936.84   $26,533,893.68
2020   $278,605,883.69   $27,860,588.37
2021   $292,536,177.87   $29,253,617.79
2022   $307,162,986.76   $30,716,298.68
2023   $322,521,136.10   $32,252,113.61
2024   $338,647,192.91   $33,864,719.29

6%

2016   $235,821,168.00   $23,582,116.80
2017   $249,970,438.08   $24,997,043.81
2018   $264,968,664.36   $26,496,866.44
2019   $280,866,784.23   $28,086,678.42
2020   $297,718,791.28   $29,771,879.13
2021   $315,581,918.76   $31,558,191.88
2022   $334,516,833.88   $33,451,683.39
2023   $354,587,843.92   $35,458,784.39
2024   $375,863,114.55   $37,586,311.46

7%

2016   $242,558,514.00   $24,255,851.40
2017   $259,537,609.98   $25,953,761.00
2018   $277,705,242.68   $27,770,524.27
2019   $297,144,609.67   $29,714,460.97
2020   $317,944,732.34   $31,794,473.23
2021   $340,200,863.61   $34,020,086.36
2022   $364,014,924.06   $36,401,492.41
2023   $389,495,968.74   $38,949,596.87
2024   $416,760,686.56   $41,676,068.66

8%

2016   $249,422,976.00   $24,942,297.60
2017   $269,376,814.08   $26,937,681.41
2018   $290,926,959.21   $29,092,695.92
2019   $314,201,115.94   $31,420,111.59
2020   $339,337,205.22   $33,933,720.52
2021   $366,484,181.64   $36,648,418.16
2022   $395,802,916.17   $39,580,291.62
2023   $427,467,149.46   $42,746,714.95
2024   $461,664,521.42   $46,166,452.14

9% (close to historical average)

2016   $256,415,742.00   $25,641,574.20
2017   $279,493,158.78   $27,949,315.88
2018   $304,647,543.07   $30,464,754.31
2019   $332,065,821.95   $33,206,582.19
2020   $361,951,745.92   $36,195,174.59
2021   $394,527,403.05   $39,452,740.31
2022   $430,034,869.33   $43,003,486.93
2023   $468,738,007.57   $46,873,800.76
2024   $510,924,428.25   $51,092,442.83

Compare to the SEC over that time frame (9%):

2013   $289,400,000.00   $20,671,428.57
2014   $315,446,000.00   $22,531,857.14
2015   $343,836,140.00   $24,559,724.29
2016   $374,781,392.60   $26,770,099.47
2017   $408,511,717.93   $29,179,408.42
2018   $445,277,772.55   $31,805,555.18
2019   $485,352,772.08   $34,668,055.15
2020   $529,034,521.56   $37,788,180.11
2021   $576,647,628.51   $41,189,116.32
2022   $628,545,915.07   $44,896,136.79
2023   $685,115,047.43   $48,936,789.10
2024   $746,775,401.70   $53,341,100.12

Assuming that we all still make a few million more in revenue due to T3, we'll make more than the SEC by the end of our TV contracts presuming we both grow revenues, on average, at approximately the same rate.  Which, honestly, may not be far fetched because ESPN owns the SEC's content now, and there isn't much flexibility to generate revenue outside of their network contracts like we do with T3.

The major difference here is the fact that for the SEC to match our revenues at 9%, they have to make over $200 million more, annually, than the Big 12 due to the number of teams in conference.  In fact, for every dollar we make, they have to make an additional forty cents just to keep up with us.  While their revenues have been pretty eye popping, the scale at which they have to grow is pretty astronomical.

Again, I don't think it's absurd to believe that we'll be in such an advantageous financial position in 12 years that disgruntled members of other conferences will look to us for a couple of spots.  Especially since the model, at this point in time (and probably will for the foreseeable future) sees twelve teams is the optimal number for revenue maximization given the right mix.

[OregonSmock]

Fun Fact:

Since the Big 12 first distributed revenue back in 2007, we've seen, on average, a 9.3% increase in distribution, year over year.  This past year, we saw an increase of 5.9%.  Here is what conference revenue could look like over the next 12 years at various percentages (exculdes T3):

5% Year Over Year:

2016   $229,209,750.00   $22,920,975.00
2017   $240,670,237.50   $24,067,023.75
2018   $252,703,749.38   $25,270,374.94
2019   $265,338,936.84   $26,533,893.68
2020   $278,605,883.69   $27,860,588.37
2021   $292,536,177.87   $29,253,617.79
2022   $307,162,986.76   $30,716,298.68
2023   $322,521,136.10   $32,252,113.61
2024   $338,647,192.91   $33,864,719.29

6%

2016   $235,821,168.00   $23,582,116.80
2017   $249,970,438.08   $24,997,043.81
2018   $264,968,664.36   $26,496,866.44
2019   $280,866,784.23   $28,086,678.42
2020   $297,718,791.28   $29,771,879.13
2021   $315,581,918.76   $31,558,191.88
2022   $334,516,833.88   $33,451,683.39
2023   $354,587,843.92   $35,458,784.39
2024   $375,863,114.55   $37,586,311.46

7%

2016   $242,558,514.00   $24,255,851.40
2017   $259,537,609.98   $25,953,761.00
2018   $277,705,242.68   $27,770,524.27
2019   $297,144,609.67   $29,714,460.97
2020   $317,944,732.34   $31,794,473.23
2021   $340,200,863.61   $34,020,086.36
2022   $364,014,924.06   $36,401,492.41
2023   $389,495,968.74   $38,949,596.87
2024   $416,760,686.56   $41,676,068.66

8%

2016   $249,422,976.00   $24,942,297.60
2017   $269,376,814.08   $26,937,681.41
2018   $290,926,959.21   $29,092,695.92
2019   $314,201,115.94   $31,420,111.59
2020   $339,337,205.22   $33,933,720.52
2021   $366,484,181.64   $36,648,418.16
2022   $395,802,916.17   $39,580,291.62
2023   $427,467,149.46   $42,746,714.95
2024   $461,664,521.42   $46,166,452.14

9% (close to historical average)

2016   $256,415,742.00   $25,641,574.20
2017   $279,493,158.78   $27,949,315.88
2018   $304,647,543.07   $30,464,754.31
2019   $332,065,821.95   $33,206,582.19
2020   $361,951,745.92   $36,195,174.59
2021   $394,527,403.05   $39,452,740.31
2022   $430,034,869.33   $43,003,486.93
2023   $468,738,007.57   $46,873,800.76
2024   $510,924,428.25   $51,092,442.83

Compare to the SEC over that time frame (9%):

2013   $289,400,000.00   $20,671,428.57
2014   $315,446,000.00   $22,531,857.14
2015   $343,836,140.00   $24,559,724.29
2016   $374,781,392.60   $26,770,099.47
2017   $408,511,717.93   $29,179,408.42
2018   $445,277,772.55   $31,805,555.18
2019   $485,352,772.08   $34,668,055.15
2020   $529,034,521.56   $37,788,180.11
2021   $576,647,628.51   $41,189,116.32
2022   $628,545,915.07   $44,896,136.79
2023   $685,115,047.43   $48,936,789.10
2024   $746,775,401.70   $53,341,100.12

Assuming that we all still make a few million more in revenue due to T3, we'll make more than the SEC by the end of our TV contracts presuming we both grow revenues, on average, at approximately the same rate.  Which, honestly, may not be far fetched because ESPN owns the SEC's content now, and there isn't much flexibility to generate revenue outside of their network contracts like we do with T3.

The major difference here is the fact that for the SEC to match our revenues at 9%, they have to make over $200 million more, annually, than the Big 12 due to the number of teams in conference.  In fact, for every dollar we make, they have to make an additional forty cents just to keep up with us.  While their revenues have been pretty eye popping, the scale at which they have to grow is pretty astronomical.

Again, I don't think it's absurd to believe that we'll be in such an advantageous financial position in 12 years that disgruntled members of other conferences will look to us for a couple of spots.  Especially since the model, at this point in time (and probably will for the foreseeable future) sees twelve teams is the optimal number for revenue maximization given the right mix.

Great post.  I need to know, though, are you using the real interest rate, or the nominal interest rate? 


 

[steve dave]

Fun Fact:

Since the Big 12 first distributed revenue back in 2007, we've seen, on average, a 9.3% increase in distribution, year over year.  This past year, we saw an increase of 5.9%.  Here is what conference revenue could look like over the next 12 years at various percentages (exculdes T3):

5% Year Over Year:

2016   $229,209,750.00   $22,920,975.00
2017   $240,670,237.50   $24,067,023.75
2018   $252,703,749.38   $25,270,374.94
2019   $265,338,936.84   $26,533,893.68
2020   $278,605,883.69   $27,860,588.37
2021   $292,536,177.87   $29,253,617.79
2022   $307,162,986.76   $30,716,298.68
2023   $322,521,136.10   $32,252,113.61
2024   $338,647,192.91   $33,864,719.29

6%

2016   $235,821,168.00   $23,582,116.80
2017   $249,970,438.08   $24,997,043.81
2018   $264,968,664.36   $26,496,866.44
2019   $280,866,784.23   $28,086,678.42
2020   $297,718,791.28   $29,771,879.13
2021   $315,581,918.76   $31,558,191.88
2022   $334,516,833.88   $33,451,683.39
2023   $354,587,843.92   $35,458,784.39
2024   $375,863,114.55   $37,586,311.46

7%

2016   $242,558,514.00   $24,255,851.40
2017   $259,537,609.98   $25,953,761.00
2018   $277,705,242.68   $27,770,524.27
2019   $297,144,609.67   $29,714,460.97
2020   $317,944,732.34   $31,794,473.23
2021   $340,200,863.61   $34,020,086.36
2022   $364,014,924.06   $36,401,492.41
2023   $389,495,968.74   $38,949,596.87
2024   $416,760,686.56   $41,676,068.66

8%

2016   $249,422,976.00   $24,942,297.60
2017   $269,376,814.08   $26,937,681.41
2018   $290,926,959.21   $29,092,695.92
2019   $314,201,115.94   $31,420,111.59
2020   $339,337,205.22   $33,933,720.52
2021   $366,484,181.64   $36,648,418.16
2022   $395,802,916.17   $39,580,291.62
2023   $427,467,149.46   $42,746,714.95
2024   $461,664,521.42   $46,166,452.14

9% (close to historical average)

2016   $256,415,742.00   $25,641,574.20
2017   $279,493,158.78   $27,949,315.88
2018   $304,647,543.07   $30,464,754.31
2019   $332,065,821.95   $33,206,582.19
2020   $361,951,745.92   $36,195,174.59
2021   $394,527,403.05   $39,452,740.31
2022   $430,034,869.33   $43,003,486.93
2023   $468,738,007.57   $46,873,800.76
2024   $510,924,428.25   $51,092,442.83

Compare to the SEC over that time frame (9%):

2013   $289,400,000.00   $20,671,428.57
2014   $315,446,000.00   $22,531,857.14
2015   $343,836,140.00   $24,559,724.29
2016   $374,781,392.60   $26,770,099.47
2017   $408,511,717.93   $29,179,408.42
2018   $445,277,772.55   $31,805,555.18
2019   $485,352,772.08   $34,668,055.15
2020   $529,034,521.56   $37,788,180.11
2021   $576,647,628.51   $41,189,116.32
2022   $628,545,915.07   $44,896,136.79
2023   $685,115,047.43   $48,936,789.10
2024   $746,775,401.70   $53,341,100.12

Assuming that we all still make a few million more in revenue due to T3, we'll make more than the SEC by the end of our TV contracts presuming we both grow revenues, on average, at approximately the same rate.  Which, honestly, may not be far fetched because ESPN owns the SEC's content now, and there isn't much flexibility to generate revenue outside of their network contracts like we do with T3.

The major difference here is the fact that for the SEC to match our revenues at 9%, they have to make over $200 million more, annually, than the Big 12 due to the number of teams in conference.  In fact, for every dollar we make, they have to make an additional forty cents just to keep up with us.  While their revenues have been pretty eye popping, the scale at which they have to grow is pretty astronomical.

Again, I don't think it's absurd to believe that we'll be in such an advantageous financial position in 12 years that disgruntled members of other conferences will look to us for a couple of spots.  Especially since the model, at this point in time (and probably will for the foreseeable future) sees twelve teams is the optimal number for revenue maximization given the right mix.

Great post.  I need to know, though, are you using the real interest rate, or the nominal interest rate? 


 

holy crap

[KITNfury]

The reason we won't get SEC schools is not because of dollars or any other tangent, it's because they have a ridiculous amount of conference pride. The only way it would even be possible to peel away their members would be to somehow get conference X perceived as a better conference over many years. At that point, there would be a chance.....maybe.

[pissclams]

Fun Fact:

Since the Big 12 first distributed revenue back in 2007, we've seen, on average, a 9.3% increase in distribution, year over year.  This past year, we saw an increase of 5.9%.  Here is what conference revenue could look like over the next 12 years at various percentages (exculdes T3):

5% Year Over Year:

2016   $229,209,750.00   $22,920,975.00
2017   $240,670,237.50   $24,067,023.75
2018   $252,703,749.38   $25,270,374.94
2019   $265,338,936.84   $26,533,893.68
2020   $278,605,883.69   $27,860,588.37
2021   $292,536,177.87   $29,253,617.79
2022   $307,162,986.76   $30,716,298.68
2023   $322,521,136.10   $32,252,113.61
2024   $338,647,192.91   $33,864,719.29

6%

2016   $235,821,168.00   $23,582,116.80
2017   $249,970,438.08   $24,997,043.81
2018   $264,968,664.36   $26,496,866.44
2019   $280,866,784.23   $28,086,678.42
2020   $297,718,791.28   $29,771,879.13
2021   $315,581,918.76   $31,558,191.88
2022   $334,516,833.88   $33,451,683.39
2023   $354,587,843.92   $35,458,784.39
2024   $375,863,114.55   $37,586,311.46

7%

2016   $242,558,514.00   $24,255,851.40
2017   $259,537,609.98   $25,953,761.00
2018   $277,705,242.68   $27,770,524.27
2019   $297,144,609.67   $29,714,460.97
2020   $317,944,732.34   $31,794,473.23
2021   $340,200,863.61   $34,020,086.36
2022   $364,014,924.06   $36,401,492.41
2023   $389,495,968.74   $38,949,596.87
2024   $416,760,686.56   $41,676,068.66

8%

2016   $249,422,976.00   $24,942,297.60
2017   $269,376,814.08   $26,937,681.41
2018   $290,926,959.21   $29,092,695.92
2019   $314,201,115.94   $31,420,111.59
2020   $339,337,205.22   $33,933,720.52
2021   $366,484,181.64   $36,648,418.16
2022   $395,802,916.17   $39,580,291.62
2023   $427,467,149.46   $42,746,714.95
2024   $461,664,521.42   $46,166,452.14

9% (close to historical average)

2016   $256,415,742.00   $25,641,574.20
2017   $279,493,158.78   $27,949,315.88
2018   $304,647,543.07   $30,464,754.31
2019   $332,065,821.95   $33,206,582.19
2020   $361,951,745.92   $36,195,174.59
2021   $394,527,403.05   $39,452,740.31
2022   $430,034,869.33   $43,003,486.93
2023   $468,738,007.57   $46,873,800.76
2024   $510,924,428.25   $51,092,442.83

Compare to the SEC over that time frame (9%):

2013   $289,400,000.00   $20,671,428.57
2014   $315,446,000.00   $22,531,857.14
2015   $343,836,140.00   $24,559,724.29
2016   $374,781,392.60   $26,770,099.47
2017   $408,511,717.93   $29,179,408.42
2018   $445,277,772.55   $31,805,555.18
2019   $485,352,772.08   $34,668,055.15
2020   $529,034,521.56   $37,788,180.11
2021   $576,647,628.51   $41,189,116.32
2022   $628,545,915.07   $44,896,136.79
2023   $685,115,047.43   $48,936,789.10
2024   $746,775,401.70   $53,341,100.12

Assuming that we all still make a few million more in revenue due to T3, we'll make more than the SEC by the end of our TV contracts presuming we both grow revenues, on average, at approximately the same rate.  Which, honestly, may not be far fetched because ESPN owns the SEC's content now, and there isn't much flexibility to generate revenue outside of their network contracts like we do with T3.

The major difference here is the fact that for the SEC to match our revenues at 9%, they have to make over $200 million more, annually, than the Big 12 due to the number of teams in conference.  In fact, for every dollar we make, they have to make an additional forty cents just to keep up with us.  While their revenues have been pretty eye popping, the scale at which they have to grow is pretty astronomical.

Again, I don't think it's absurd to believe that we'll be in such an advantageous financial position in 12 years that disgruntled members of other conferences will look to us for a couple of spots.  Especially since the model, at this point in time (and probably will for the foreseeable future) sees twelve teams is the optimal number for revenue maximization given the right mix.

Great post.  I need to know, though, are you using the real interest rate, or the nominal interest rate? 


 

[Panjandrum]

Straight-line growth rate.

[michigancat]

I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility at all that 1 or 2 SEC schools may not be all that thrilled with the way things are playing out.   I think once the cold hard reality hits that while the SEC network will be lucrative, it will be no more lucrative and potentially less lucrative than the Tier I/II conference/Tier III school scenario you have in the Big 12.

It would not surprise me in the least to hear that a school like LSU called an asked some questions of the Big 12, the same with Arkansas.   If they move, they bring the entire state with them.   When that happens, you potentially get a "re-look" at the ESPN/FOX deal, and they get to go out and forge their own lucrative Tier III deal.   They immediately create the need for a Big 12 Championship game (more money) and create a balanced conference with just two divisions and no whacked out scheduling scenarios, and within their likely division the traveling is very easy.  For Arkansas it would be extremely easy. 

Probably not going to happen, but again, not that crazy to think about.

it's actually very crazy to think about

I don't think LSU would ever leave because of the long term rivalries. But i would not be surprised at all in 5-10 years if Arkansas, Nebraska, or even a Missouri started peering back toward the Big 12 if the money was close (and F Mizzou). Most Nebraska fans I know are pretty meh about the Big 10, and regular games against OU and Texas, and even their traditional Big 8 games like us are what get their fans blood going. Not Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota. They'll be real nostalgic for those games by 2020, especially if they continue to be mediocre.

wrong, the money was always going to be close.

["storm"nut]

The reason we won't get SEC schools is not because of dollars or any other tangent, it's because they have a ridiculous amount of conference pride. The only way it would even be possible to peel away their members would be to somehow get conference X perceived as a better conference over many years. At that point, there would be a chance.....maybe.

IMSO LSU and Arkansas were the red headed step children (along with SC and Vandy) of the SEC before Mizzu and Cult Aggie joined. I think there would be more interest in them leaving than one want to say.

[Panjandrum]

The reason we won't get SEC schools is not because of dollars or any other tangent, it's because they have a ridiculous amount of conference pride. The only way it would even be possible to peel away their members would be to somehow get conference X perceived as a better conference over many years. At that point, there would be a chance.....maybe.

IMSO LSU and Arkansas were the red headed step children (along with SC and Vandy) of the SEC before Mizzu and Cult Aggie joined. I think there would be more interest in them leaving than one want to say.

If anything is ever going to make either of them want to leave, it's the fact that the SEC is going to ride A&M very, very hard to cut into the Texas market.  I can easily see a situation where A&M and Missouri are given preferential treatment because they are both bigger markets than Louisiana and Arkansas.

However, the problem for all of the schools now in bed with ESPN is the fact that they're not going to want to lose cable subscriber fees in two whole states.  If ESPN threw the kitchen sink at the ACC to keep them together, they will move Heaven and Earth to keep the SEC together in it's current format.

[steve dave]

yeah, SEC teams leaving for the Big 12 makes sense.

["storm"nut]

The reason we won't get SEC schools is not because of dollars or any other tangent, it's because they have a ridiculous amount of conference pride. The only way it would even be possible to peel away their members would be to somehow get conference X perceived as a better conference over many years. At that point, there would be a chance.....maybe.

IMSO LSU and Arkansas were the red headed step children (along with SC and Vandy) of the SEC before Mizzu and Cult Aggie joined. I think there would be more interest in them leaving than one want to say.

If anything is ever going to make either of them want to leave, it's the fact that the SEC is going to ride A&M very, very hard to cut into the Texas market.  I can easily see a situation where A&M and Missouri are given preferential treatment because they are both bigger markets than Louisiana and Arkansas.

However, the problem for all of the schools now in bed with ESPN is the fact that they're not going to want to lose cable subscriber fees in two whole states.  If ESPN threw the kitchen sink at the ACC to keep them together, they will move Heaven and Earth to keep the SEC together in it's current format.

And ESPN I think regrets that. They threw a lot of good money for very little inventory.

[Panjandrum]

The reason we won't get SEC schools is not because of dollars or any other tangent, it's because they have a ridiculous amount of conference pride. The only way it would even be possible to peel away their members would be to somehow get conference X perceived as a better conference over many years. At that point, there would be a chance.....maybe.

IMSO LSU and Arkansas were the red headed step children (along with SC and Vandy) of the SEC before Mizzu and Cult Aggie joined. I think there would be more interest in them leaving than one want to say.

If anything is ever going to make either of them want to leave, it's the fact that the SEC is going to ride A&M very, very hard to cut into the Texas market.  I can easily see a situation where A&M and Missouri are given preferential treatment because they are both bigger markets than Louisiana and Arkansas.

However, the problem for all of the schools now in bed with ESPN is the fact that they're not going to want to lose cable subscriber fees in two whole states.  If ESPN threw the kitchen sink at the ACC to keep them together, they will move Heaven and Earth to keep the SEC together in it's current format.

And ESPN I think regrets that. They threw a lot of good money for very little inventory.

They wanted it bad enough that they deemed it necessary to overpay.  So, they probably don't regret it all that much or else the wouldn't have done it.

[Skipper44]

The reason we won't get SEC schools is not because of dollars or any other tangent, it's because they have a ridiculous amount of conference pride. The only way it would even be possible to peel away their members would be to somehow get conference X perceived as a better conference over many years. At that point, there would be a chance.....maybe.

You are correct, OSU or us winning the NC would of helped a great amount in that regard. 

If anything is ever going to make either of them want to leave, it's the fact that the SEC is going to ride A&M very, very hard to cut into the Texas market.  I can easily see a situation where A&M and Missouri are given preferential treatment because they are both bigger markets than Louisiana and Arkansas.

However, the problem for all of the schools now in bed with ESPN is the fact that they're not going to want to lose cable subscriber fees in two whole states.  If ESPN threw the kitchen sink at the ACC to keep them together, they will move Heaven and Earth to keep the SEC together in it's current format.

there are rumors that A&M could replace Ark as LSU's annual Thanksgiving opponent.  Would Texas dangle a UT-Ark T-day matchup as a carrot to get them into the Big 12?

[Panjandrum]

The reason we won't get SEC schools is not because of dollars or any other tangent, it's because they have a ridiculous amount of conference pride. The only way it would even be possible to peel away their members would be to somehow get conference X perceived as a better conference over many years. At that point, there would be a chance.....maybe.

You are correct, OSU or us winning the NC would of helped a great amount in that regard. 

If anything is ever going to make either of them want to leave, it's the fact that the SEC is going to ride A&M very, very hard to cut into the Texas market.  I can easily see a situation where A&M and Missouri are given preferential treatment because they are both bigger markets than Louisiana and Arkansas.

However, the problem for all of the schools now in bed with ESPN is the fact that they're not going to want to lose cable subscriber fees in two whole states.  If ESPN threw the kitchen sink at the ACC to keep them together, they will move Heaven and Earth to keep the SEC together in it's current format.

there are rumors that A&M could replace Ark as LSU's annual Thanksgiving opponent.  Would Texas dangle a UT-Ark T-day matchup as a carrot to get them into the Big 12?

Probably not.  Texas is going to rotate Thanksgiving opponents with the other Texas Big 12 schools on Thanksgiving.  It was TCU last year, Tech this year, and Baylor next.

There was also rumor that Texas wanted to start a Thanksgiving game with ND the years USC played in South Bend since that game is played in October.  I don't know whatever came of that.

[deputy dawg]

Talking about teams leaving the SEC for the Big 12 is just plain ignorant.  The SEC hasn't been on the verge of imploding twice in the last 3 years, the Big 12 has.  The SEC has been the predator, taking Moo and collie cult, the Big 12 has been the prey.  SEC has plenty of money, great fanbase, etc. 

[Panjandrum]

Talking about teams leaving the SEC for the Big 12 is just plain ignorant.  The SEC hasn't been on the verge of imploding twice in the last 3 years, the Big 12 has.  The SEC has been the predator, taking Moo and collie cult, the Big 12 has been the prey.  SEC has plenty of money, great fanbase, etc.

No one is leaving the SEC.

However, I think at least one 14 team conference is going to want to shed a couple of mouths in about 10-12 years.