so, Day 1 of the 30-second shot clock experiment is in the books, and i suspect all the wrong conclusions will be drawn. kenpom wrote a post today where he noted that almost every NIT, CBI and CIT over/under was bet up by close to 10 points, on average. while this is true, it's largely irrelevant, because...
a) NIT, CBI, and CIT totals get bet over immediately at open every year (typically by an average of 3 pts, almost regardless of number). teams don't take these mostly pointless tourneys as seriously as they do league play, so tempo naturally speeds up, and games are more free flowing.
b) the opening #'s were terrible. CRIS used full-season KP projected totals with very slight adjustments, and apparently didn't realize that his projections presumed a 35-second clock rather than a 30-second clock. so, while i'll concede that the betting market assumed more possessions (and consequently more points), the line moves will be far less pronounced tomorrow...when the opening lines won't be as terrible.
overs went just 8-7 on the day against the closing line. the illinois game and jmu game went over very late and easily could have gone under. so, i wouldn't say anything super out of the ordinary occurred.
the miami-nc central game had a 52 tempo at halftime and finished 58 for the game (less than projected). the bowling green-st francis game had a 57 tempo at halftime and finished 61 for the game (below projected). Pitt-GW finished 64 (but was closer to 60 at halftime) and wasn't much above projected pace.
other tempos:
montana-a&m 64 (at projected)
JMU-Upstate 61 (slower than projected)
Norfolk-EKU 64 (slower than projected)
Lafayette-Incarnate Word 70 (slower than projected)
Oakland-Eastern Illinois 81 (far faster than projected)
Murray St-UTEP 70 (faster than projected, but tons of fouls)
Illinois-Alabama 63 (slower than projected)
Tulsa-W&M 63 (slower than projected)
Iona-Rhode Island 80 (far faster than projected, but 65 FT's inflated it)
La Tech-CMU 76 (faster than projected)
games involving slow vs slow teams exclusively finished 64 tempo or lower. the average tempo of all games played was 67.3, which is probably a decently fair estimate considering there was a good mix of fast, average and slow paced teams. obviously, the sample is still too small, but the tempo compares similarly to the 66.5 average tempo we saw in non-con play.
if i were to guess, the shot clock change won't have a dramatic effect on scoring. i still think you'll see teams grind out games in league play, and i still think efficiency is going to become more of a problem (i.e., defenses will have more motivation to force long possessions, and offenses will be forced to take rushed shots more frequently). jim larranaga mentioned earlier today that he thinks teams would use more 3/4 court pressure to slow down opposing offenses, as well as more zone, including varying looks designed to confuse.
anybody else have any observations?
