Personally, I think the only Big 12 school that's a threat to leave to the Big Ten is Missouri.
When I go all 'conspiracy theory' on this, I think there are two grand plans at work by the Big Ten:
1) Go after schools in major markets to try and get the Big Ten Network on as many basic cable packages as possible ($$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$)
2) Dismantle the Big East to finally force Notre Dame's hand into joining the conference
Here's the deal...I'd venture to guess that if Notre Dame agreed to join the Big Ten tomorrow, it's all over. Expansion talk done. You now have the biggest national draw in all of college football under your umbrella. Want to see ND games? Put the BTN on your basic cable package or watch every Catholic camp out in front of their cable provider like it's an abortion clinic.
If they want to go to 16 teams, sack the Big East, take Rutgers (NJ/NY), Pitt (Pittsburgh), Syracuse (the true state school of NY), and watch the conference fall apart. Tell ND that if they want to be relevant in any sport, including football, they better join now because it's their last chance. Then, they'll round out the conference with Missouri and/or NU. I don't think they'll take both. And, frankly, given how NU is one of of the ruling parties of the Big 12, they'd probably rather stick around and party in a very weak North division.
Once MU bolts, and if CU bolts to the Pac-10 (which doesn't seem like a slam dunk considering their AD is a perennial mess), go out and get two of the following three (Utah, Memphis, Louisville).
Personally, as we kind of look at all of the scenarios, I don't think we'll be left without a chair...yet. The domino effect happens if the SEC wants to retaliate, and given that they're more into getting money from a network as opposed to starting their own, we're safe for a few years. The Big 12 can replace Missouri and Colorado. It won't be a good replacement, but it can be done.
What NEEDS to happen is for the Big 12 and the Pac-10 to start talking about forming a network of our own. We don't need to add teams to our conference as much as get a network together. If the Pac-10 became the Pac-12, and they merged networks with the Big 12, we're talking about 24 schools covering nearly every state west of the Mississippi. That would be enough content to keep a cable channel afloat and enough interest to probably get as much play as the BTN. Sure, the payouts would be less, but I'm sure it would be more than all of these schools are capable of getting if they tried playing with the conference mixes.
