There is a very strong, compelling argument that the Big 12 is the conference best situated to come out of the playoff era in it's current format as the most profitable and stable conference.
As long as the prestige the Big 12 lost doesn't hurt us too badly in the short term, I agree that the Big 12 has an excellent chance at survival.
But most profitable and most stable? I don't see it.
You say the SEC looks like it is going to have $25 million in TV revenue with the SEC Network added in. That's as much as the Big 12 distributes in total, including TV, Bowl, NCAA tourney, Big 12 tourney, etc. And I think the new Big Ten TV contracts in a couple of years will blow everyone elses out of the water.
And there are zero teams in the SEC or Big Ten that have wandering eyes or are having any thoughts about jumping ship. For one thing, the Big Ten has a GOR that last about three times as long as ours. For another, the SEC is the best conference in the country by far and no one is interested in leaving it. Plus, the Pac 12 is extremely stable as well, if for no other reason than because it is so geographically isolated.
The Big 12 has a very good chance at keeping its seat at the table, but we are by no means at the head of the table.
Our T3 deals added in will put us over 25 million. Then we start getting into the other stuff.
People say that our $26 million is some static number. It's backloaded just like everyone else's. Dennis Dodd had that piece last fall that estimated our total conference take may end up being in the $40 million range in the latter part of this decade, and that's helped by us having less mouths to feed. And, again, that doesn't count T3 money.
The benefit of our model is that we get max value from T1 and T2. Other conferences sacrifice either T2 or T3 dollars in a swap for their network programming. We can maximize every dollar at a level befitting of the school.
Again, the main point is that every other conference is banking that these networks are going to be as profitable in 2025 as they are today. The trend that I linked shows that a subscriber based cable model has most likely plateaued, especially for these niche networks. People in California don't give a crap about the SEC, so they aren't going to pay for the sports package that this is bundled with. And to prevent the cord cutting slide, all college networks are going to a special tier with other niche sports networks eventually.
However, the Big 12 has insulated their product on channels that make their hay on PRO sports. ESPN and Fox will still be on basic so people can get all of the pro sports they crave. Even most of the teams in the conference have sold their rights to regional networks that are propped up by the NBA and pro baseball. Our distribution mechanism is shielded by the popularity of pro sports, which bodes well for us in the future.
The bottom line is that we have placed ourselves in an extremely lucrative and SAFE position. There is nothing speculative about our approach. The other conferences are banking on this conference specific network to pan out, but the odds are that it's growth will be marginal at best and less profitable at worst.
