https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crops/article/2025/08/08/results-2025-dtn-digital-yield-tour?fbclid=IwQ0xDSwMMnZRjbGNrAwydjmV4dG4DYWVtAjExAAEenAgnWM8kyysTDc8GDDHI7nYLbbJ7AFzjiKma5z0pABz6XwnccPugkM0pyw4_aem_fmpX1iOnbRzzsSsjl2jtigThe U.S. corn crop could break through trendline yield estimates for the first time since 2018, setting a new national record in the process, according to the results of the 2025 DTN Digital Yield Tour.
All 11 states included in the tour are forecast to exceed their five-year corn yield averages. While only one state is forecast to set a record, four others are forecast to produce their second-largest yield averages, lifting the prospects of a trendline-or-better national average.
USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) estimates trendline corn yield at 181.5 bushels per acre (bpa). The last time corn yields surpassed the trendline estimate was in 2018, when final yields came in at 176.4 bpa compared to the 174 bpa trend, DTN Lead Analyst Rhett Montgomery said.
"Interestingly, conditions to end July that year were very similar to what we are seeing this year," he said, referencing USDA's crop condition ratings. "Let's just say we outproduce the trend by a similar percentage as in 2018, that would point to a 183.5 bushel per acre yield, conservative compared to some private analysts."
Soybean yield estimates, although strong, are running close to historical averages.
"For the vast majority of the Corn Belt, rainfall has been great -- frequent and moderate to heavy," said DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick. DTN's reporting highlighted the pockets of trouble, which are often due to too much moisture this year.
Over the week, DTN published details about corn and soybean crops in 11 states.
Digital Yield Tour estimates are based on DTN's proprietary yield models as of Aug. 1. The models update every two weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts. Like 2024, the tour will not be releasing national yield estimates. DTN's models forecast at the field level. While statistical inferences could be made to generate national estimates, DTN is still doing its diligence on the accuracy of those methods. You can read more about how DTN's models work here:
